Nigeria economy; is there hope?
Nigeria by privilege is key regional player in West Africa, We accounts for about half of West Africa’s population with approximately 202 million people and one of the largest populations of youth in the world by statistic. With an abundance of natural resources, it is Africa’s biggest oil exporter, and has the largest natural gas reserves on the continent.
let take a look at economic overview, so as to know were we are
Nigeria is highly vulnerable to the global economic disruption caused by COVID-19, particularly due to the pronounced decline in oil prices and spikes in risk aversion in global capital markets. Nationally, 40 percent of Nigerians (83 million people) live below the poverty line, while another 25 percent (53 million) are vulnerable. With COVID-19, many of these 53 million vulnerable people could fall into poverty. The magnitude of the health impact depends on the duration and the domestic spread of the outbreak, while the economic impact hinges on oil prices. Oil accounts for over 80 percent of exports, a third of banking sector credit, and half of government revenues. Oil prices also affect growth in non-oil industries and services, with additional pressures arising from foreign portfolio investors’ reassessment of risks and domestic liquidity management.
The macroeconomic situation is more challenging now than in 2015-2016, when oil prices fell sharply and Nigeria experienced its first recession in 25 years. In the current situation, Nigeria has fewer buffers and policy instruments to cushion adverse effects. The Excess Crude Account is depleted, external reserves are highly reliant on short-term flows, and policy uncertainty affects investor confidence. Before the 2016 recession, Nigeria’s economy was growing fast at 6.3%. By contrast, before COVID-19 struck, the economy was growing at 2.2%. Inflation was in single digits in 2014, compared to about 12% in 2019. The general government fiscal deficit was 4.4% of GDP in 2019, compared to 1.8% in 2014.
Unemployment and underemployment are expected to increase, affecting poor households and increasing the share of the population vulnerable to falling into poverty. Only agriculture is expected to positively contribute to growth in 2020.
Nigeria is a multi-ethnic and culturally diverse federation which consists of 36 autonomous states and the Federal Capital Territory. The political landscape is partly dominated by the ruling All Progressives Congress party (APC) which holds 217 out of 360 seats at the National Assembly; 64 out of 109 seats in the Senate; and 19 out of 36 State Governors.
Muhammadu Buhari secured a second term at the 2019 presidential elections, while the results were contested by the main opposition party the People’s Democratic Party (PDP). Since 2011, the Nigerian security landscape has been consistently shaped by the war against Boko Haram terrorist group in the northern states. This adds to a lasting crisis in the oil-rich Niger Delta, where several non-state armed groups attack oil companies and state-owned pipelines.
we in this country are already tired of the whole stuff, looking at the economy growth from 1999 till date, it is clear that very soon Nigeria will become a history if something is not done now and fast.
A country with a population of 202 million people with this kind of economy growth what is the hope?. The system When we looked at the structure, we made some progress in socio-economic terms in recent years, but our human capital development have constantly been weak due to under-investment, instead of developing an investment mentality, we prefer to borrow as long as we live.
Imagine our rank 152 of 157 countries in the World Bank’s 2018 Human Capital Index. I tell you the truth, our country will continue to face massive developmental challenges until our investment mentality is is worked on and on time, yes God bless us with natural resources which we have almost exhausted, amongst many issues i want to talk about is our dependency on oil which is something we should look away from, diversify the economy, the issue of insufficient infrastructure, building of strong and effective institutions, addressing governance issues and public financial management systems.
With these pre-existing structural challenges, there is no way the country would be able to handle issues like the COVID-19 outbreak and its consequences, not to talk of
Lack of job opportunities which is at the core of the high poverty levels, regional inequality, asocial and political unrest. before the breakout about 2 million Nigerians were expected to fall into poverty in 2020 as population growth outpaces economic growth. With COVID-19, the recession has push an additional 5 million Nigerians into poverty in 2020, bringing the total newly poor to 7 million this year.
Thank God for the pandemic that came open our eye on the level of poverty which is on the increase, unfortunately the Government of the day is not helping matters, take a look at the economic growth in the current regime from 2016-2020 we have been on the average of GDP growth of 0.31%.
Yes it looks impossible but i believe it is very possible, i know we have some young and positive minded fellow here with an investment mentality who are interested in governance and the leadership of our nation, I join my voice with that of the millions out there to advocate for Independence on oil, diversity in our economy, building strong and effective institution, insufficient infrastructure, the issue of governances and public financial management system.
I strongly do believe that if this few point are carefully looked into, there will be hope for my nations economy specially now that the 2023 struggle (Election) is at the Conner, lets be our brothers keeper. i am also doing well to invite a hand full of Nigerian to the Hive blockchain specifically Loefinance community, to gain experience.
a whole lots of Good and develop strategies on how to effectively engage in investment.
please your upvote and comment @ekeminiemy will do a lots of good. thanks for your time
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