BMR for 6th Nov 2021 - Saturday Edition

Here is a chart/screen shot from 2019 on this day for Bitcoin for comparison.

I want to thank @mba2020 for a question yesterday. I am no financial expert. What I do is look at the markets daily and do A LOT of reading. So this is not advice just how I see things.

Funny how we all feel the need to say that. But back to the question:

"There is a lot of speculation that Bitcoin will break 100,000 in USD.

Do you think this is hype, or is there some realism to such an incredible price increase?"

I personally do not believe it is hype. I think the 100K mark is going to be easy. Many times I have stated by the end of 2021 but I am only guessing and going by my readings. I do see 1,000,000 in 10 years or less. Is that a bold statement?

One think I do love when I am asked a question and I do my daily (or almost daily) internet search about Bitcoin, is when I find something that fits 100 percent and from a great source.

This one is from Nasdaq! When talking about markets this seems like a great source for analysis. Estimating This Cycle's Bitcoin Price Top. I will give a couple quotes from the article.

The author talks about spent output profit ratio (SOPR) trends. And I never really heard of this before. But make total sense to me.

"SOPR tells us price sold over price paid, indicating what profit levels long-term holders realized in the past. At the peak price over previous all-time highs in 2018 and 2021, long-term holder SOPR peaked at 20.74 and 9.04, respectively. Said otherwise, that’s 1,974% and 804% realized profit."

"For example, the long-term holder cost basis is now $17,751. If long-term holders look to take the same level of profits like they did at the previous all-time high (804%), the cycle price would need to be $160,469. If they expected to take profit levels at the peak in January 2018 (1,974%), the cycle price would need to be $368,157. A midpoint between the two would be 1,389% with a price around $264,000."

Now as many many people will tell you and as my friend @flaxz replied to @mba2020 is that the markets always tend to go up in the long run. And the last statement from the Nasdaq article sums it up nicely.

"After all, we’re not stacking sats to just get rid of them at cycle tops. This is a multi-decade adoption thesis where timing the local cycle tops won’t matter in the long-run."

My take away from that last statement is that people are always going to profit take, so Bitcoin will always go up and down but the long term is up.

I hope that answers your question. It went a lot longer than I thought it would. lol

2020

2019

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Have a great day all.

Bradley

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