Forget ChatGPT: Robo-Lawyers Are Here
OpenAI made a lot of noise with the release of ChatGPT. It certainly is something that is rather impressive. However, whatever dystopian ideas people are promoting, it is still rather limited. That does not mean we are not right to be careful with our trek down this path. We ultimately could be making something that is extremely dangerous to humanity.
In the meantime, we will watch AI take jobs. This is something that is long forecasts, and I believe has happened. Many futurists will claim that technology always created more jobs than it destroyed. On this I call "bullsh*t".
We have used this chart before yet it really does tell the story. The last 20 years were the most advanced in human history. This at a time when the GDP of the United State skyrockets.
Here is a 50 year view to put it all in context.
The labor force participation rate peaked in 2000. Yet the GDP of the country kept growing at a consistent rate. To me, this proves the idea a fallacy.
This is what technology does. It increases economic output while decreasing the need for labor (i.e. people).
Robo-Lawyer
It looks like all those years spent on law school is going to be nothing more than a pursuit in acquiring debt.
History is about to be made when the first robo-lawyer takes to court.
Fortunately, this is not a capital murder case. It is a dispute over a traffic ticket. Hence, the stakes aren't as high as one would think.
Nevertheless, from a technological standpoint, this is a huge test. Can AI operate in the real world, in real time? Of course, many will be watching to see what else is possible.
Here is how it works:
Joshua Browder, CEO of DoNotPay, said the company's AI-creation runs on a smartphone, listens to court arguments and formulates responses for the defendant. The AI lawyer tells the defendant what to say in real-time, through headphones.
What is the law? Isn't nothing more than information assimilated in a proper order and presented? Certainly, there is something to be said for the courtroom manner of some top attornies. They know how to read the situation, like a jury, and do have talents above just the knowledge of the law.
However, this is not the norm. Most cases are rather humdrum, filled with information and precedent. Here is where a robo-lawyer could be even more valuable.
Of course, we have to acknowledge we are dealing with low hanging fruit on this one. Traffic court isn't the most exciting, nor the most detailed. Again, this is what we are seeing with AI; the taking over of the easy stuff.
One thing is also for certain: as time passes the technology gets better. Just look at the different iterations of GPT.
The Decade Of Job Destruction
We can see how AI could do a lot of things better than many humans. Are they cut out for every situation? Of course not. Nevertheless, as these systems get better, it stands to reason the "hive mind" of all this will only improve.
For example, we covered robo-surgeons about a year or so ago. That is the idea of robots doing surgery. While this could cause one to step back, when we think it through, there is a lot of sense to this.
If the "touch" is there, we know the robot can bring consistency to the table. It is why robots took over the assemly lines. When a rivet needs to be bolted in the same place on ever vehicle, a robot can do it consistently for 12-16 hours per day.
Also, we cannot overlook the cloud mind behind something like this. How many surgeries does a doctor do? Perhaps 2 a day, which equates to 10 per week. Over the course of a career, that might equate to 15K surgeries. Of course, when the person retires, all those surgeries exit too.
With a cloud mind, the machine learning engine is constantly being fed. So every surgery is in its database. Over time, as more surgeries take place, the system can do tens of thousands, in a year. No longer is the system dependent upon individuals. The entire system has the knowledge base.
These are just some of the possibilities. We are still a long way from a lot of this occurring in everyday life. However, do not be surprised if the traffic ticket robo-lawyer sees its skills upgraded. Maybe capital murder will always be out of reach but perhaps the next step might be property disputes.
AI is going to wipe out a ton of jobs. This is something that humanity is not prepared for.
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I suspect that AI robots will create millions of jobs.
Just think of all the lawsuits and AI lawyer could file in a given day!
For example every copyright infraction on this web site is a potential lawsuit. (Every perceived copyright infraction is also a potential suit. Seriously, how original are your posts? Have you ever repeated an idea that you heard discussed, are you certain you have the copyright for the chart?).
The lawsuits go unfiled simply because the cost of filing suits is higher than the potential payout.
Since AIs can process gigabytes of data and work 24/7, there is no end to the number of lawsuits they can create.
Now, here is the deal, every lawsuit requires a legal defense. The plebes will have to to hire inefficient people lawyers to stand against the nimble AI lawyers.
Yes the defense lawyers are apt to hire additional lawyers. But guess what? All of the AI-Lawyers that enter the legal profession will increase the number of suits exponentially.
AIs entering the legal profession will guarantee full employment for all lawyers.
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I agree!
So according to your logic, when more is created by technology, more jobs are required.
