Deal or No Deal?

         One of the most popular folklore in crypto is that the market cycle works in strict 4-year cycles. The actuality is that it's more complicated than that. But, to the average person, that seems to be the case. This time, it doesn't seem this way.

         I couldn't help but wonder if $69K (heh) was the top. If that were the case, this cycle definitely seemed underwhelming. Despite the fact that I've done rather well this time around, it still feels a bit bad inside.

What If?

         That's the question. What if we are already in the bear market?

         What if?

         What if the real movement is in Q1 of 2022?

         Should I take less profits anyway? Should I be greedy and wait for better prices? Come think of it, it was much easier to accumulate than to exit and set up for the next cycle.

         The only reason why I would want to "take profits" is to move into other assets, paying off the house, and whatnot. Fiat is, after all, liquidity.

         Some of you may have seen the show Deal or No Deal. The version I watched featured Howie Mandel as the host. You can read into the details on the Wiki page. It's a game based on process of elimination and probabilities.

         In short, contestant start by choosing a suitcase out of two dozens. Each case has a plaque with a money amount on it and are known to the player before shuffled up. The contestant proceeds to choose cases to "eliminate". Each time, the value of the case is revealed. The game's "banker" offers the player a certain amount of money based on the state of the game. The person can then choose to accept the "deal" or say "no deal" to continue the game. The game ends when the contestant either accepts the deal or play to the very end.

         Winning the game is relative. It all depends on the offer accepted versus the content of the chosen suitcase. You'd have to watch it to get what I mean.

The Point

         If anyone ever asks, the latter part of the bull cycle is much like a game of Deal or No Deal. You could be winning all the way. But, how much are you winning?

         Even at the current downtrend, selling what I want to liquidate now would still produce a return. A significant return compared to my capital. The only downside is that I won't be able to complete everything on my list.

         The chilling thought of heading into the bear market would mean I may not realize any of that if I choose to hodl. After giving myself doses of "hopium" and consolation, I came to a conclusion.

         To be honest, I'm not in a hurry. I'm also better off than most Americans, even though it doesn't feel like it at times. If the bear comes, so be it. I'll most likely still sell off the most underperforming assets at a profit. If the extended cycle plays out, I'll be patient. I'm not desperate enough that my livelihood all hinges on crypto going to the moon.


         Deal or no deal? For now, to the preverbal banker, I say "no deal!"

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta



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20 comments
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pixresteemer_incognito_angel_mini.png
Bang, I did it again... I just rehived your post!
Week 87 of my contest just started...you can now check the winners of the previous week!
!BEER
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December was a dissapointment but January might bring home the bacon :)

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Quite possible.

I don't mind waiting till Q4 of 2022 either.

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It's hard to choose but I prefer to look at the plan you made when you choose to buy the crypto. After all if you believe in it long-term, holding it for a bit longer isn't that bad.

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

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The mental block and the feeling of missing out is what drives the emotional distress. At least for me, anyways.

But, taking a step back really helps with the bigger picture and reminding myself that I'm not in a race.

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I am kind of in the same boat as you. Doing well enough in real life that none of my crypto stuff has much of an impact, but I still don't want to have missed taking some gains. I did take some out in May and paid off all of my debt except our house. Now I just sit and wait and wonder if I should have sold a bit more in November or if I will see better returns in 2022. I don't "need" the money though, so I guess I am better off than a lot of people.

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Getting debt free is a great thing. Less shackles that way.

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(Edited)

My problem with the current cycle, we are in perilous economic times. I feel it earlier and harder than most because of my trade and let me tell you, it's bad out there. Hasn't been this bad for me in 14 years, since the Lehman shock. If the governments continue with their funny money and heavy hand on the economy I think it will continue to put pressure downwards on crypto. However you could look at crypto as a safe haven against tyrants and inflation, but only the well off have that luxury. Most of us have to figure out how to pay the bills and eat.

It sucks because I think crypto has entered a better phase than 2017 with all the layer 2 solutions on the various chains. The NFT & FT markets are exploding. That brings in more money for development, new ideas, and growth. This is still a light in the room, but we need to throw off the tyrants globally and get back to semi-free markets, individual freedom and less Blackrocks.

Regardless, this time I am in HIVE for the long run. The development on HIVE vs. the old chain is night & day. I just gotta avoid the downvote wars. Last time I got nuked and had to walk away for a bit.

Happy New Year's to you and yours.

Bill3.gif

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The long game is really the only game we can bet on for us average folks.

Hope you'll have a Happy New Year as well!

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Happy new yearrr

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How's the future?

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We have health, the three meals ... The rest is profit! I hope you have a successful 2022.

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I am in it for the long haul and plan to let it ride, but if shit hits the fan with fiat and I need to liquidate crypto, I will. I just hope its on a run when I do.

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