Bitcoin Mining Lottery - Solo Mining

Bitcoin mining is the process of using specialized software and hardware to solve mathematical problems in order to verify transactions and create new bitcoins. Miners are then rewarded with new bitcoins and transaction fees for their efforts.

That is mining in a nutshell. I've made a couple of posts about the mining simulator game Rollercoin but there was a time when I was actually looking into the possibility of starting to mine Bitcoin myself. I had done my research and calculations and had even bought two GPUs & other parts.

The war in Ukraine started to reflect the rest of Europe and the electricity costs went high. Then the Terra Luna disaster happened I lost a big part of my portfolio. So, I abandoned the idea, sold the parts, and was only left with a skeleton of what was supposed to be my first mining rig.

Still, before all the FUD I had studied the subject and learned a thing or two. I understood that it's highly recommended to join a mining pool and combine your recourses with other miners to increase the chance of solving a block faster. Rewards are then shared among the miners based on the power they have contributed.

But Can I Win The Whole Thing?

Now let's get to the interesting part. I'm not very active on Reddit but just the other day I got a pop-up notification in which someone was asking an interesting question:

Is it possible for an individual to randomly "mine" a BitCoin - kind of like winning the lottery?

This led me to an interesting discussion about the probabilities of winning the BTC lottery. Could I solve a block using my 6-year-old PC and walk away with the current block reward of 6.25 BTC? Theoretically, yes. However, the chances for that to happen are extremely low. First of all, I would have to skip the joining the mining pool part and start solo mining, meaning I wouldn't be sharing the reward but the difficulty would also increase substantially.

I don't even know the possible mining power of my PC but the GPU is rather good so let's say it's 4 MH/s. My chances of solving the block are calculated by dividing that by the global hash rate which is 250 trillion MH/s. You do the math!

The Winner

I did some more research and read about this solo miner who got extremely lucky and solved a block with only 116 TH/s(0.000116 EH/s). Now, this is a lot of mining power but nothing compared to the biggest miners having a hashrate capacity between 1 to 5 EH/s.

It's nice to know that small-timers can get a win even for once. I still wonder though, can this kind of lottery mining be profitable in the long run? Probably not when the odds are so low compared to pool mining which would bring in more constant income.

Then there is this DIY guy who turned his Game Boy into a miner which runs at 0.8 H/s. What do you think are his chances of winning the block reward?

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Thank you for reading!