My First Bear Market - Bear Market Basics

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Are you all enjoying this current bear market capitulation as much as I do? This is the best time to be in crypto, isn´t it? The feeling in your stomach seeing the value of your portfolio dwindle day after day. My once 12K portfolio is now down to 4K and melting.

Maybe it is because I had time to prepare.....a lot of time. I have been looking into this bear market for months. At first, I thought that the realized price would be a pretty good bottom for this market hence 21-23K.

But looking deeper into this crypto winter I soon figured out that every cycle showed exactly the same pattern a 15-20X from bottom to top and then an 80% drop.

Then I thought we did not do a 20X this cycle, but diving even deeper showed me that we did do 20X this cycle and that we did a lot more x´s in the previous cycles.

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But the main thing is that the 80% drop from the bottom to the top is something that happened every cycle so far.

Crypto Weather Forecast - BTC did do a 20X this cycle

So-Called Experts

Now there are these guys called experts that have their opinion on this issue, but the general opinion is that how broader the adoption is the lower the peaks and drops will be.

Now that might be true, but we already dropped 70% so we are already so close to that 80%.

This is my first Bear Market but I did my research. Months ago I was called crazy for thinking 20K would be feasible. It happened and only required an 18K drop. Now at 20K we only need a 6K drop to reach that 80%. 6K, we dropped over 6K in 2 days this week. So 6K is peanuts, or cashews if you like those better.

I was prepared, but why were companies such as Celsius not prepared? I am not an expert, but they have a lousy risk mgmt if they were not able to see this risk. If a noob like me sees this coming....why not people that get paid 10X?

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These are basic Bear Market Basics......

MicroStrategy seems to do a better job:

Dismissing the margin call speculation, Michael Saylor is dismissing any margin call speculations as long as the loan-to-value ratio stays below 50%. He pointed to a previous tweet, which suggested that a margin call could only take place if the BTC price fell below $3,562.

Now Michael is a magnet for positivity so I will take some salt with his tweet, but I think that their risk management is in place at least expecting that 12-14K bottom.

Bear Market Basics

Any company that did not see this coming is not worth your crypto. But on the positive side think about the prices in March 2025.

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Think about the stories we can tell the new joiners during the next bull run....we will be such o.g.´s.

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Buying stocks at the start of the bear market provides you with a 22% profit in 12 months on average. Imagine what that would mean for crypto!

The bear market blues is all about investing wisely. Especially during these tumultuous times you should DCA spot buyings on the way down. No leverage, no longs, no shorts just wait taking risks till we bottom out. At this rate that will take 2-6 weeks max.

Now let me give you my little non-financial advice:

I am holding off on everything but BTC. Nothing will rocket till we bottom out unless BTC rockets first.

ETH entries are set as from $888.

UTK is holding up way too good I could use some down on that one, buying when it goes below 9 cents.

On my to-buy list when we bottom out: ADA, XRP (just for making the profit, not a fan baby) GLMR, and BRISE.

Cheers Bears you will make me rich in 2025.
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Let me know what is on your to-buy list and I love to hear When and Why to buy?

Have a lovely day, remember that hitting the like button is one of the few free things in life, and hope to see you tomorrow.

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Posted Using LeoFinance Beta



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9 comments
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stay in stable coins 🪙 and never give up

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I bought some BRISE a while ago. It has been sitting in a liquidity pool earning me next to nothing last I checked. I don't really understand all of this. I just keep blogging away and doing my thing...

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

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BRISE is one of those low cap projects that has a very good chance to do an enormous jump as soon as the bulls are showing their snouts .....it´s something I try to buy once we hit that bottom but I expect no huge run in the next 12months !CTP

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I couldn't even tell you how much spent on it. I wouldn't know if I was underwater or not. I just know I have a couple million or billion tokens. Something like that :) the price was so low!

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Hold it for 3-4 years based on my research this one could go far,just forget about it for a while 😉 !CTP

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It's locked in the staking protocol for a couple more months. Funny thing is people keep saying "wait three or four years"
Then you get there and they say "wait three or four years"... I'm going to be too old to enjoy it or dead when it finally gets here!

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Hahaha, well I probably gonna say it just once I have become a firm believer of the 4-year crypto cycle. So I will tell you to sell in 3.5 years and enjoy your little extra pension !CTP

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