Euro 2020 Saturday 1/8 Finals Previews

almost 3 years ago

I am following the European Football Championship making previews on all matches while having some fun betting small stakes.

8 more matches in the next 4 days with the interesting 8th Finals that will be played. The plan is to continue in a similar way making previews while trying to find some bets worth taking keeping stakes small overall. I made a small loss in the last day of the group stake with the pre-game trading position on Slovakia not being any good.

Day #13 Bets

Total Day 13 Results 3 Bets | 2W-1L-0P | Staked 0.16 Units | -0.02 Units Loss

Total Starting Bankroll at risk = 2 Units

Full Flat Stake being 0.2 Units

Medium Stake 0.15 Units

Small Stake 0.10 Units

Tiny Stake 0.05 Units

Historical Statistics

I took a closer look at previous results in big tournaments in the round after the group stage just as a way to get a main reference for where lines and potential value might be.

In the last 5 European Championships there were 24 matches at this stage:

7 out of 24 Ended in a draw with extra time (29%), all but one had odds below 3.45 (29% based on 7/24)
10 out of 24 went over 2.5 goals over 90 minutes (equals 2.40 odds for break-even bets on over 2.5)
4 out of 24 matches ended in a big outright upset after 90 minutes (4.75 / 9.80 / 5.30 / 8.50 odds) which would have provided really good profit when blindly betting big underdogs.

Even though the sample size is too small to go by, it still shows anyone can win and the low total lines are likely justified.

Wales vs Denmark

Wales arguably had an easy group taking a not undeserved draw against Switzerland and win against Turkey who arguable were one of the weakest teams in the competition. They will be without defender Ethan Ampadu in this match and only managed to win 1 of their last 5 matches failing to score in 3 of those. They do have scoring potential with Bale & Ramsey. Denmark somehow managed to qualify with 3 points even though they are missing Erikssen who seems to be fine which I can see turning in motivation for the team instead of the initial emotional shock. The Danish side has scored at least 1 goal in 13 out of their last 14 matches (also only keeping 1 clean sheet in their last 5) and looked quite strong in the first half against Belgium and in the 4-1 win over a not-so-impressive Russia. With Denmark being the better team scoring nearly every match while Wales is missing an important defender they seem to be the deserved 1.961 odds favorite. The draw is always something to worry about in these matches as Wales likely will start out with a very defensive mindset. Denmark tends to do a lot better on corners but I hate to take a big handicap since an early goal can kill this. My eye will be on Denmark Team Total Over 1 & maybe Denmark -0.25 in-game if it stays a draw for a while and Denmark on corners if they fall behind. For now No Pre-Game bets

Italy vs Austria

Italy has been one of the better teams in the tournament so far taking 3 wins going 7-0 in goals now making it 11 straight wins with a clean sheet being unbeaten in their last 30 matches which is massively impressive. Austria played a really good match taking the deserved win against Ukraine despite the 0-1 score after losing 2-0 to the Netherlands in a match where they got an early goal behind. They are a side that tends to do well against mediocre opponents but almost systematically fail against stronger teams. It is just hard to look past Italy in this match given the impressive numbers they are able to put up. With Italy having gone 11 wins in a row with a clean sheet while Austria not having scored in 4 of their last 6 matches, the Italy Win To Nil @ 2.335 is a bet I had to take. Many of the 'sharper' bettors are also on it while odds went up quite a bit which makes me keep this as a tiny 0.05 unit stake. It remains a knock-out match and Austria to win as an upset @ 8.0 also is kind of tempting as a gamble but I will stay away.

Late info might change my view on what is written in these previews. I will cover these matches live in our SBC Discord Channel My Bankroll on this tournament is only 2 units with full stake bets being 0.2 units. I take all my Pre-Game & Live bets with my Betting Broker Sportmarket Pro who always provide the best offers on the market with a 1 click solution and don't limit winning players offering high limits. For more info check my Sportmarket Pro Review

Euro 2020 Betting Results

 Total 83 Bets | 36W-41L-6P | Units Staked 5.54 | +0.712 Profit | +12.86% ROI

IMPORTANT !
Past results don't guarantee Future Results. There are very few people that are equipped financially and psychologically to handle the ups and downs of gambling on a daily basis. If you're not a professional, every instinct you have will attempt and probably will sabotage your success. Human nature runs completely contrary to being successful at gambling. These bets are posted as a way to help myself in order to stay disciplined, always hold yourself accountable if you end up following. Proper Bankroll Management can highly decrease the risk of heavy losses!

I also plan to take some Beer bets in crypto. Full Guides to Decentralized Crypto Bookies I personally use where no KYC is required allowing anonymous betting from any location without individual limits for winning players...


Sportbet.one	Wagerr.com	Wink.org	Betfury.io

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1 comments

@abimbola753 58

almost 3 years ago

wow... analysis and good tips.
(With Italy having gone 11 wins in a row with a clean sheet while Austria not having scored in 4 of their last 6 matches, the Italy Win To Nil @ 2.335 is a bet I had to take)
to me 2.3335 odd is a good one.

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