2022: Hive Forecast

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We are closing out the year known as 2021. Now it is time to turn our focus to the year ahead. With so much happening, where will our ecosystem be in a year. Here we will attempt to uncover come possibilities.

This article is not going to focus upon price since markets will do as they wish. That said, it is safe to say we should see higher levels in the price of HIVE. Of course, a bear market could trump whatever development takes place.

Instead, we will concentrate our efforts on some of the projects we know are on tap and how they will impact things.

This past year provided a bit of a glimpse into what can happen on Hive. The success of Splinterlands really emphasized how Hive works. This is something to keep in mind as we go forward.

Now let us look at the year ahead.

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HIVE Will Become Scarce

This is an idea which is hard to see at the moment since there is so much floating on the exchanges. However, when you think about it, we really should be powering up all the HIVE we can.

The reason for this is due to the utility of the token. What does HIVE create? For the answer we have to look at the basic fundamentals of the chain.

HP power produces:

  • Resource Credits
  • Account Claiming

Splinterlands showed what can happen when hundreds of thousands of accounts are added. What happens if this moves into the millions? Quite simply, there are not enough accounts.

Fortunately, as time passes, more accounts can be claimed. This, however, is not at a pace necessary to keep up with potential demand.

One of the first tests could be when #ProjectBlank rolls out. If this can see the light of day by the end of the first quarter, it will have the opportunity to top the 2021 sign ups by Splinterlands. Couple this with other possible breakthroughs as well as the ongoing success of that game and we can see how an issue arises.

Once they are signed up, we know Resource Credits are required to engage on-chain. While the system is being changed, the bottom line is Resource Credits are created by Hive Power. As more HIVE is powered up, the greater the total amount of Resource Credits available. This, of course, expands the amount of activity that can occur.

The growth of Hive in 2021 was terrific. If this is duplicated again, we might find ourselves in the situation where there is a scarcity of HIVE.

Hive Backed Dollar (HBD) Will Become A Centerpiece

Here is another area that we saw a major breakthrough in 2021. After being basically ignored for the last half decade, attention was finally paid to the chain's stablecoin.

Because of the actions taken, we enter 2022 with HBD starting to take form. Granted, there is still a lot of work to do yet we are heading in the right direction.

Here again, we can see scarcity becoming an issue. Fortunately, there are options with this token as compared to HIVE. The latter has a set distribution (inflation) rate that should never be changed. We risk too much of a loss of credibility if that were to happen. Instead, we need to focus upon the amount of HBD that is generated.

One of the other utilities of HIVE is that is can be converted to HBD. The challenge here is for each HIVE that is converted, that cannot be powered up to help generate accounts nor provide Resource Credits. It also could potentially take away from the market cap which affects HBD.

An increasing market cap of HIVE enables for more HBD to be created. This is going to help as people start to make this the centerpiece of their activities on Hive. At present, we have the savings account paying 12%. It is a number that can be adjusted by the Witnesses.

While this is advantageous to individual users, it is a major innovation for games and applications. They can utilize the savings as an income producer to reward their users. It is easy to see how some communities might start depositing HBD into savings and start to use the proceeds for contests and things of that nature. Here again, creativity and innovation are going to generate use cases.

Ultimately, we will see HBD become a payment token in 2022. This is something that might take until the second half of the year as more work is required to tighten the peg. Either way, the stable-ish coin should become stable.

Development Will Accelerate

One of the overlooked developed is the Hive Application Framework (HAF). This is something that gets a bit technical for most of us yet can provide huge opportunities to developers.

An issue with blockchain is that most upgrades can only come via Hard Fork. While this is not a problem from a development standpoint, it affects the frequency they can be done. Since exchanges have to shut down transactions, it is causes a lot of disruption. For this reason, we see perhaps two Hard Forks per year.

The HAF will allow for updates with greater frequency. Since applications are going to engage via this mechanism, any changes to the HAF are instantly available. Obviously, areas such as governance are still going to be at the core layer but this will help to alleviate some of the issues with developers who are not blockchain experts.

Here we should see the interest of developers increase. There are a lot of people out there who understand Java, Python, and other programming languages, The ones who know Solidity, for example, are much fewer in number. This causes delays in expansion and development.

