Will it be a Black Swan? March 10, 2023, mark the date - 100,000 Bitcoins released by GOX EXCHANGE to customers, blocked for hacking since 2014. [ENG-ITA]

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(Edited)

Good morning dear friends of Hive, the topic I want to discuss today makes me smile in a moment in which it seems that the crypto market is about to restart, with Bitcoin which after the last pump is now close to 19,000 Dollars. But I always have to think of every eventuality, because before fantasizing about possible earnings, I have to protect and preserve what I have created and accumulated up to now.

What we are going to face in the coming months will be an unprecedented event.

Buon giorno cari amici di Hive, l'argomento che voglio trattare oggi mi fa sorridere in un momento in cui sembra che il mercato delle crypto stia per decollare, con Bitcoin che in questo momento dopo l'ultimo pump sfiora i 19.000 Dollari. Ma devo pensare sempre ad ogni evenienza, perchè prima di fantasticare sui possibili guadagni, devo proteggere e preservare quello che ho creato e accumulato fino ad ora.
Quello che andremo ad affrontare nei prossimi mesi sarà un evento senza precedenti.


Image source: Pixabay.com https://pixabay.com/it/photos/cigno-uccello-uccelli-acquatici-122983/

A few days ago the Gox exchange released the date March 10, 2023, the day on which the old customers of the Japanese exchange hacked back in 2014 will be compensated in Bitcoin for a total of around 100.000, out of the total 137.000 recovered. After suffering the hack, this exchange was forced to undertake bankruptcy proceedings, which ended only in July 2022, so only a few months ago, after 8 years. All this was declared by Nobuyaki Kobayashi, current trustee of the bankrupt exchange.

This operation will bring an influx of new Bitcoins to the cryptocurrency market for a value of over 2 billion dollars, but what makes us think more is the fact that those who will be compensated after 8 years will have bought Bitcoins at values below 100 dollars. To think that at the time I didn't know this world yet, which I only entered in mid-2016, when Bitcoin cost around 300/400 dollars.

Alcuni giorni fa l'exchage Gox ha rilasciato la data 10 Marzo 2023, giorno in cui i vecchi clienti dell'exchange Giapponese hackerato nel lontano 2014, verranno risarciti in Bitcoin per un totale di circa 100.000, sui totali 137.000 recuperati. Questo exchange dopo aver subito l'hackeraggio fu costretto ad intraprendere una procedura fallimentare, che si è conclusa solo nel Luglio del 2022, per cui solo alcuni mesi fa, dopo ben 8 anni. A dichiarare tutto questo è stato Nobuyaki Kobayashi, attuale fiduciario dell'exchange in banca rotta.
Questa operazione porterà sul mercato delle cryptovalute un afflusso di nuovi Bitcoin per un valore di oltre 2 miliardi di Dollari, ma a far riflettere maggiormente è il fatto che coloro che verrano risarciti dopo 8 anni, avranno acquistato Bitcoin a valori sottostanti i 100 dollari. Pensare che io all'epoca non conoscevo ancora questo mondo, nel quale sono entrato solo a metà del 2016, quando Bitcoin costava circa 300/400 dollari.


Image source: Pixabay.com https://pixabay.com/it/photos/soglia-traversine-ferroviarie-6036413/

The thing is this, what are these people going to do with their Bitcoins which will be outrageously worth compared to the investment they made at the time?

I believe that at this point we can expect two different consequences as an impact on the market. Surely the introduction of all these Bitcoins will have a strong impact, whether it will be positive or negative we cannot know, in this world we have discovered one thing that is sure, this situation is truly unpredictable, also because there are no previous similar events.

Il fatto è questo, cosa faranno queste persone con i loro Bitcoin che avranno un valore spropositato in confronto all'investimento fatto all'epoca?
Io credo che a questo punto ci possiamo aspettare due conseguenze diverse come impatto sul mercato. Sicuramente l'immissione di tutti questi Bitcoin inciderà fortemente, se sarà in positivo o in negativo non lo possiamo sapere, in questo mondo abbiamo scoperto una cosa che è sicura, è davvero imprevedibile questa situazione, anche perché non ci sono precedenti eventi simili di tale portata.


Image source: Pixabay.com https://pixabay.com/it/photos/zen-yin-yang-spiritualit%c3%a0-armonia-5533487/

POSITIVE IMPACT ASSUMPTION

In the hope it will have a positive impact, it could be that Bitcoin investors back in 2014, mostly they are not traders, because those arrived in the following years, they could be supporters of the blockchain and hold the old Btc. Surely they will also have had other cryptocurrencies elsewhere, with which they may have made a great profit since 2014. In this case it would be a great confidence boost, especially after the facts related to FTX, perhaps a turning point to start a bull run... Maybe I'm just daydreaming, but it's a possible theory.

NEGATIVE IMPACT ASSUMPTION

On the other hand, the opposite could happen, customers who have made huge capital gains, having not been able to touch their Bitcoins for 8 years, could sell en masse, bringing 2 billion of Bitcoin on the sales side, causing the price to collapse and hibernating the Bitcoin at that point, because the miners will would no longer bear the costs of mining. A catastrophic consequence, but easily possible, probably more likely than with positive thinking.

