$LEO: Fun with Numbers...#LFG
Elon Musk purchased Twitter for $44B last fall. Think about that. Forty-four billion dollars for an app that allows people to write little notes and post them on a message board. It's almost laughable that something so simple could be worth so much. Obviously there's a lot that goes into it behind the scenes to make it all work, but in a nutshell, that's what it is. Grandma can tell the world she forgot where she put her teeth, Jenny can tell everyone she hates oatmeal for breakfast, and Jimmy can "tweet" that he got a flat tire. All vital information to the world at large. Forty-four billion dollars. lol
It got me thinking about some numbers. @Khal posted this article/video yesterday talking about how $LEO hit a $1 last year with nothing even close to the tech behind it that we have now. And what we have now isn't even close to what we'll have within the next year. Everything is still being built and fleshed out at a rapid pace. It might not seem like it to those of us here every day, but it is. Don't believe me? Try turning this place off for a month or two and then try to catch up when you get back. You won't believe everything you will have missed.
@taskmaster4450le just posted this article asking people to think about where LeoFinance will be five years from now. Rome wasn't built in a day. Neither is anything else of real value. Twitter was founded March 21st, 2006. In other words, its taken 17 years of building to get it to where it is today. 17 years.
Leo is three years old. It's still a baby.
BUT, as the title of this article says, we're going to have some fun with numbers. Let's just do some math.
Here is the "info" screen from LeoDex on LeoFinance. (Looks like they need to do some updating and add in LeoThreads and maybe LeoGlossary into the description.)
According to this, the Max Supply is 1B tokens, of which only 14.255M have been issued. Of those, 10M are staked. That means the "float" is only around 4M tokens. They're trading for roughly 6 cents right now.
So, just for the fun of it, lets play around with these.
- 4M tokens * $.06 = $240,000 This means that someone could take 11 Bitcoin and buy up every loose $LEO token on the market. Obviously that couldn't happen because the price would move up dramatically as someone tried to buy that many $Leo at once, but....again, let's think about what this means. How many do you think would really be needed to be taken off the market for the price to go to $1? 200k? 1M? I don't know, but it wouldn't be anywhere near the 4M I'm thinking. Granted, some people would sell on the way up so...again, just for the heck of it, let's say all four million need to be purchased for the price to go to $1. How much money would that actually take? A large chunk would be bought in the pennies and then it would take less and less tokens to move the price, but they'd cost more and more as the price went up. So let's use $2.5M of buying to take LEO to $1. Khal wants 5000 more MAUs (monthly active users) by the end of the year. Divide $2.5M by 5000 users and you come up with only $500 per new active user. $500 of buying per user to take LEO from 6 cents to $1. Interesting.
Now, factor in the fact that Khal believes that adding 5000 MAUs will 10x ad revenue, which will be used to buy LEO off the market. I don't know what the current ad revenue is every month but say 10x would be $50k a month (that's got to be somewhere in the neighborhood). That's $600k of buying over a years time. Obviously it won't jump to that overnight but...remember that first little equation (4M * $.06 = $240k)? We're talking about the ad revenue being able to buy 2.5 times the total amount of LEO tokens unstaked right now over a years time. Of course, those numbers apply to LEO at 6 cents. So what does that mean? Well, I'm no rocket scientist but it seems to me 6 cents is a pretty good price. lol
How about another equation?
- The total circulating supply of LEO right now is 14M. Let's just round up and make it 20M. 20M * $5 = $100M. At $5 per $LEO the "market cap" would be $100M. To put that in perspective, that would rank it right around 270th according to CoinGecko right now. In other words, nowhere near the top of the list. Not even the top 200. Having been in the crypto space for almost 6 years now, I can honestly say I haven't found very many cryptos even close to offering the utility and functionality that LeoFinance does right now, let alone in the future. Certainly not 269 of them. $100M is a drop in the ocean, not even a bucket. The amount of money that will be flowing into the crypto space over the next few years will be astronomical in my opinion. Especially with the next bull run on the horizon. $100M is nothing.
