Will SPS and Chaos Packs Rebound?

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Will SPS and Chaos Packs Rebound?

While we had a first day of impressive numbers today we saw a heavy tanking in the system and I contribute that to a few things. My hope is that the Splinterlands team finds this as constructive feedback and nothing more and nothing less.

This by no means says I'm right on these matters they are simply my observations and opinions. I'd be interested to hear your thoughts on the matters as well as more feedback is highly important from the player base.

My original targets put vouchers at low end $20 and high end $50 and SPS token at over $1 however as we can see we are falling fast off of these numbers and there's a few reasons why I feel that is happening.

Vouchers

Vouchers are a great idea however there's a very limited supply of SPS right now and not all of the SPS is currently being dropped that was in the white paper. About half is still not dropping which I can understand since much of the player base can't play because of very high older pack costs. (SPS for ranked battles or Brawl battles for example) This greatly limits who's getting SPS from the airdrop right now and also how others can get involved into the SPS airdrop besides buying it directly off the market.

Vouchers sadly are only a hive-engine token. Which means limited reach as the hive community itself and people understanding it is still low. (Sure this might help to boost a few people to get more involved with Hive but for many new players they joined the game and honestly don't even realize it's running on Hive.

I feel like Vouchers should have been able to be tokenized on Wax as well just like packs, cards, land etc all are. That's a MASSIVE gaming audience that you're currently not reaching by not having vouchers on there.

The Packs

NO pack opening = no real demand besides pure speculation and no ideas about the rewards it's very unknown about what card we will get for the promo prelaunch sale. I contribute a falling and low pack price to the following.

  1. Sure you can buy packs but there's no value to holding on to them. To me it would have made more sense that in order to get the bonuses you have to buy the packs but also open them locking them to your account. These would then count towards your goals not simply buying them and being able to resell them on secondary markets that pretty much crushes any value of the packs right then and there especially because of number two listed below.

  2. You simply can't open the packs yet. This sucks! Now you loss all the hype of opening up packs, getting new cards and showing them off to everyone which creates a buying FOMO frenzy as people want in on it. This in itself would have driven up pack price values and more importantly people wanting to buy SPS and stake it. Instead you're stuck with a pack icon that looks the same as everyone else and at the moment does nothing but gives you 300 airdrop points which in DEC value would be about $3 - $4

I hear they don't want a flood of new cards right away but isn't that what you're doing right now? 1 million packs themselves are being locked in before a single one can be opened. It seems very counter productive.

Will Chaos packs increase in price?

I think so but it's going to be a while and it most likely is going to greatly depend on how after presale launch goes and how it's done. Once all of the packs are sold out prices will start to climb as people will want to max out their cards who haven't already and the only way to do that is going to be buying packs off the secondary markets.

We can see that here with current prices.
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  • Plots are at all new highs so there's demand for those as more and more talk comes out about them and limited supply.
  • Untamed packs are selling for over $50
  • Chaos packs which you can't do anything with and the unknown about how the $4 packs after prelaunch will be sold to the general public also are dragging down the price as the general feeling this current setup gives people is that for the cost of a voucher and the cost of a $4 pack I'm not gaining anything really besides the possibility at an exclusive card.
  • Dice packs are going for $60+

Besides that few if anyone really cares about the title for buying 1,000 packs and few if any care about the being the top 6. (A live-ish leaderboard would be helpful on this) but more importantly it really just comes down to a few large accounts that are gobbling up vouchers. I would have liked to have seen the cut off point of SPS being lower around 500,000 or ever 250,000 and not 1,000,000 to better divide vouchers up to more players.

All this is doing is creating a small portion of top accounts to battle it out with each other and really doesn't do any benefit to getting any new players and even some older players to want to get in on this. Worse though is what I stated above. These mega accounts simply have to buy the packs to get the bonuses, requiring them to buy and open the pack at least would have driven up demand a bit more.

SPS (Splintershards)

There's too many unknowns on this right now as well. There are still half of the SPS that should be awarded for actions in the game that still are not going out. I understand the delay on some of these because it's hard for any new players to really get involved with things such as earning SPS in Guild brawls and also ranked battles. That's why I feel shorter after 2-4 weeks after Chaos packs go live to everyone that this will then be implemented as it's a more fair playground for all players to get those rewards.

As I said above I don't have the answers and it doesn't mean this is right. They are simply my views and opinions and I would love to hear yours in the comment section and start discussions about it.

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forgive me for my ignorance, but i would prefered that the splinterlands team just release all the packs on the market without the necessity of having a voucher.

i think they would make more impact by doing that, people get tired of waiting sometimes...

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There needs to be a planned release otherwise you will have the top few buying up all of the packs and then selling them for a mint which can bottleneck a game. I've seen it happen to many games over on the Wax blockchain in the past. They need to be more evenly spread out such as a drop to all active players with a timed release. Say you can claim 10 vouchers every hour after prelaunch. Wax kind of has systems in place for this which makes it so one account can only buy a pack once an hour or once ever 15 minutes. Or whitelisting of accounts to be able to buy and with a time release. It helps to divide it up instead of a few price gouging the heck out of it.

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Yeah I'm just itching to open some packs...I'm sitting here debating whether or not to buy Untamed and Dice packs...Just to feed my addiction lol

Great points though man, I hope they have some stuff throughout this air drop to keep people excited and engaged!

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Oh I'm pumped for lower prices it means I have a very real chance to get that 1,000 packs I don't think 2,000 is in the books though lol I wish but I'd have to sell my soul haha

It just feels like it has limited reach at the moment but many of those things could be updated I would think. Will see how this week plays out before making any moves I think. But heck yeah I wanna open up some packs!!! Some how I'm getting less and less vouchers each day even though I stake EVERYTHING lol so there's some seriously big heavy hitters in this game.

