$35,000, Fair Value or a Bargain?

$35,000 Bitcoin reminds me of $6,000 Bitcoin. The three most important phases of Bitcoin's price action where we had a $6K Bitcoin were back in late 2017, when no one knew how high will it go and we were definitely in the euphoria phase of the cycle, second instance was in 2018 sometime during the mid phase of the bear market and the third was right after it recovered from the March 2020 black swan.

Why are these relevant? At least imo, until the 2020 halving, that was the fair price for Bitcoin. As far as I can remember at around $6,000 was the average mining cost for one Bitcoin before the last halving. Anything under $6,000 was considered a bargain and the market has proved that with the buying pressure that took the price to higher levels, while anything way over $6,000, like in summer of 2019 has been a good trade.

Bitcoin miners are no longer receiving 12.5 BTC for every block mined, thus the incentive to sell no matter what is hard to digest. I honestly haven't checked how much does it cost on average to mine one Bitcoin but I have a feeling we're talking something like over $10,000. Taking the crackdown on crypto mining from China in consideration and the fact that some miners will relocate that will add to the costs.

We currently have Bitcoin somehow floating at $35,000. $30,000 has been a tremendous support proven in the past few attempts of the bears to drag the price under that level and hold it there, thus looks like $30,000 is considered a good buying level especially for financial institutions and not much by retail. If checking the news and data shared by all sort of outlets recently it seems that retail is not that heavy involved in buying right now.

I get them, Bitcoin looks juicer at $60k for a 2x to $120k than it is at $35,000 for the same trade target.

The main question of this #askleo post is: $35,000, Fair Value or a Bargain? I'd say it's bargain and my reasoning for that is the fact that I strongly believe the bull market is not over(every piece of FUD and despair in the market strengthening my reasoning). Considering that we have slim chances to see BTC at around $10,000, which is probably too close to the costs of mining one Bitcoin, but we have decent chances to have at least $60,000 Bitcoin if not a over $100,000 one, then it's a bargain.

The sentiment around retail right now is more than bearish and that's a good sign, because often times the market does the opposite of what the retail is expecting to do. A few months back retail was already seeing a $100k Bitcoin and we got back to $30,000 and now we already have plenty of cases for a bear market, actually a multi year one.

Traders might not see this from my perspective as they're into charts and short term price action, but for someone who plans on staying in crypto longer than a year or so, who's involved in crypto projects and DeFi, then the price doesn't even matter. On extended time frames it has only gone up. My take is that it will do as such for the next few months as well, until we enter a bear market. I also consider $35,000 to be a bargain for Bitcoin right now.

What do you think?

Thanks for attention,
Adrian

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