Mind the Black Swans of Splinterlands

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Are you expecting that the price for Chaos Legion packs will drop after the pre-sale? Do you think that SPS will tank once it won't provide vouchers for stakers? Instinctively, that is what I would expect now but we should all be aware that Splinterlands has a reputation to produce black swans that make the game kind of unpredictable...


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33 comments
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Awesome topic! The black swan event for me was the change of the reward system for bronze players last month because I just joined at that time so it caught me by surprise.

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That is a very good example. It makes strategical planning for the game so much more complicated :-)

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That us about when I started playing, but have been so focused on just collecting cards and learning gameplay that I have not thought of any of these things lol

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I have learned a lot from watching your videos, and of course, your Splinterlands Academy, which is just excellent instruction on the game of Splinterlands.
I am so short sited I was not even thinking of the "what if SPS devalues" I have just been collecting and staking lol

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Don't worry there are so many parameters in play, I believe nobody can really make a nice prediction. So sometimes it's just better to concentrate on the today stuff and not think too much in advance :-)

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Given the huge number of new players coming on board every week I think that demand will continue to rise and thus so will prices.

This level of demand dominates supply side issues.

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When I see how the rental market is working, I can only imagine how people will jump on the packs once they get slightly cheaper. I have the feeling that in the future it will be almost impossible to have fully developed cards because of this rising demand.

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Well I think once the benefits from the chaos legion pre-sale ends, prices should drop. It's very similar to the hype and eventually the hype will die down. I still think SPS will go back up in price eventually. However SPS should recover over time.

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

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That's what I would expect as well but who knows if Splinterlands won't present a new partnership and SPS goes through the roof lol.

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I guess the only thing that we can predict is that things in Splinterlands are going to be unpredictable. I took the advice that you mentioned in your comment on Chris's post and bought a couple packs of CHAOS in Hive Engine instead of trying to use VoUCHER. I sold the VOUCHER I had to get more Hive to buy more Index. I hope to get some more CHAOS but may just sell them and not open them.

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Hey @lisamgentile1961 if your prediction turns out to be wrong, and Splinterlands becomes predictable, then, at least in this instance, it will have become unpredictable by becoming predictable! He he, I couldn't resist that! :)

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The great thing about the Chaos packs is that it will give you sps every day even if you don't play the game. With your cards and the chaos packs you should get daily airdrop in SPS.

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Is there something else I need to do with them besides just buy and hold them, Achim? I notice they don't show up in Splinterlands when I log in to my account. Thanks in advance for your help and Enjoy your day! 😀



Made in Canva

-- @lisamgentile1961

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When you buy them on hive-engine they will stay there but you can import them in the game. For the daily airdrop, Splinterlands will go through your hive-engine account as well. So you don't need to import them.

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Thanks Achim! Blain helped me to get it over to Splinterlands today. Chris found an article he sent me with some steps but for some reason it didn't work that way. So now my CHAOS packs are in Splinterlands. Have a great day!😀



Made in Canva

-- @lisamgentile1961

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What what WHAT? I didn't know that. So if I buy Chaos packs, I'm going to get some SPS every day just for having them? Does it count if I open them?

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Yes for every Chaos Pack, you will get 300 points that count for the SPS airdrop. Once you open the packs, you will still get airdrop because of the burn value of the cards that you have. At the moment it's not possible to open them yet.

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I learned to not overcomplicate things. Buy as soon as something is available, for the best price you can. Smarter strategies are sometimes risky, as you mentioned with land and waiting to buy it after presale from open market.

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I've realized one thing about Splinterlands and it's that it's kind of unpredictable especially price wise. So I do a kind of dollar averaging. For example I stake all my SPS but sell 40 every day for hive. I sell my vouchers but reinvest 50% of the proceeds into the game. I don't care the prices and I don't care the opportunities but like that I'm sure that I can actually realise some profits and also increase my game assets.

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I need to take out some profits too.

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LOL your in deep @achim03 mate.
Slowly building my collection.
One step at a time.
Great video my friend thanks for the info.
Have an awesome day
iamahivelover2.png

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