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that's the thing for me...I'm all for going in heavy on the packs...but the Vouchers are keeping me humble LOLOL

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Yea.. it was kind of anti-climactic.
I'm glad that I'm staking at my means, and gonna be able to get a few vouchers for packs by the end of the 30 days

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$20 to $50 for VOUCHERs was always unrealistic in my mind. You may see them spike again towards the end, but there are going to be FIFTEEN MILLION Chaos Legion packs coming on the market. More power to anyone paying that much for these early VOUCHERs but I sold mine. And will probably continue to sell them if the price stays over 20 HIVE per ticket.

Coupled with the fact that the initial hype is going to wear off is the fact that another 33,333 VOUCHERs are released into circulation EVERY DAY. That's a half a million dollars worth of cards at $15 per VOUCHER; $666k at $20. If I get one VOUCHER per day and I can sell it for $20 then that means I will be able to buy 150 packs later FOR FREE. Sure I miss out on the first round of potential promo cards, but with only 30 packs, my odds of getting one weren't all that great anyway. Personally, it feels like my odds will be much greater with 150 packs, again, without putting in any new money. That's $600 I can use to buy the cards I actually want once we figure out which ones are best.

I think the #Splinterlands team is doing this right. The last thing they want to do is have 400,000 of the 417,000 users feel like they're being priced out of the game. The big money can do what it wants, but the little guys (myself included) are going to be able to get our share of the pie as well.

As for adding WAX....? I love the fact that they're making it Hive-Engine only. HIVE is the blockchain that makes it all work. They should be getting the "exclusive" on these things. It will only benefit the entire HIVE community to have these users forced to learn about what HIVE is if they want to participate in buying or selling their VOUCHERs. It only makes the ecosystem stronger in the long run and adds exposure to the best blockchain in existence.

In hindsight, I don't disagree with your idea that the cut-off number maybe should have been a little lower, but they also need to take care of the people that helped get them here. Without all the early contributors there wouldn't be the hundreds of thousands of users it now has. It would be nice to have it spread a little more evenly though. By the same token though, it has forced many of the bigger accounts to buy and stake 1M SPS. Not necessarily a bad thing. There's ultimately going to be 600M(?) SPS on the market I think, so unless they want it trading for pennies forever, they needed to get a bunch locked up. This helps incentivize people to do that.

Anyway, those are my thoughts. I'll continue to watch and see how things unfold. Maybe, as you said, they'll come down far enough where I forego selling and instead become a buyer. It's the market and it's crypto. Two very solid reasons anything can happen.

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I totally understand that viewpoint for sure. But when you have other packs going for $50 + there's not much reason it shouldn't go for $30+ on the vouchers. I think there's too many unknowns and it's confusing the market at the moment.

Right now everyone is under the thought you have which I totally agree with and it's lack of info and understand about what happens AFTER presale.

Will 14 million packs just be opened up for anyone to buy as many as they want for $4 each?
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Will they slowly be released out and still require vouchers that would drop to SPS token holders but at a faster rate then then 33,333 currently being released during prelaunch?

Without that info right now I feel everyone expects well I can just wait and get $4 packs in 30 or so days and buy as many as I want. I don't think that will be the case though it seems crazy that it would be the case because that totally voids any presale hype in my opinion and totally under minds the value of the exclusive card and some of the other bonuses as well simply not worth it.

If we don't get any kind of details soon I highly expect vouchers to go for dirt cheap and to a very select few people.

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The current crazy high prices. That is what confusing the market. I remember buying the beta starter set on 2018.12.30 for $10 USD worth of Steem, and even that was expensive for me (and for many other people).

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in last AMA Yaba said that aftert he pre-sale ends packs will be bought with vouchers again...it will just be less than 1 voucher per pack...so i think we will not get rid of vouchers so easy
i dont think the price of them would hit $50, i consider this price totally unrealistic, there's no point to buy at this price ,,,literally there no point

even the price of $16 is very high....i think a price that would make sense is about 2-3 dollars max....i do wonder myself who is buying at these limits...cause someone is buying these vouchers

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Yes. I agree with you. These Vouchers were overvalued straight from the beginning. And many people still cannot afford them, even at these "lower" prices.

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I definitely agree the SPS rewards for ranked and guild brawl should be ASAP, so people who play the game earn SPS also.

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It's so difficult to tell, all I know is that I'm not THAT interested in buying packs now, there's no point.

And the problem with being T6 - someone's going to end up being Neal - you end up putting all that effort into thinking up a summoner and then the team make it a bit shit!

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I do find $20 for a couher overrated at this point unless there would be the abilty to open a pack already. That would create mass hype and people locking up everythiing to get their hands on cards which noone can have as yet

Right now it feels like I am using my vouchers to maybe get hands on the airdrop of cards, but that is a maybe with my 1 voucher every two days, I do get this is for sustainable point of view that is not done but damn i would have loved the hype around that

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Very well thought out and even if it were a scathing critique, why not? People don't have to be sugarcoated all the time, even game developers.
Your two points on pack openings crossed my mind as well. It would have been an incentive even for small investors/players like me, to get into this phase, when I could have opened and played with the new cards right away and only by opening, you would have earned the right to a potential airdrop.
But it feels like, this is an investors game now and the team tries to cater more to them, as to the broad playerbase. I may be wrong, but it feels like it. Short-term gains won't sustain a really great game, when the playerbase is seen as a cashcow.

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Hi @bitcoinflood
I agree that I personally would have airdropped vouchers to active players, in greater quantities because It’s sad to see people looking at 0.04 vouchers, knowing they may never be able to buy a pack.

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