If LeoThreads adds the 5000 MAUs, #CUB flips deflationary, #PolyCUB joins it, and the blogging site continues to chug along, the "value" residing underneath the LeoFinance umbrella will be immense. And don't forget the ThorCUBs and AvalancheCUBs of the world either. Leo is not done there yet. If and when they get CUB figured out as a sustainable defi platform, there are 10 other chains they could take it to bridging them all to Leo and Hive and creating tremendous utility for LeoFinance as being the place to go for everything crypto.
But lets not get too far ahead of ourselves. You can see why it takes time for these things to develop. Each building block adds more value and allows more blocks to be stacked on top of it. But those blocks aren't linear. They're exponential. One leads to two which leads to four which leads to eight, etc. The growth in the beginning while you are putting the "cornerstones" in place can be slow and unwieldy. But once they're there, the growth that can be built on top of them can happen extremely quickly.
It reminds me of building a house. Have you ever seen a construction project where it takes weeks of people moving dirt and digging holes and surveying and measuring and finally pouring foundations, and then all of a sudden a week later there's an entire house standing on top of it? That's what's happening with LeoFinance right now. The past three plus years have been spent laying that foundation (and it's still ongoing), but we're starting to get to the point where the house may be able to be built on top of it.
Bears are for building and Khal & Co have been doing just that. LeoThreads is ready to make it's way into the world shortly when the new UI is released for full Alpha testing. There are still lots of growing pains that will need to be dealt with. Don't expect this thing to just come out and light the world on fire. But it might. I fully expect there to be some serious issues that will need to be overcome in the process, but Khal has proven time and time again that he's in it for the long haul and will do whatever it takes to correct whatever needs correcting and keep building.
Speaking of Khal, back to numbers again. I commented on his post about Bitcoin going to $110k by the end of 2024 and he responded.
Me:
Bitcoin at $110k would be great and all, but I'll take LEO at $11.0 if you don't mind. Or how about $110? It's only decimals and commas... #lfg 🙂
Khal:
LFG
I think $1.1 is 99.9999% doable in the next bull cycle. $11 is definitely on the table if we can hit our MAU targets each quarter
Fun with numbers. This is obviously not financial advice.
To wrap it up, take Khal's posts about what is coming and how it will all feed into the LeoFinance umbrella, mix it with taskmaster's post about where we see LeoFinance being in another five years, and wrap it all up with my Fun with Numbers, and I think you can see the future is very, VERY bright. 😎
PS. Just for the hell of it...if $LEO gets to Twitters $44B valuation then it's $44 with every token issued. $440 with 100M which is seven times the number that's been issued over the last three years. Crazy. The only 100% real number we have right now is it costs less than 6 cents to buy a $LEO. Just sayin'...
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
I wish I have spare 1000 bucks right now. I would go and buy all $Leo out there :)
I actually read the whole post and I want to say it again that you are a good seller of dreams. It all make sense what you are saying. There is potential to this project and there are obstacles.
The last bull cycle for $Leo was fuelled by the speculation of the token going Defi when they launched the token on Uniswap. Leo token was the first one to blow up and crashed slowly back to its 0.25 support level.
I know that the team is working. And, I don't want to sound like a mood damper but I think the app the team is working on will set the tone for what happens next. I want to see the web app with the efficiency and edge no less than any other web2.0 app. We cannot keep arguing that we want to have 5K users giving them a subpar product to work with. Hope the team is listening. This is a positive comment. I am using #threads daily and I know how laggy the site is right now. It is unusable for any other social media connoisseurs out there.
Yes, the current form is just the first iteration of the product. The new UI will vastly improve it. Like I said in my post, Twitter took a few years to build and had first-mover advantage to help them explode. This is basically just over a year old and they had to start from scratch because they changed directions on how they wanted to implement it. I'm sure it will need more upgrades after this one comes out.
I'm not saying it's worth anything close to what Twitter is. It may never be. I just happen to think it's worth a lot more than 6 cents and if it does turn into the "gateway" to Hive, it could grow exponentially from there.
It's still very early but...the potential is there. Acquiring Leo is betting that Khal can build his vision. Personally, after seeing how he operates and what he's done over the last three years, I'm willing to take that bet.
