Is the default is canceled? How long will the EU economy survive under sanctions against Russia?

The default that analysts have been talking about for so long is being postponed. The Ministry of Finance of Russia paid coupon income in the amount of $117.2 million on Russian Eurobonds. The next major payment is to be made on April 4, when $2 billion worth of Eurobonds are redeemed. Until that day, default supporters have no chance. Neither formal nor practical.

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Following this news, the default index of the Russian Federation fell to 60% compared to yesterday. And the situation with the ruble exchange rate on MOEX (Moscow Exchange) has changed dramatically. The ruble rose from 105 rubles / dollar to 103.13 rubles / dollar.

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Taking into account the current parameters of oil and gas consumption in 2022, oil consumption will exceed 100 million barrels per day, growth in natural gas consumption will be 14.5% per year. With such demand, it is absolutely unbelievable to exclude Russia from the world resource suppliers. Russia only from European countries, despite all the sanctions, receives more than $ 1 billion per day for hydrocarbons, and a decrease in this revenue is not expected.

Realtime counter

The introduction of the rule of mandatory sale by exporters of 80% of foreign exchange earnings on the stock exchange has already borne fruit. Excess foreign exchange assets of exporters are beginning to put pressure on supply volumes on the Moscow Exchange. But the import of goods to Russia has declined quite a lot. Therefore, every day there is an inevitable appreciation of the ruble.

Speculators who saved their rubles from depreciation and bought dollars at 150 rubles already understand that they have succumbed to a false hype and are now at a current loss. Further inflow of foreign exchange earnings to the stock exchange will contribute to the normalization of the ruble exchange rate to the level of 94-87 rubles in the coming weeks.

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In addition, the revenue of Russian exporters in monetary terms will grow due to the general increase in prices for any export goods of Russia, including hydrocarbons.

But the petrodollar is already clearly visible the prospect of real death. Saudi Arabia held talks with Beijing on payments for the sale of oil to China in yuan. Moreover, China buys approximately 25% of oil from Saudi Arabia. Since 1974, payments for supplies have been made in US dollars.

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India has published a statement about its desire to settle accounts with Russia for oil in rupees or rubles. The agreement is under preparation. Now the front line of the struggle for the economic strangulation of Russia is between the United States and China.

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Joe Biden intends to threaten Xi Jinping that the US will take action if it turns out that China supports Russia's actions in Ukraine, US Secretary of State Blinken said. But despite this, official China in all instances, including the UN, declared support for Russia. China is a great country and will not tolerate threats from anyone, said a spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry.

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also, an official representative of the PRC Foreign Ministry said that the Chinese perfectly remember the bombing of Yugoslavia, as well as who blew up the building of the PRC embassy in Belgrade with a direct hit by a cruise missile.

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It may very well turn out that another attempt to “tear the Russian economy to shreds” may turn out to be not just an unjustified adventure, but also a very dangerous mistake.

As one crypto journalist wrote: “You want to tear apart the world's first player in the energy market with the maximum number of nuclear warheads. At the same time, are you sure that then there will be no serious consequences for everyone without exception?”

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Obviously, it is premature to make a hasty bet on the economic collapse of Russia and its allies and the benefits of the West. The third horseman of the Apocalypse is on the rise and he is the most dangerous.

This is hunger!