Which Hive-Engine Portfolio Performs Best in a Bear Market?

almost 2 years ago (Edited)

A few weeks back, an experimental idea came up. I asked a couple fellow Hive-Enginers to pick a portfolio of Hive-Engine tokens. The idea is to choose a list of tokens to invest in, and see which basket of tokens performs the best over the next 6 months. The discussion started before this nuclear winter bear market, so we're doing it LIVE!

[BEARS image source: pixabay]

The Experiment - 3 Wallets And Some Code

3 new wallets were created, and funded with 16 SWAP.HIVE each to start. It's not much to start with for this first round. We'll go bigger next time, and we want to see results for a bull market, too!

Some code was written to manage the portfolios. Once a week the code will check if the tokens in the portfolio have deviated more than 1% from their target allocation (using a constant-weighting asset allocation strategy). If a token has increased in portfolio value by more than 1% (of the total portfolio value), the code sells some tokens. On the other hand, if a token has decreased in portfolio value by more than 1%, the code buys some. This is a weekly rebalance.

The Portfolios - 3 Unique Baskets of Tokens

The portfolios chosen look like this:

Wallet name: @d401d (a traditional basket)
30% BTC, 30% ETH, 10% MATIC, 5% DHEDGE, 5% BRO, 5% LEO, 15% HIVE
Wallet name: @b401 (a game-token-focused basket)
20% SPS, 10% SIM, 10% DEC, 10% BUDS, 10% STARBITS, 10% CROP, 10% PIZZA, 20% HIVE
Wallet name: @h401 (a hybrid basket - some top 10 coins and some game tokens)
5% PIZZA, 10% SPS, 10% LTC, 10% BTC, 10% BNB, 10% WAX, 10% ETH, 5% LEO, 10% DOGE, 20% HIVE.

This experiment is kicking off today, and a rebalance will happen every Wednesday going forward. We decided to measure the portfolio values using the current BID price of tokens. After working through some initial hiccups, here are the initial standings, after trading 16 SWAP.HIVE for other tokens. The values are lower than 16 SWAP.HIVE because of the decision mentioned above (tokens have a noticeable spread between BID and ASK).

Initial Standings - Week 0

@d401d
- Total value: 14.572405 SWAP.HIVE
@b401
- Total value: 15.097150 SWAP.HIVE
@h401
- Total value: 15.537365 SWAP.HIVE

I'm excited to share updates for this experiment with you over the next 6 months. Which basket do you think will perform the best?

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28 comments

@brando28 70

almost 2 years ago

Interesting experiment! I would say the hybrid one will perform best. Nice collection of coins that some might shoot up big when things get more bullish. Keep us posted!

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@hivetrending 66

almost 2 years ago

Thanks for reading! We shall see!

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@cflclosers 72

almost 2 years ago

cool idea. I have and have had many 2nd layer tokens but I don't monitor them in any way. I have leo, starbits and buds that I use but I would love to know about investing in others.

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@hivetrending 66

almost 2 years ago

If there is interest, we might be able to scale this up and let more experiments run in parallel.

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@cflclosers 72

almost 2 years ago

It's very interesting. I'm kind of a dummy with that stuff. That's why I'm so enamored with HBD right now. Even if it doesn't stay at 20% I will compound as long as I can.

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@shortsegments 77

almost 2 years ago

Agreed, it will be interesting to see the longterm result.
:)

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@hoosie 74

almost 2 years ago

Nice experiment - I'm really looking forward to seeing how things turn out !

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@b0s 71

almost 2 years ago

I'm suprised the game token managed to hold out more than the traditional one. I'd still put my money on the traditional basket to beat the rest after six months.

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@hivetrending 66

almost 2 years ago

I think it's much too early to call! Just getting started.

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@b0s 71

almost 2 years ago

Yeah it's probably too early.

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@pizzabot 58

almost 2 years ago (Edited)

PIZZA! PIZZA!
@hivetrending! The Hive.Pizza team manually curated this post.

PIZZA Holders sent $PIZZA tips in this post's comments:
@gillianpearce_(1/5) tipped @hivetrending (x1)

_{Learn more at https://hive.pizza.}

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@hivebuzz 74

almost 2 years ago

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	You received more than 4500 upvotes. Your next target is to reach 4750 upvotes.

_{You can view your badges on your board and compare yourself to others in the Ranking}
_{If you no longer want to receive notifications, reply to this comment with the word STOP}

Support the HiveBuzz project. Vote for our proposal!

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@ifarmgirl 76

almost 2 years ago

It would be interesting to see how this goes to see which one performs best.

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@shortsegments 77

almost 2 years ago

Agreed, it will be interesting to see the longterm result.
:)

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@verbalshadow 64

almost 2 years ago

hoping you keeping track of total spend as well. especially important for losing accounts.

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@forexbrokr 75

almost 2 years ago

Nice idea for an experiment.

I'll be keeping an eye on this :)

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@shortsegments 77

almost 2 years ago

Agreed, me too, I usually think diversification, but not so sure that will work short term.

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@thelogicaldude 73

almost 2 years ago

That looks like a fun little experiment. I'll have to keep following this and see how it comes out!

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@yieldgrower 60

almost 2 years ago

will you also be counting the Dividends you receive from $BRO as part of the profits or just the actual value of $BRO?

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@hivetrending 66

almost 2 years ago

Good question! We are counting dividends. Hive will be converted to SWAP.HIVE.

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@gillianpearce 67

almost 2 years ago

!LUV !PIZZA !LOLZ

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@luvshares 58

almost 2 years ago

⚠ Starting June 16, LUV will allow 3 or fewer "!" commands in a reply. Details.

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@lolzbot 69

almost 2 years ago

lolztoken.com

What's the difference between a rain gutter and a clumsy outfielder?
One catches drops, the other drops catches.
_{Credit: reddit}
@hivetrending, I sent you an $LOLZ on behalf of @gillianpearce
Use the !LOL or !LOLZ command to share a joke and an $LOLZ
(1/4)

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@shortsegments 77

almost 2 years ago

Hi @gillianpierce
Good to see you still posting on the platform.
I hope your in good health and high spirits.
How are things in your part of the world?

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@boscohage 67

almost 2 years ago

It's an interesting one, checking performance of the tokens. I hope it would yield what's expected.

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@monica-ene 77

almost 2 years ago

Wow, such an interesting experiment.
Am most times short on which of those token to invest in and experiment like this can help out.

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@shortsegments 77

almost 2 years ago

Agreed, it will be interesting to see the longterm result.
:)

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@shortsegments 77

almost 2 years ago

Interesting experiment indeed. I think a diversified portfolio can be expected to do best over the long term, but short term results may be more affected by news cycle.

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