Is Facebook Destined To Be The Like AOL?
There was a time when companies such as Prodigy, Compuserve, and AOL controlled the Internet.
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Back the early days, during the 1990s, AOL came to be the dominant force online. Few who were around in that period can not remember the discs that were being sent out. They arrived in the mail and were placed in many major magazines. There simply was no way to avoid that company.
During that period, AOL looked insurmountable. It was the leading Internet company, one that was destined to rule forever. Or so many thought.
AOL's Advantage
AOL actually stood for America Online. That was the concept the company was promoting.
When the Internet first arrived, the general technical aptitude of the public was very low. Dealing with this new medium was really only a world of techies. Most did not jump to embrace what was taking place.
This changed with the introduction of AOL. Its platform simplified things a great deal for the average user. What is ironic, looking back, is how basic things truly were.
Most of the activity was centered around messenger service. The early days of the Internet enabled people to send messages back and forth to each other, something rather novel at the time. For services such as Prodigy, this was a difficult task.
AOL brought a package to the table that allowed not only messenger service but enabled one to receive information. Suddenly, news headlines and articles could appear as well as emails. The fact that it was all contained on one platform made it very successful.
Of course, this was the epitome of centralization. AOL controlled all the content that people saw. For the time it was fine yet that was changing also.
Information Yearns To Be Free
This is a saying that many ascribe to. Their belief is that, eventually, information gets out. It cannot be contained behind walls forever. This is precisely what AOL was doing.
Around that time, Tim Berners-Lee was developing the World Wide Web. Here we saw the mechanism which provided the Internet with its astonishing growth throughout the 1990s and early 2000s.
Now people were able to embark upon a system where a host of services showed up. Whereas people were limited with AOL only to what they provided, the Web suddenly because a place where all kinds of information along with services were popping up. The appeal of AOL was rapidly diminishing.
Before that happened, AOL was a major media player. If fact, it was the first company to rival its non-online counterpart. This led to the merger of the company with Time Warner, a $180 billion deal.
Like many of the other early Internet deals, this one was bound to blow up. The eventual value of AOL, like Yahoo, was pennies on the dollar.
Nevertheless, this shows the magnitude of the company before this happened.
A Company Eaten Away At
Speaking of the aforementioned Yahoo, and later Google, these were services that started to chip away at AOL's dominance.
Email services were the first mainstream application for the Internet. While AOL offered this, those companies specialized in it. Their early versions were basic yet they quickly added to their offerings. They incorporated news into their services all without having to install software.
For many years, people stuck with AOL simply because the hassle of changing one's email address. This was usually the older generations who fell into this category. As more younger people joined, they quickly signed up with the newer companies, forgoing AOL.
Over time, this ate away at AOL's customer base.
This shows the danger of being a walled ecosystem. While it is extremely profitable since the userbase is contained, eventually people end up breaking out. Innovation tends to be limited along with the inevitable company missteps. When this happens, as more options appear, we see the natural decline.
Will Facebook Be The New AOL?
Much of what is written here can obviously be applied to Facebook. We see how that is a walled system whereby that company is in control of everything. The banning of accounts while censoring information is becoming very well known.
Zuckerberg is one who appears out of touch with the general public. There is no doubt he understands human psychology and programs that into the algorithms. However, when truly grasping the way humans are, he does not seem to get it.
Facebook is very dictatorial in nature. They take the approach of forcing whatever their will upon the userbase. Thus far, it really has not hindered them.
The company also has some terrific foresight. Zuckerberg does understand where things are heading from a technological standpoint. However, the company cannot seem to overcome the missteps that keep befalling it. In fact, they are only accelerating.
For example, the vision of how Virtual Reality is going to play into things is well known. That company is ahead of everyone else. Nevertheless, the company botched it when it decided it was going to insert advertisements in its VR applications. This is not something the users wanted and it was soundly rejected.
This showed what Facebook thinks of the userbase. It is only looking to leverage all the data it acquired so as to sell it to willing advertisers. Quite frankly, it really does not care what they are either.
Being out of touch does not help when one is trying to help create the next generation of the Internet. The reason for this is that many believe it is going to be "experiencial". This means the user experience is all that matters. Obviously, this is not maximized by inserting ads everywhere for the platform's benefit.
Open Networks
Much like the World Wide Web, we are seeing networks being developed that are open. This aligns much better with the idea of experience over interaction.
Many are calling this the transition from Web 2.0 to Web 3.0. It is hard to dispute that the tokenization process is changing how people operate. No longer are they the product. Instead, they share in the financial success of the network. Since it is open, anyone is free to come and go.
Facebook is still operating from the "Walled Garden" approach. This is what took over the Internet after the fall of the likes of AOL. Internet giants emerged leveraging the network effect to control users. This became enormously profitable.
The question is whether this approach is going to be valid for much longer. Facebook is introducing its own token, one that will give he illusion of being part of Web 3.0. Sadly, it will just be dressing up the same centralized system.
Most people do not care about this stuff. What they do like, however, is options. They were not concerned about the fact that AOL was in control of everything until they realize they were missing out on a lot of things. That is where the Rubicon was crossed. Once people understood that, they started to migrate.
Will the same happen to Facebook? Only time will tell the answer to that. However, what we do know is that people will opt for other applications. The history with AOL proves that.
Therefore, it is best not to think of Facebook as insurmountable. The company might be on more fragile ground than any of us realize.
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Facebook I an amazing place to make friends but I don't like the way they operate cause sometimes stop freedom of speech also sell our data lol
It's always about money and money, more Money and control. Thing is, facebook has been incoperated into the lives of people so much that it's become an attitude, like you said, Zuckerberg plays his game well. But one thing I know Facebook cannot achieve is having a shot at a decentralised token. It's contradictory to how it is even built.