IPOTESI IMPATTO POSITIVO
Nella speranza possa avere un impatto positivo, potrebbe essere il fatto che investitori di Bitcoin nel lontano 2014, per lo più non sono trader, perchè quelli sono arrivati negli anni successivi, potrebbero essere sostenitori della blockchain e holdare i vecchi Btc. Sicuramente avranno avuto anche altre cryptovalute altrove, con le quali dal lontano 2014 possono averne tratto grande profitto. In questo caso sarebbe una grande iniezione di fiducia, sopratutto dopo i fatti legati ad FTX, forse una svolta per avviare un bull run... Forse sto solo fantasticando, ma è una possibile teoria.
IPOTESI IMPATTO NEGATIVO
D'altra parte potrebbe avvenire l'opposto, i clienti che hanno realizzato plusvalenze enormi, non avendo potuto toccare i loro Bitcoin per ben 8 anni, potrebbero vendere in massa, portando cifre vicine ai 2 miliardi sul lato delle vendite, facendo crollare il prezzo e ibernando a quel punto il Bitcoin, perchè i miners non supporterebbero più i costi del mining. Una conseguenza catastrofica, ma facilmente possibile, probabilmente più probabile di quella con pensiero positivo.


Image source: Pixabay.com https://pixabay.com/it/photos/perso-fondare-perso-e-trovato-1605501/

The hope is that there is a middle ground, there will probably be some selling pressure, but let's hope it's not such that the market price collapses, maybe it's a gradual thing, so that the price can hold up and not drop too much. Reporting another speech, but inherent, it makes me hopeful in the funds I lost in FTX, even if the situation is completely different, I mean the reason why the exchange failed, but thinking of being able to unlock cryptocurrencies in several years and find digits to 5 zeros would be nice, but it may be that they will no longer be worth anything or that I will never see a cent back... Who knows.

Will we face the Black Swan? It will be a sudden event, over which we cannot have certain control or prediction, the reality of things will be upset, because it will face an unprecedented event... But will all this have a positive or negative outcome, what do you think my friends?In the meantime, I thank you for your attention and send you a big hug.

Stay on track, now like never before, because it will be a year of upheavals!

La speranza è che ci sia una mezza via, probabilmente ci sarà una pressione di vendite, ma speriamo non sia tale da fare collassare il prezzo di mercato, magari che sia una cosa graduale, così che il prezzo possa reggere e non cali eccessivamente. Riportando un altro discorso, ma inerente, mi fa ben sperare nei fondi che ho perso in FTX, anche se la situazione è completamente diversa, intendo il motivo per cui l'exchange è fallito, ma pensare di poter sbloccare delle cryptovalute tra diversi anni e trovarmi cifre folli sarebbe bello, ma può darsi che non varranno più nulla o che non vedrò mai indietro un centesimo... Chissà.
Ci troveremo di fronte al Cigno Nero? Sarà un evento improvviso, sul quale non possiamo avere controllo o previsione certa, la realtà delle cose sarà sconvolta, perchè affronterà un evento senza precedenti... Ma tutto questo avrà un esito positivo o negativo secondo voi amici miei? Cosa ne pensate? Nel frattempo vi ringrazio per la vostra attenzione e vi mando un grande abbraccio.
Rimanete sul pezzo, ora come mai prima, perchè sarà un anno di stravolgimenti!

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I hadn't heard of this before. I'm wondering how this shake out...how the coins would be returned. Would they be returned to a BTC address? Would the owners still have access to their keys? My guess is that fiat was sent to Mt Gox and Gox bought the BTC. So will the trustees track down the individuals (was KYC even done back then?) and send them BTC? Sell the bitcoin and then send them equivalent fiat money as thought they'd "cashed out"? Definitely worth watching. !LUV

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Thanks for stopping by. From what I have read, those Bitcoins had been recovered again in 2014 from the Hacker hit, but in the meantime the exchange that had remained in difficulty had declared a broken bank and the Bitcoins subsequently recovered remained frozen until the end of the process, which ended in 2022. Being a Dex, GOX has all the keys, customers will have time from 10 January to 10 March to request compensation and probably provide all the documentation and references they will need. Now I don't know how the Japanese legislation works, but what matters is that such a large liquidity that could be put up for sale is a danger that needs to be kept under control.

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I see, I guess my next question would be how many of those people still have all their credentials, know the process, etc. I'll bet a large portion of those coins don't get transferred. Then, your thoughts are on the mark...will they sell or hodl. If I had a nickel to bet, I'd bet they'll sell.

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It is probable that having bought it in 2014 for 300 dollars, then now that it is at 20k they would sell it.

I agree with what you say, I also think that surely some of those BTC will never be recalled, you know, in 8 years many things can have happened to people, some may not even be alive anymore, so it's easy not to they will all be released. But right now there is some positive data on interest rates and the market is coming back up, if it continues like this I won't be afraid of that event, hopefully. Have a nice weekend!

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