Cryptocurrency Market Cap To $40 Trillion?

We get all kinds of wild eyed projections taking place surrounding cryptocurrency. Recently, a conference was held where a few Venture Capital players in the crypto space were brought together. It is interesting to see how they view things.

From a financial point of view, these individuals look at things from the growth perspective. Long-term is not so much about market movements since they tend to even out over time. Short and even medium term variations in the market can happen. Yet when we look over 5+ years, markets tend to flush the non-performers out.

Cryptocurrency is certainly going to radically change the way the world operates. This is going to generate tremendous value over the next few decades. How much is hotly contested. Of course, they are all forecasts so some are apt to be wrong.

There is, however, a lot of justification for the longer term upward moves we see.

Adoption Rates

This is a hotly contested topic within the cryptocurrency community. It is hard to figure out exactly where everything stands. That said, it is evident, even from the "eyeball test", that things are getting more active. In other words, more people are coming into the space.

We see the formation of a rapidly expanding system. The combination of users, developers, and entrepreneurs is growing things at an incredible pace. There is also a large flow of investment money as entities vie for their piece of this ever growing pie.

Adoption rate can also be termed Network Effect. This is vital in the overall valuation of technological entities. We saw this with companies such as Google and Facebook.

Triple A, a Singapore based company, released a report on global cryptocurrency adoption rates. Here is what they concluded:

  • India – 100.7 million
  • USA – 27.5 million
  • Russia – 17.4 million
  • Nigeria – 13 million
  • Brazil – 10.4 million
  • Pakistan – 9.1 million
  • Vietnam – 6 million
  • Ukraine – 5.6 million
  • Kenya – 4.6 million
  • Philippines – 4.4 million

This amounts to roughly 190 million people. It is a number that is alignment with other estimates about what cryptocurrency usage is. Of course, we see China excluded from the list which means there could be a lot more users.

We also saw a listing as a percentage of the population.

  • Ukraine 12.73%
  • Russia 11.91%
  • Venezuela 10.34%
  • Singapore 9.04%
  • Kenya 8.52%
  • USA 8.31%
  • India 7.30%
  • South Africa 7.11%
  • Nigeria 6.31%
  • Colombia 6.14%

This shows how much room there is for growth. The three largest populations are China, India, and the United States. On this list, the U.S. tops with under 9% penetration rate. China is not even listed, probably due to the crackdowns in that country.

Even if these numbers are off a bit, we are seeing some massive growth and adoption rate moving higher.

The Case For $40 Trillion Market Cap

We can easily see how the value of the entire market grows as adoption rates increase. Similar to the Internet, as users start to spend time engaging, more commercial value is created. Of course, at that time, it was all locked in companies, beginning the process of an exclusionary system.

Cryptocurrency is inclusive. While many governments are moving to restrict access, the global nature of cryptocurrency makes it impossible. Also, we see a technology, at its core, that can operate on a peer-to-peer nature. That makes regulation and the attempt to stop things less effective.

Here is the video with Dan Tapiero, Mark Yusko, and Dan Morehead. They discuss different aspects of cryptocurrency along with where they think things are heading. All are career money managers running funds that are invested in the crypto space long ago.

The predictions of market cap is at 29:20.

We see the present market cap, as listed on Coingecko, at $2 trillion. This would be a 20x jump from where things are at the moment.

There is another factor to consider. We know that not everything is listed on sites like this. Many projects are not accounted for, especially when we look at the NFT world. Hence why one of the Dans was saying that the market cap was $3 trillion. It is likely there is at least another trillion dollars worth of digital assets not in the major listings.

One of the main drivers is going to be the continued adoption rates. As we saw with a game like @splinterlands, as user counts increase, we see the value of the in-game assets follow a similar path. This concept can be extrapolated across the entire spectrum.

Reed's Law is one of the most overlooked concepts in the cryptocurrency space. Many point to Metcalfe's Law as the theory which quantifies the Network Effect. To me, this underestimates what is taking place.

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Obviously, we are now getting into the fun with numbers game. However, the key point here is to not look at the absolute numbers as much as the difference in trend. What we see is the value using Reed's Law becomes a much bigger number than under Metcalfe's. The value tied to the growth rate is much larger that most people expect.

This does seem logical when we consider it. Think of the idea of interoperability and the ability to use a node (wallet, account) in many different ways. Consider taking ETH, wrapping it, and transmitting it on another decentralized blockchain at a much lower rate. This provides access to all Ethereum wallet holders while also saving the users money AND providing more value to the token holders of the second chain.

Keep expanding this concept out over thousands of projects and we see how the valuation can really get insane.