HAF enables any developer to operate as long as he or she knows how to interact with databases (which they all do). We can see how this can open the door to more development by appealing to a wider range of application developers.

Naturally, this can feed into the first two forecasts made. As the number of applications increases, there is the potential for more users to get involved. This will only enhance the need for both HIVE and HBD for the reasons mentioned above.

Smart Contract Capabilities

This is an area that was lacking on Hive for the last few years. Actually, it was the case since the beginning but over the last couple years we realized how important it is to have this functionality. Hive-Engine was the first to start bringing this to the chain. Now we see more taking place.

By the end of 2022, we will likely see another few platforms that have smart contract capabilities. This is going to include the team from @dlux-io and perhaps Blocktrades. We are going to see the emergence of SpkNetwork during the year which will also aid in this effort, albeit not directly to start.

Having this will open up a host of possibilities. We are going to see more Decentralized Finance (DeFi) applications built along with NFTs. Hive is off to a good start in both these areas.

Decentralized Autonomous Organization (DAO)

This is the final thought as we head into the new year. The last couple years saw the emergence of DeFi in 2020 and NFTs in 2021. My guess is 2022 is going to see DAOs really start to take off.

What is happening in the rest of the cryptocurrency world will be occurring on Hive. There is already the Decentralized Hive Fund (DHF) which is a DAO at the base layer. We will see this idea expand over the next 12 months.

Do not be surprised if there are some people on Hive who create outside projects that utilize the DAO business structure. Through the layer 2 token creation mechanism, we will see these funded and operated. Experimentation with governance systems will take place, hopefully moving the entire concept forward.

Many entrepreneurs are going to start seeing the value of this and toy with the concept. Hive will have a few set up by the end of the year.

So what are your thoughts? Do you see these forecasts taking place? What are some that you believe will happen?


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37 comments
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Bang, I did it again... I just rehived your post!
Week 87 of my contest just started...you can now check the winners of the previous week!
!BEER
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I'm mostly excited about project blank and ragnarok. I've missed the boat with splinterlands, but I hope to catch the train early on with Ragnarok.

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From the AMA there will be plenty of time with that. It will be released on Testnet in mid 2022, with a year of testing.

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Ultimately, we will see HBD become a payment token in 2022.

Now I imagined using a credit card to pay directly with HBD in the grocery store. It would be beautiful. Of course this probably will not happen, or at least not soon, but it would be amazing/beautiful.

Happy New Year to everyone.

Have a nice day. All the best. Greetings and much love from Hungary.

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Hmm that might be part of the evolution. I am not sure how that would all work.

To start, we need to get the token stable and more adopted on Hive. Then we can branch out and see where things progress.

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I think that the price of HIVE will not be below $1 in 2022. We might see above the recent ATH. I am also looking forward to HBD Bond.

The more stability on the price of HIVE, the more users and the more contents, we will see. I wish much more popularity for HIVE, because it is still known not much in the world.

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I am also looking forward to HBD Bond.

Nothing more than speculation at this point. Hopefully can get the idea flowing of at least a 1 year lock up account with a 20% interest rate. That should not be hard to program and would give us a test run to see what it can do.

As for the price, never say never. It could end up below a dollar or be $5. I have no idea.

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I agree with you. I believe HBD stability would be something that would happen in 2022. With Ragnarok also integrating Hbd as a major token in the game. Everything looks set.
I'm so excited about Ragnarok, I believe many others too.

Happy New Year @taskmaster4450.

!PIZZA !giphy happy new year!

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I agree to everything said above. 2022 should be a year of great developments, as 2021 serves as a stepping stone, the year ahead and beyond will see most of them materialize.

That said, there's still a part of this, which I'd love to have more details on. I know one thing, and that's that most people believe it's complex, speaking of HIVE inflation specifically, is it possible you've made a post in the past centered on how it works? If not, I'd appreciate if one was brought forth...

Happy New Year in advance

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I am not following you @badbitch. What are you asking about the inflation? How it works?

Please elaborate a bit for me.

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Oh sorry about that, had to reread that part, you were talking about Hive supply, it's cool...

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I've recently started using the savings for rewards from posts. I've also been putting powered down HIVE in there. Does the 12% pay in both HIVE and HBD or just HBD?

