Predictions and Promises in the Cryptosphere... and Reality Checks!

I sometimes get taken to task for playing Devil's Advocate when it comes to poking at the "sacred cows" of emerging industries, whether that be the Internet, Blockchain/Cryptocurrency, NFTs or whatever the "hot" flavor of the moment might be.

So let's start by keeping in mind that opinion is just that... and shouldn't be confused with fact.

With That Said...

It's always funny to me when I see people make some wild variety of price predictions for cryptocurrencies or for specific stocks in the legacy investment markets.

Whenever I see something like that — specifically when it involves an asset I am watching or invested in — I enjoy drilling down inside these claims to see whether the information on the table is merely hype and guesswork or there actually is something deeper, below it.

For example, every now and then I see wild claims about $1,000,000 Bitcoin, and even here on Hive I see people periodically talking about $100 Hive or $20 Hive… but what is that based on, exactly?

Wishes and dreams and Unicorn sprinkles? Or is there something more substantial?

I'll be the first to agree that the cryptosphere is pretty much like the wild Wild West… an analogy that gets used quite often… but I also believe we are gradually reaching a point where the hype is being sorted out from the fundamentals that will last in the long term.

Another piece of jargon I see thrown around a lot these days is ”Web3,” and a lot of times it's being used as deflective hyperbola than as a phrase with substance.

”This explosive growth in (insert magic phrase here) is going to happen because Web3!”

Thank you, that's nice… but aren't you assuming that the entire world is as much of a fanboy/fangirl as YOU are?

Of course I'm as much a fan of the promise of Web3 as the next person, but I'm also a fan of remembering that we're dealing with human nature here not just theoretical magic potions. A few years ago, everybody was talking about "blockchain this" and "blockchain that," while blithely forgetting that blockchain may solve some problems, but it doesn't exempt us from the vagaries of human nature; these days it seems like Web3 is being bandied about with the same abandon, again forgetting that we're ultimately dealing with human nature here.

So what am I really getting at here?

People tend to be driven by their psychological motivations. We have real or perceived needs and we act according to them. It's all well and good to say things like "Hive's going to be $100," but that is entirely contingent on — from where we're sitting today — demand for Hive vastly outstripping the supply of Hive for an extended period of time.

Which means we get back to the fundamental economics of demand and supply. And when we get back to that, we also have to look at the psychology of demand and supply.

One of the most fragile reasons for being involved in something tends to be "because I can make money." If I buy 100 Hive with the expectation that it's going to go up 20% so I can make money, that means when it's gone up 20% I'm likely to go from being a HODLer to being a seller. And then I'm going to take profits and go buy pizza or champagne or something… with Fiat, not with Hive.

So when we talk about our $100 Hive and want to add a context that is not pure pie-in-the-sky we have to look at what creates demand for Hive; actual lasting demand... not just transient demand.

For example you have to have some Hive in order to use something — an app — that you really want to use that requires you to have some Hive in order for it to work. Consider Splinterlands. Consider something like a successful peer-to-peer marketplace based on Hive where vendors and buyers alike have to have a certain amount of Hive in order to have enough resource credits to complete many many transactions. That's especially true on the vendor side.

What's my point?

Well, Hive sure as shit isn't going to go to $100 because somebody comes in and says that "the behaviour in the price of Hive right now is the same as the three green candles that happened on August 11th, 2021." Not to disrespect the TA folks, but green candles and technical analysis is not a reason to own something; it's that "transient demand" I mentioned before... it has no lasting value, it is simply the fuel for the end eternal pumps and dumps we see around here.

It's not a reason to invest in anything. In the legacy financial markets we called it "churning."

We just see eternal cycling through the underlying asset without even knowing the underlying asset, nor caring what the underlying asset is for or does. It actually does little to nothing in terms of securing the actual growth of the underlying asset in the long term except maybe provide a marginal degree of liquidity from time to time.

I can assure you those folks who suddenly trade $500 million with of Hive in an afternoon don't actually care about Hive. If it were profitable, they'd be trading tacos. Or kitty litter.

So what IS going to get us to $100 Hive?

From where I'm sitting, I would say what it's going to take is about 10-15 years and building 100+ successful projects in the style of Splinterlands and LeoFinance, all of which draw not purely on an *internal-to-Hive clientele, but a clientele that is external to Hive.

Oh wait! Does that suddenly start to look a lot like actual work rather than money for nothing?

As I write those words I can already sense those out there saying "well, you just don't understand web 3.0!" Well, I guess I just don't understand how Unicorn dust works, either!

But I'd like to. Because unicorns are cool!

Thanks for stopping by and reading, and let the fire bombs fly!

Comments, feedback and other interaction is invited and welcomed! Because — after all — SOCIAL content is about interacting, right? Leave a comment — share your experiences — be part of the conversation! I do my best to answer comments, even if it sometimes takes a few days!

---

Greetings bloggers and social content creators! This article was created via PeakD, a blogging application that's part of the Hive Social Content Experience. If you're a blogger, writer, poet, artist, vlogger, musician or other creative content wizard, come join us! Hive is a little "different" because it's not run by a "company;" it operates via the consensus of its users and your content can't be banned, censored, taken down or demonetized. And that COUNTS for something, in these uncertain times! So if you're ready for the next generation of social content where YOU retain ownership and control, come by and learn about Hive and make an account!

Proud member of the Silver Bloggers Community on Hive!

(As usual, all text and images by the author, unless otherwise credited. This is original content, created expressly and uniquely for this platform — NOT cross posted anywhere else!)
Created at 2023-03.03 01:26 PST
0758/2013