Revisiting My Goals on Hive: Taking a Very LONG Look Towards the Future

A lot of us have some sort of process for setting goals in life. As part of that, we're likely going to make financial goals and investment goals.

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How far can we hope to see?

In most cases, people seem to have an easier time with short term goals than with long term goals.

We are readily able to sit down and make a declaration like ”I will write a blog post every day for the next seven days.” Or maybe we'll have a slightly longer horizon and say something like ”I will run a 10K race in under 40 minutes by the end of the season.”

But what about the really long term goals?

Sure, we might have some sort of vague "in general" idea of "wanting to retire at 50 with a nice nest egg that allows us to enjoy a cushy lifestyle" until the end of our days… but most people I talk to don't get into actual specifics as to exactly what they want to accomplish nor on how they're going to get there.

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"Uncertainty" is no Excuse!

The reasoning I often hear goes something like ”well, that future is just too far away and there are too many variables.”

That's nice... and yet (just as an example) many business scholars cite the longevity of many Japanese companies as being partly the result of having 100-year plans.

Indeed, the specifics of long-term goal setting can be daunting, as can the goals, themselves. Often we play out small scenarios in our heads: "well, this is what I accomplished in a single DAY, now I just need to multiply that by 5,000 times," and suddenly it seems not only daunting and impossible, but also exhausting.

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Retirement Plans

Not so long ago, Mrs. Denmarkguy and I spent a little time talking about our lives ”a ways down the road,” trying to nail down specifics, not just that "general sense" of what we wanted, and what was needed.

Part of what came out of that conversation is that we figured we would most likely stay in our current house until 2030 at which time it seemed highly likely that we would simply find maintaining a place this size, with a yard this size, too much work for our aging bodies... so we would sell our much beloved home and move to a smaller place.

In an ideal world, our finances would be secure enough by then that we would be able to buy the new place, gradually move the things we really wanted to keep there, have a giant estate/garage sale at the old place of everything else, clean and patch up the old house a bit, and then put it up for sale after we'd already moved to a secure new location.

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So what's the problem with this picture?

Well, we would need to have enough money on hand in our relatively liquid investments that we would be able to make a decent sized down payment on the new house.

And we need to be able to cover the cost of moving, the cost of any potential fixing up at the new place, the cost of assorted repairs and upgrades at the old place... preferably all without having to take out a loan or in any way go into debt, aside from a shorter term mortgage loan on the new place.

Ideally, we'd be able to afford to do this and when our old place sold we'd be able to take some of the proceeds to pay off the new mortgage immediately and still have a sizable chunk left over to put into investments that would give us an income that would substantially sustain us for the rest of our lives.

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What does this have to do with Hive?

Well, I started looking at what might happen if we take the really long time perspective... In this case, eight years. I have reached a point of feeling pretty secure in doing so, having been part of this community for over 5 1/2 years and feeling confident that it is not suddenly "going to go away."

How far could another eight years of just a fairly diligent blogging and engagement commitment get us, provided there were no unexpected power downs?

For the past 12 months or so, I have typically been able to add 300-400 Hive Power a month, through new staked rewards and curation/engagement. Let’s conservatively call that 4,000HP a year. Multiply by 8 years (for simplicity’s sake) and we end up with 32,000HP. Add that to the near 14,000 I currently have, and we end up at 46,000 HP in total.

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Keeping it Conservative

Likely, it would actually be more than that, thanks to the magic of compounding; my curation income would rise a little bit every year. So, let’s suppose that number could actually reach 50,000HP by 2030.

All other things being equal, in order to cover the cost of the moving plans as outlined above... I would estimate that we’d need to have $5.00 Hive in order for that stake to be sufficient to cover the moving and home changes outlay.

Is that realistic?

Well, that certainly sounds like it could be within the realm of reality.

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There are ALWAYS Uncertainties!

Then, of course, the next question becomes whether or not I would actually want to unstake 13 years' worth of diligent building, when the time comes? Undoubtedly, there would be tax ramifications. By then, would the crypto markets have developed to where there were other options available? Like crypto-based mortgages? Or crypto collateralized loans?

These questions are, of course, what make long term projections somewhat tricky! Similarly, we have no idea what greater world and legacy economy inflation will do to the price of things, between now and 2030. For all we know, a cup of coffee might cost $100!

We just can't know, but I don't consider that a reason to not make a plan!

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Just By the NUMBERS...

On the other hand, it doesn't seem like a ridiculous proposal.

I regularly see some of our "Hive Maximalists" speculate on $20 Hive; $100 Hive; even $200 Hive. As a bit more of a "backdrop of REALISM," we've already experienced Hive getting — however briefly — near $3.00. As a second backdrop of realism, the token back on the "old chain" briefly surpassed $8.00, which is actually more than the $5.00 I am looking for.

So to suggest at least $5.00 Hive by 2030 is probably not too far fetched.

Of course, the joy of all this is that I really enjoy blogging, so even if none of it comes to pass and we end up just staying in our old house, or doing something completely different, I will have enjoyed myself with another eight years of writing and being part of the community!

And it's hard to place a value on that!

Thanks for reading, and have an awesome weekend!

How about you? Do you have a really LONG term plan? If so, does it include the specifics of how to get there? Or do you think long term plan are more for "dreams" than actual plans? Comments, feedback and other interaction is invited and welcomed! Because — after all — SOCIAL content is about interacting, right? Leave a comment — share your experiences — be part of the conversation!

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Created at 20220812 15:42 PDT

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(Edited)

I have no faith in the Social Security system for my retirement. I will have a small 401K library account, but it won't be likely to cover much. Crypto is the most likely of all my uncertain investments to pay off in the long run. I have achieved 40K HP now, and I plan to continue curating and creating content well into the foreseeable future. All plans include an implicit "barring the unexpected," or, "God willing," but I want to blend stacking HIVE toward Orca status and trading into HBD when the prices are favorable to earn a passive HBD stream. It's not my only plan, but it seems a sound one for now.

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I have pretty much zero faith in Social Security. And having spent so many years being self-employed with limited income, what I have paid in wouldn't be any kind of sustainable income, anyway.

I have some faith in crypto, and with each passing year a few more "influential" players get involved, thereby reducing the likelihood that everything vanishes in a giant rugpull. I have started slowly stacking some HBD from a small percentage of my liquid rewards. Eventually, the interest will amount to another small income stream... I hope.

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How about you? Do you have a really LONG term plan?

Yes, but not with HIVE. :)

You see yourself what the problem is: only very few interaction, just automated upvoting, which means it's just like staking but has nothing (at least not much) to do with social media.

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Many uncertainties, indeed.

Which is why my ultimate "reward" is also the fact that I get to do something I really enjoy: writing articles/posts on a wide variety of topics, with at least some interaction.

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Thank you for your witness vote!
Have a !BEER on me!
To Opt-Out of my witness beer program just comment STOP below

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