I've been hanging around here for a while now and I see these posts about LEO but I have yet to see anyone say why LEO is going to go up. I guess I don't get the vision of LEO so I'm finally going to just ask someone.
Is there anything I can do if I have a lot of LEO that I can't do if I don't have a lot of LEO? Is it just influence? Is there something more?
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At this point, no. You can obviously help distribute it by voting, same as Hive. The more LeoPower you have, the more your votes are worth. As of now, the biggest driver of token price will be the ad revenues. Dollars generated will be used to buy the token off the market. What happens with those tokens from there is still to be decided upon. There is some thought to paying them as a dividend for stakers. There is also the possibility they get burned or go into a DAO like Splinterlands has.
As stated, it's still very early in the game. There's a reason they are trading for 6 cents. In the meantime, the team continues to build and develop the platform. If and when LeoThreads turns into the catalyst for user adoption of Hive and Leo that people think it can be, the value will be in that "network" and all of the people it can reach. How that translates into token price, I don't know. But in my opinion building the network is the hard part. Figuring out how to monetize it for the tokenholders will be part of the process. Ultimately, Khal just keeps building and there is definitely a level of "blind faith" you have to put in him that he will get there. He's had a couple failed attempts at things in the past but he has made people whole and has gone back to the drawing board and re-engineered the code improving the platform. If you believe in his vision, then you hold the token. If you don't, then you just use the platform and farm it. I happen to believe in what he's building and want to be along for the ride. At 6 cents, I don't feel there's a lot to lose and everything to gain. But everyone has to decide for themselves.
OK so I wasn't missing much. I just didn't know if there was some master plan I was unaware of. Obviously all of this crypto stuff is sort of an experiment but most of these hive layer 2s are pretty confusing to me just because i've never been sure what they are for. It's been fun to get high up on the leaderboard for a few of them.
Leo is the only one I see people putting up posts about its great future where the token might be worth so much more. I've just never seen anyone layout the plan that gets it there. Not even a concept of what might be one day.
Thanks for the insight. I'll keep stacking my rewards 😀
😎😊🤙 yea, $44 billion is unreal.. maybe baby LEO will be there one day..
and yea, things change and get added so often..
A lot can happen over the next 14 years. You never know. Regardless, I believe in what he's building and think it's going to be worth a lot more than 6 cents someday. I'm hoping for the $11 he talks about in his post. lol
yes!
First your maths is very good. You are absolutely right spending so much money on twitter is not a good decision in my view as what you mentioned can make money if done this way. As you have mentioned, if everything were to be done in the same way, this someone could go to heaven in the coming days. All the projects that are working on hive now will be very successful in the coming days as there is a lot of strong projects. After reading this information my heart also wants to invest my money in Leo coin. Crypto is the name of patience, whoever is patient by investing in it in the first market can earn profit in the coming market. Thanks for sharing this great strategy with us.
I have 530 leo tokens staked now. Start to take it seriously, and accumulate more as I believe it's so innovative. With many features coming out, I think it can easily reach $0.30 !
LEO is under the radar, but I wonder what is going on with the ad revenue. I know they have mentioned how the ad placement is terrible and there is a lot they could do to improve things. Do we know when that LEO from buybacks will come to those of us who staked? I remember the buy backs being talked about like a year ago but it hasn't really gone anywhere.
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
Completely AGree with you @dagger212, i also thought the same, 44 billion $ for an app is too much , but it is what it is, But after this, if we see our platform Leo, which is one of the best source of financial news on the hive blockchain. we can be worth way more than what we are standing on today. Leo Token has a great chance to hit 1$ again.
That was a fun exercise in math, but it was also eye opening how little it wlould take to move the needle.. Plus buying the token and moving the price up will definately get notice as coingecko keeps track of the tokens increasing in value each day. So we might not make it to the top 100, but we might make it to the top tem tokens increasing in value one day, and this would put us on the radar of speculators and longterm investors.
Yeah, it's all a process. At these prices though, it really won't take a whole lot to jump this back up to the 20 cent level. There just needs to be a reason for people to see the future. Hopefully the new UI for LeoThreads will provide it.