BTC timing

As we all know cycles are getting longer and after each halving it takes longer and longer to find the peak of the bullrun.
We have as of a few days ago the length of the 2017 bullrun.

Bitcoin, also as its capitalization increases, goes to reduce the return on investment (ROI), especially after each halving.

To date, however, Bitcoin's statistics have been very useful in understanding its subsequent price movements.

The reduction in investment based on Bitcoin's past performance, seems to project the price in the vicinity of $200,000.

Knowing when to exit the market is just as important as knowing when to enter the market and on which asset.

In Bitcoin's previous retracement, the days of decline that led to finding the price low relative to that period were 14.

Leading to a price loss of about 25%. Followed then by a few days of consolidation.

Right now, only 11 days have passed and the price has only fallen by about 18%.

However, if we take the minimum price reached yesterday as valid, we should expect a few days of consolidation, before the trend restarts.

In conclusion, one last update on the crisis involving Evergrande.
In fact, China's largest real estate group seems to have calmed down after the payment of some last-second coupons, which averted a now certain default.
However, this does not mean that the worst is over, on the contrary, the road is so long that we still believe that default is highly probable.

This is also based on what was said yesterday by the rating agency S&P Global, which affirmed that the real estate group's default was highly probable.

Evergrande was the second largest Chinese developer by sales last year.
Like many Chinese developers, the company sold apartments to consumers before completion , helping to generate capital for future projects.
But that cash flow cycle is running into problems.
Despite the company's ability to sell assets and find ways to make payments on time, "Evergrande's enormous debt will catch up with it," the S&P report states.

"The company has lost the ability to sell new homes, which means its core business model is effectively defunct. This makes full repayment of its debts unlikely," the analysts said.

"We still believe an Evergrande default is highly likely," the report said.

A possible deadline for Evergrande's life can be estimated around March/April when offshore coupons of $3.5 billion are due.
But of course, it's too early to tell.

With that said, all that remains is for me to wish you all a good weekend.

Thanks for reading

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