For now, based upon the video, the $40 trillion value is done simply by keeping the existing market growth rate over the last decade. This is a sensible way to look at things. We know that Bitcoin has increased at a steady pace over the long-term. The same holds true for Ethereum. Now we are starting to see other assets join the same trend.

Perhaps this is a bit of an overestimate in the 5 years that was discussed in the video. Or maybe, it is too conservative.

What are your thoughts? Will we see a $40 trillion market cap in 5 years?


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(Edited)

thanks for throwing up a video for us to watch! glad to see what your interested in.. im listening to it now.

I feel like we should be reaching out to alteast the guy in the middle and the one on his right.. and then go after the one on the left last or let the other two bring him along..

I can wait till these 3 guys find out about our blockchain..

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pixresteemer_incognito_angel_mini.png
Bang, I did it again... I just rehived your post!
Week 75 of my contest just started...you can now check the winners of the previous week!
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its funny that the guy in the middle when he went on the rant about how you'd have to spend 1 dollar ever second for 3700 years (something to that effect) and basically ended the rant by saying that this is a failing republic.. god i wish the average american would wake up and see that it is time to dissolve this failed experiment and try again with some new ingredients, technology, and methods.

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The only problem with that view point is they do not understand that technology is changing the entire equation. They invest in technologies that get more powerful and have greater impact on larger sections of the economy yet fail to link up the fact that, as it spreads throughout this decade, it is building massive deflation pressures.

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I think we could absolutely see 40 trillion market cap in 5 years. Maybe even more than that. With the rate of adoption going exponential recently, it would be shocking for that not to happen.

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It could be more than that. We will have to see how adoption and development goes. But a lot of good things happening. The key is for things to keep spreading out which they are.

Imagine what something like SpkNetwork could be worth in 5 years.

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190 million people is a good amount, but we need more and more people. It would fine to know daily and montly adoption rates.

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Certainly we need to have the growth rates continue. That said, we were at an estimated 100 million to start the year so it is a big boost up.

While the numbers are hard to get exact, the trend is there.

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Awesome post! Reblogged and upvoted due to its awesomness and quality.

!PIZZA

!LUV

Welcome to 🍕the Cool Pool Pizza Party!🍕

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It is no joke every time I look at the pic at the end of each of your post for Vision2025.
Blockchain brings value where instantly that can transform.
$40 trillion for crypto is another way of saying the old system demises by itself where privacy, security prime.
I think it is around the corner and within the next 10 years
we will witness how crypto with less effort conquers the world we see today.
China wants to control crypto from the core.

!BEER

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Sorry, you don't have enough staked BEER in your account. You need 24 BEER in your virtual fridge to give some of your BEER to others. To view or trade BEER go to hive-engine.com

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I think we will see an evolution away from the traditional system over to crypto. Each dollar (or whatever currency unit) moved to crypto weakens that system.

It simply comes down to transactions in my opinion. And we will likely see the crypto based transactions increasing while the ones in the established systems decrease.

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To be realistic I feel $40 trillion is too much for 5 years but am sure of at least $10 trillion. May be in the next 10 years we can see that amount of growth.

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You could be right. It is hard to tell.

One thing I can say is that we get overwhelmed by the raw numbers. But if we look at it as a multiple gain, it doesnt seem as much.

But as the numbers get larger, it takes more to move it.

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40 trillion cap in 5 years doesn't look attainable.

I might foresee a 10 trillion cap

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Well there is still a lot of money in the bonds and etc. So it's true that crypto can go way higher but I am not sure if it will reach 40 trillion so fast since the current institutions will try their best to stop it.

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You are right there is a lot of money out there. We are also going to see a ton of tokenized projects created, many that will catch on.

That will also enhance the total value.

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(Edited)

Hi @taskmaster4450le

For me will say the 40 trillion market cap would be possible but I don't think in 5 years time, let's like 10 years time. Because from your post the list all the countries percentage population is under 9%, china isn't even among the list yet due to the crypto ban, if the percentage population could go over 20% to 30% the 20x jump would be more realistic within 5years.

The crypto space keeps growing everyday no matter how some people refuse to accept it, but with the awareness is going think soon can't predict when but see more countries adopting crypto like El Salvador did

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It could be too aggressive a time line so we shall see.

The big growth can come from the uprising of a few projects lower down. They can add billions in a quick period of time.

It will be fun to watch.

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Certainly, the crypto industry shall keep growing regardless. I look forward to more growth and development across the globe. Inspite of the recent issues at China, I keep accumulating more altcoins on my decentralized multi-coin wallet from https://atomicwallet.io/.

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At the rate everything is going, I would say that in about 3 years we could reach this achievement, since everything is accelerating x4 month by month.

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3 years is very aggressive but I would not argue against it.

Certainly could happen if the bull keeps running and we double the user base again in 2022.

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