The bull run is about to start
"Kraken Intelligence" analysts, in their latest article "A New Quarter" noted that at all previous Chinese bans, bitcoin has always rallied, rising 53% on average within about 3 months of the announcement of the individual ban.
The same analysts also report an important seasonal cadence in crypto.
As I've always said, September is among the worst months of the year for both exchanges and cryptos. And this year was no exception, with a 7% drop in btc price, perfectly in line with the historical average for the month.
So if the seasonality will continue to be confirmed, we have to consider that the last quarter of the year is historically the best one for cryptos, with an average increase per btc of about 119%...
That's why the title of Kraken's report ("A New Quarter") highlights the importance of the upcoming last quarter of 2021, where, according to analysts, to the effects of seasonal cadence will be added those of the "three-month law" related to Chinese bans. There will be fun to be had...
You can read the full report at this link: https://kraken.docsend.com/view/aueqmuiyhzad7fv2, here the post with the summary https://blog.kraken.com/post/11352/a-new-quarter/
SOURCE: https://blog.kraken.com.
I now propose another time constant, this time identified by Eric Wade of Stansberry Research https://stansberryresearch.com/our-team/eric-wade
The pattern always concerns the last quarter of this year, thus adding more meat to the fire of this period that looks really interesting.
It's all about the halving of btc.
Wade says that after the halving on July 9, 2016, btc did a rally split into two moments:
First it gained 300%, then it trended sideways and finally peaked, taking it to $20,000 for the first time in late 2017 .
Overall, the post-halving rally boosted btc by almost 3,000% in the 525 days after halving.
Let's compare this to btc's current behavior after halving on May 11, 2020: Bitcoin has already gained 550% in the 336 days since halving, up to its April peak at $60,000.
Today, we are 513 days away from bitcoin's 2020 halving. We are therefore just 2 weeks away from completing the 2016 pattern.
In fact, in 2 weeks we will be 525 days from the May 2020 halving.
So if the 2016 pattern repeats itself, we should not be very far from the "second half" (the explosive one) of the post-halving rally.
These temporal coincidences and historical constants may seem a bit "cabalistic". In reality, in statistics, constants are always highly sought after by analysts, because they hide submerged phenomena of which we would otherwise have no trace.
N
ormally it takes some time to discover the events that lead to the repetition of certain patterns. However, this type of research would not be possible if we did not have these coincidences and historical constants at our disposal.
Not only in economics, but in many other scientific disciplines that use statistics, the study of repetitive patterns is very important and has led to fundamental discoveries.
Thanks for reading.
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