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Facebook was almost dead before they brought short videos into their platform in the last few years.
I don't know about people around you, but people around me are lost for hours watching random videos on facebook.
I remember a few times I was getting bored, waiting and sitting somewhere, and a friend or cousin showed me videos on facebook, and you can literally spend hours watching it. There is so much random content there.
Zuckerberg and team work pretty well on algorithms. Sharing revenue through ads on videos motivates a small percentage of people to put out more and more content that bigger percentage could consume.
Maybe, in the next 5 years, people will understand that watching random videos for hours is no good. It's better to consume limited useful content, or create something online.
But till then, I see facebook surviving. At least for the next 5-8 years. Don't know after that.
I am sure, something like hive will win in the long term.
we have been taught that we should never bet on stability and lasting order as everything changes. It won't be a surprise if Facebook turns out to be just like AOL especially with its censorship roles.
I pay attention to the things I write or share on Facebook, which includes my timeline, and my ads account. And that is because of the censorship
Currently, anyone who has an older Facebook account holds unto it with care, because opening a new one always proves abortive, as the tendency to get locked out for flimsy excuses is high.
The fact that Facebook is operating from a walled garden could be one of the things that will send them out of business just as AOL. As blockchain will overpower it.
However, if we look at the bright side, that picture where the owner and investors of Facebook Begin to embrace the unique and amazing features of blockchain, this includes the transparent nature too, then, Facebook will be able to create a lasting impact
cant believe how many still use it
I don't like such kind of attitude of Facebook as a leader. It is trying to to influence on many matters. That's the core problem. I have reduced my using a Facebook dramatically since I have initiated my journey in the blockchain, and this is another good reason behind that.
There are still people that use it mostly friends and family but you're bombarded with ads and its rather dumb lol I haven't touched the thing in years now and I feel their userbase has fallen off. However they do still have Instagram and I feel like that's what's really making progress while Facebook is just old and blah anymore.
They tried a number of times to expand already such as with getting into the gaming space and introducing Facebook gaming. That was a botched job that cost them big money.
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Facebook is likely going the way of AOL if they continue to operate this there present way unless they can adapt decentralization system.
It is only a matter of time before a large number of people realise that they can no longer be posting on the social media without earning from it.
I was there for AOL almost at the beginning. Before the CD-Rom software, they would send out 3 1/2 inch floppies. Which I could reuse.
I see your point about old technology being replaced. I got into AOL because everyone I knew was on there. Then I followed all my friends to FB. But FB is poised to fail. It’s just too big now and too controlling.
I tried to be the trendsetter and get everyone on Steem first and then Hive. I’m still waiting for my friends, but in the meantime I’m growing so I can give them a bigger welcome. !pizza !beer !wine
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I really hope so as I can't stand the site. I remember sites like Alta Vista who were your search engines at the time and they vanished overnight after having success for a good few years. Yahoo with Kevin Costner backing them were also around but were swamped when development happened and that was the end of their time in the limelight.
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If Facebook manages to play its game right with their digital currency and the metaverse, it won't have the faith of AOL, although that's what I wish for it. It's a garbage of an app that I ditched over four years ago.
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Lmao!
I can't even read this post before ranting about what came to mind when I saw the introduction.
There's a podcast called The 90s Sucked on the Unpopular Opinion (Unpops?) network that did a show about those fucking discs, and one of the facts of the show that really stood out was that for either 2 weeks or 2 months AOL bought every blank cd that was manufactured in the world to print those fucking discs.
Music artists, audiobooks, consumers at large sat on their hands for 2 somethings waiting for blank cds while AOL crop dusted the whole planet with those fucking discs.
They were everywhere. If you rented a movie or shopped for groceries, there were free AOL discs at the checkout and scattered throughout the store.
AOL did testing to see if they would hold up under harsh environmental conditions to so they could pack them in boxes of Omaha Steaks.
And I think what I think is actually funny about it, is through the eyes of history they will be seen as the confetti left over from the party humanity threw when we invented the internet.
Anyway, I'm gonna give this post another shot. I hope the rest is as inspiring. :D
Ok, for realzies this time...
I generally don't think about stuff like this on my own, so it's really nice to see the similarities laid out like this.
I love the idea of MZuck standing at the helm of the S.S. Facebook looking dumbfounded and butthurt as he helplessly watches everyone jumping off his sinking ship.
And not at all relevant, but I also think it's neat that AOL, Blockbuster Video, and, someday Facebook all will have flown that goddamn blue flag straight to hell. I don't even know why I thought about that or seem to have strong feeling about it. I'm gonna bounce before this becomes an episode.
I think it will transform into something else. In the future maybe Facebook as a social network could disappear but as a company... probably not. Of course, I would like people to stop using anything related to Facebook and start using Hive and similars.
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I think the next generation have already started making their choice on preferred social media pages, and I don't think Facebook makes the cut.
Whether they try to deny it or not, people recognize their obvious greed putting profits over their privacy and while a gradual process, a reaction is inevitable
No, the same thing will not happend to F-c-book
F-c-book will not disappear into obscurity, no, they will be hunted down and made to pay for their crimes against humanity.
F-c-book did not make it as others like it failed; no it was funded with very deep pockets and given every chance of its success while its competitors were driven to death. Further, it is designed to make you angry and addicted. That is besides it stealing all your data.
In the future, i believe we will all have wall-servers. Basically, play and play micro servers that just next to the internet router. You have complete control of who sees what.
Where i think the future will be is in the interfaces that check all your friend's wall servers and combines them for you to view