Knocking On The Heaven's Door, But Ringing Hells Bells
I sometimes get pissed off by some so called crypto gurus on twitter with their cheap repetitive wisdom and when that happens, I often times open my blog and start pouring that poison into my blog. Some guy today was comparing the year of 2022(at least what we had so far) with 2018 from the perspective of the markets behavior.
These individuals are back again at looking for previous patterns that shall repeat, trying to predict, tell the fortune and create noise. No one is talking about the fact that 2021 was nothing like 2017 for example. Like literally totally different. The only common thing the two years have had in common was that both have offered massive profit making opportunities.
If 2021 hasn't replicated 2017, why would 2022 do that with 2018? It won't. I was scrolling through coingecko earlier today and looking at how much have some altcoins dumped for the past half of year or so, after most of them have peaked and, to my surprise, the only ones holding quite astonishing, pretty much like Bitcoin actually, were BNB and ETH.
If you look at ADA, XRP, SOL, DOGE, SHIB, DOT, CRO, LTC LINK AND XTZ(the past two being quite some performers in 2019-2020), all have lost something between 80% to 86% of their peak valuation. That's bear market correction for sure. Does that mean is it now time to buy?
I literally have no clue, I don't have a crystal ball, but 80% correction on an altcoin is pretty good deal to me. It doesn't mean that that particular altcoin can't bleed further to 95% correction or even more, but it's not like buying ADA at $1 or DOGE at $0.50. Most of the crypto offerings are on discount.
New bull run, new shitcoins. @enforcer48 had a post today with one of his workmates wearing a SHIB t-shirt and my comment was that SHIB doesn't have to be a performer in the next bull run. SHIB was not around in 2016-2017 and who knows what other shitcoins will rock the show in the next bull market, whenever that may be.
Can you imagine that a top 10 crypto hasn't even reached its 2017 ATH in 2021? Yes, that's not fiction and it's XRP that I'm talking about. It's not disappointing, cuz XRP is garbage, it should be #300 or something like that. What's disappointing is that HIVE has corrected -85.5% since six months ago. This thing is a machine, but unfortunately it doesn't get the exposure it deserves.
I find it interesting for this bear market, as we can no longer call it a bull market, that most of the altcoins have corrected 80% or more in just six months. Again, that doesn't mean that the bear market is over, you can clearly see that from the current prices and weak demand for crypto, but this is telling me that things have changed.
The industry has speed up its cycles and those four years patterns we once used to have might not be repeated to the comma, as we have been accustomed so far. What do you think, by the way, is 2022 going to replicate the year of 2018 in terms of price action?
Thanks for attention,
Adrian
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2018 is a different year from 2022 but irrespective of what happen maybe history will repeat itself or not we must have a perfect strategy in place to battle bear market.
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History repeats and it doesn’t, it’s impossible to compare years, it would not surprise me if we test all time highs by the end of the year… Anything is possible with crypto!
True. What I find particularly odd is that people are starting lately to compare the year of 2018 with 2022. If 2021 was nothing like 2017 why the fuck will 2022 be like 2018? 2021 was full of failed predictions and patterns and so will 2022 be. I won't contest the bear market, but I believe it will be somehow different. So much has changed including the peaking patterns.
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I think it's possible for it to be similar and it might become the truth because people are looking at the chart in that direction. I just think the economy isn't looking great and I don't see how the markets will do well when things keep getting worst.
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Then we're gonna have a bear market worse than the 2018 one. Back then we had no recession or anything. That's what I keep saying: whole different metrics.
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2022 is certain to be quite different than 2018. Macroeconomic and geopolitical circumstances are completely different. Cryptosphere is quite different.
And we, as some born again bears and FUDsters like to remind us, have Bitcoin doing some things that it haven't done before, like ending with seven weekly red candles.
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