I'm tired of waiting and whening for #project blank... they need to get to it 🥱

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Development takes time. They are constructing a lot of it for the mobile application. My guess is we see it in Q1.

They had to revamp the entire project and start from scratch. Never easy to do but that is how it works with new technology.

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We hope so we could see some more updates to the Hive blockchain in 2022.

2022 seems to be good compared to 2021 for hive.

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I’m really looking forward to RC pools. We currently have no price discovery mechanism for resource credits. We think of them as “free” but in that accounts cost 3 Hive to create, we do have a hint about what the real value of RC’s might be.

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I lost track of that. I know they are working on the RC delegation, that is up next. Are RC pools still on the table?

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(Edited)

Not sure but I haven’t seen anything about them no longer being on the table.

But I’m having a harder and harder time keeping up with all that’s going on here, so could be wrong.

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Well there is a 5% haircut for converting HIVE into HBD so I think it makes more sense to convert that using the internal or external exchange for HBD. All of the points you raise can definitely happen but I think HBD probably has the highest hurdle. We probably need more utility on HBD before things can happen.

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I agree utility has to increase a great deal.

We will see what is rolled out during the first quarter. That will be a sign for the rest of the year in my opinion.

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¡Feliz año 2022 son mis mas sincero deseos Compañer@!

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Hive has consolidated very well this year, splinterlands is perhaps the nft game I see more content and its bloggers network is growing day by day, next year will be better no doubt about that.

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I’m curious of your thoughts on something.

Right now a game like dCrops sends funds from pack sales to an account that earns and pays out a portion of the returns to asset holders.

What would be the advantage of using HBD for this instead? Obviously, there’s the stability of a steady return, but what about what will be missed when Hive spikes to the next level?

Is it really just as simple as risk vs reward or is there a way to have the best of both worlds? Would it be more advantageous to split those sales into two pools, hive/hbd?

Is there a way to leverage them against each other?

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What you are describing is opportunity cost. For example, you would have done better buying Tesla stock at the beginning of the year with USD as opposed to paying your electric bill. Of course, then you would be sitting in the dark. Nevertheless, the fact that an asset goes up means there is a "loss" to not being in it.

In this instance, DCrops is taking payment in Tesla stock as opposed to USD. By using HIVE as the token, you are potentially missing out on an opportunity. Using HBD does not provide that directly since it is pegged (ish). Of course, you could convert your HBD to HIVE and say it is the same thing. Hence the analogy to Tesla and USD.

The end game should be apps should start accepting payment in HBD and that is what all transactions of that nature on Hive should be based. If we do not start using it ourselves, who will?

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The end game should be apps should start accepting payment in HBD and that is what all transactions of that nature on Hive should be based. If we do not start using it ourselves, who will?

This makes perfect sense, and leads me to wonder why we’re just now realizing it.

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How do you think the scarcity of Hive would affect token prices? Will acquiring and staking tokens be seen as important as having Resource Credits?

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Obviously the scarcity will send the price higher. However, it could act as a cap since it could also slow growth. We are woefully low on accounts right now. RCs might solved to a degree with the delegation but, again, with more than a million active users, that would get up eaten quickly too.

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Hopefully the masses will arrive at the benefit of tokenized social media in 2022 and join Hive in droves.

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Alot of upgrade coming to the hive this year, but the major change i will like to see is from the hive-engine team, with upgrade on the cancle of open order after 30days because that was what killed most of the tribes and tokens on hive-engine without that upgrade no hive engine token will survive or get proper liquidity...Probably they are waiting for other projects to come displace them from the hive ecosystem, splinterland and leofinance could solve this problem by looking outside the hive ecosystem that is why they could get to the timeline..

In as much as we all clamour for decentralization we still need some form of centralization when it comes to trading for price stabilty.

i will like too see a centralized exchange handle the affairs of trading hive-engine tokens and bring prize stability to the community

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Games are so huge and help to propel technology forward. Think of the majority of time spent on a smartphone. Most smartphone screen activity is spent on games. Have a spare few minutes out comes the phone and boom they are playing a game.

These games normally cost money as they go structured as a Freemium model. They can start for free but if they would like to have any extras that help them to level up they will need to pay a small fee.

Blockchain gaming will change everything. The second people start to realize they can burn just as much time on the blockchain and make a bit of money, wow things will explode.

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