How did that work in manufacturing? Bookkeeping? Finance?
Each major iteration seems to wipe out more jobs in an industry.
For this reason, I think history shows that, once technology gets going, your theory ends up going by the wayside.
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Lawyers have the ability to create their own demand.
When lawyers sue, they create a demand for more lawyers.
Manufacturing has some ability to create demand which is why there is more stuff manufactured today then there was at the start of the industrial revolution.
BTW: The US and Europe is experiencing the effects of outsourcing. When we started outsourcing our primary manufacturers we saw a collapse of all the companies that supported the manufacturers.
China has been expanding its manufacturing sector. They had been seeing the exponential growth in manufacturing.
The same concept applies to the internet. There was no demand for internet 30 years ago. The creation of the technology created a huge demand for internet related things.
I thought I read something a few years ago that all of the major “news” stories that are in the major platforms like CNN and NYT are all written by AI and the people throw a few words on it to make it seem legit but the base of it all is written by AI and then republished on all of the dinosaur sites.
at any rate though, there’s going to be one heck of a shift in these jobs. I’m wondering where we will fit into all of this. It’s impossible to say at this point sadly.
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I think if you are good at what you do...AI will be a good assistant but they can not replace people. There is so much a bot can not understand. Even for something as simple as a chair, robots cannot understand how we know to sit on a chair at different angles and at different positions in relation to light.
A presumption that costs people. The things machines can do better than people keeps growing every day. This is something that we cannot avoid. You can point to a particular area yet, over time, it gets better.
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Very true.
I'm surprised people aren't catching on. It's not just the news. Every new movie that is heavily advertised feels like it was written by an AI with very little human intervention.
Eventually, I think people that are good at prompts will find a ton of jobs. Those that have the best "fine-tuning skills" will probably be in demand if we don't come up with an automated process for that as well.
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I am not sure which media outlets do it but many are using AI to write the stories. The ones that do use people to edit and make sure the story flows. From what I understand, the Ai systems still have difficulty in inference and other parts of language. That is why a lot of AI is relegated to writing technical papers.
But it is improving and was some time since I researched it so I am sure it improved greatly.
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THis is why it was so confusing to me that everyone thinks Elon Musk — a robotics, logistics, and automation company— bought twitter for anything other than having free access to an almost unliimited real time data ffeed to train his cars and robots AI with.
It's also the reason why I'm always baffled when people say this life changing tech is decades out. In five years this world will be unrecognizable to what it is today. We won't realize it because it takes us 13 seconds of having new tech to feel like we've always had it but it will be.
I dont think Elon brought twitter for that reason, it was just a side benefit.
His goal with twitter is to become the largest financial institution in the world. There are 300 million users, more than any financial company. If he builds in payments, financial purchases, and basically combines the social media with finance, he will be huge.
Think about how many mortgages he could orginate just by offering it on the app. Why should Rocket Mortgage get all the business?
I think that is his thinking.
As for the time, yeah things are moving quickly with AI and robotics. This is here now, albeit in embryotic form in many ways.
Yet as we know, they do grow up fast.
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Now this is epic and something I'd be interested in watching or see a write up after picking it apart pros and cons system or missed marks. Idk why but that really interests me and I can see real possibilities with it!
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Yeah the pressure is on. I wonder if losing the case will be a setback. LOL
Of course, it is only traffic court so nobody cares.
Can see that automated someday. Everyone hates it from judges to lawyers to defendents.
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I read that the case will be done through a hands-free device. The bot will listen and the client will speak. I think bots make the job easier for those who know their beans and those who know their beans can not be replaced.
I was having issues with the legal implications of some illustration I was making for a client and sorted it out with AI. People who aren't good enough will lose the privilege to get paid for observership and assists.
Can they even let the AI tell the person what to say on the stage? I don't think they can. They can coach people before they get on the stand but I don't think it's allowed for them to do anything like that.
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The laws vary by state. So this is obviously on that allows telecommunication from the outside during a case.
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I ve tried not to agree much with the taking of jobs that many opine that AI has come to do, really, my take is that we have a tool we can use for our jobs, gas cookers and utensils will always face an upgrade in the kitchen, it doesnt replace the cook, and even if AI makes the recipe and a robot cooks the food, there l still be demand for human labour in several ways. It rather exponentially increase output rate and production. An arguement placed out is such that is similar to the use of the internet and calculators, they never replaced solving maths and google soon became our friend and not our competitor. However, sole dependence on AI may lead to some forms of laziness and laxity on the human part.
Great post Sir
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