Chinas Economy Is On The Verge Of Collapse

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Chinas Economy Is On The Verge Of Collapse

Chinas economy might be much worse than many thought. What started gaining attention to all of this was the great collapse of the house business Evergrande back in 2021. Since then there's been a coverup to show face and it's only getting worse and worse.

With headlines now of Chinese homebuyers withholding mortgage payments for unfinished projects, a protest outside of banks demanding their savings money which turned violent and locked up many, housing developer crisis and more.

The Rise

China has been hammering it out as of the last few years in a all out effort to overtake the USD as the leading worlds currency. So far they have done a pretty decent job of it with US imports over 20% coming from China

Is Issue

With that many short cuts and shady tactics have taken place not only on its people but also from companies and businesses. Just as the government is trying to screw over the man it seems like businesses are starting to

The Collapse

It's speculated the China could very well default into a great depression within the next one to six months. This speculation comes from the following news and insights we know about the businesses, people and government there.

At the core of it all real estate once again is at its core. Just like the USA had a real estate bubble it seems like China is currently in one and that bubble has burst big time.

In 2018 and 2019 investors including every day people with some extra month invested into real estate, bought second properties and even started investing into buildings that were not even built yet in speculation that it would be cheaper to buy it now then it would be later. The thought was also it could always be sold later for a profit. Well once that starts happening we all know where that eventually turns right? A VERY over bought system with a ton of supply and a lowering demand.

To throw more on to the fire...

Builders

Builders have been speculated that they took investors funds and only started to build a property at a slow rate and then move a large portion of those funds out of the country. This caused a drastic slow down in building further driving up prices while builders seem to cash in the huge amounts of cream at the top into potential safe havens outside of the country.

Just take a look at stocks like Sunac China Holding Limited or Evergrade it starts to paint the starting of a very very bad mix.

Chinas banking system

The way most banking systems in the world work is what is called fractional banking. Here in the US a bank is required to have 10% of all funds on hand at all times while the other 90% the bank can loan out or do whatever they want with (for the most part) to further build capital. To me this is what is know as a modern day loan shark that is some how legal.

Well China once had this same policy however because of the boom and to try and grow the economy even faster they decided to lower that 10% required for banks. This now means many banks are sitting on far less than 10% of peoples money on hand to give back to them.

Think of it this way. Citizen A puts $1,000 into the bank. The bank then keeps $100 of that on hand a liquidity while $900 is loaned out or put into other what should be stable investments. For instance if you don't pay back your loan your car or house go to the bank.

And they say crypto and trading crypto is the real issue lol

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Well I strongly believe China is among some countries with a better economic system so I hope they should be able to do well out of the crisis

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Their economy is trashed at the moment. People can't take their own money out of banks, businesses have run away with billions and their largest real estate businesses are defaulting on their loans which is huge because 70% of peoples investments are in realestate there.

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Well even at that I really do believe in them that they will surely get back to their track ASAP

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If china goes down it takes the US along with them, remember China is the biggest holder of US treasuries, if they need to liquidate they force the US to buy everything driving down the dollar to push up their yuan and they have gold reserves too

in addition their move to CBDC's can help them push off any crisis because they have more granular control

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It would hurt the US economy for sure along with everyone around the world. However we would recover from it just fine. A little bit of pain needs to happen once in a while so people get a reality check.

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And yet people keep saying they don't see how markets can go lower... the real estate sector makes up more than 25% of the national GDP. The residential vacancy rate in China is currently 12%... but hey inflation has peaked in the US. China's collapse has far more devastating effects than a 0.6% reduction in CPI... people are "emotionally bullish" right now, completely disconnected from data.

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I don't think so, it is all media mulch to defame China as a failing country, but what China has achieved in 70 years on its own no country could have done.

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China are really into it now and sometimes trying to get things done by force this is what we get. I know they will eventually get it right

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Great little tidbit about China's impending economic collapse. I've been waiting for this for years, I saw the PBOC intervention in capital markets a few years back as a sign that there was nothing holding property asset valuations up outside of the speculative fervor. Looks like I was right.

When Evergrande stock stopped trading on the OTC in the US, I knew what was coming next. The insiders would be trying to dump their shares as they declined in value, and the CCP doesn't like publicity of their financial ineptitude.

By centrally planning so much of the real estate sector, the CCP set up their own people for failure. Spec building was a symptom of the real estate bubble in the US in 2007-2008. Once that bubble burst, it took almost 10 years for the real estate market to resume its merciless speculative run.

One thing, US banks are no longer required to keep 10% cash reserves on hand. The Federal Reserve removed that as a requirement in 2020, probably not the best idea, since they fear bankruns and don't want to get caught with no liquidity to pay out withdrawals

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