RE: Winters are supposed to last for 3 months...not 3 years...
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Two days ago I was talking with a good friend of mine who introduced me to crypto about XMR, ZEC, DASH and some other ones in the OG category that are still a bargain, but also managed to recover well from the March crash.
I subscribe to what @edicted is forecasting and I am doing that based on previous halving cycles and how long it took BTC to get to new peaks after every halving, which is around 500 days.
I assume $20k will be conquered this month and once BTC does we'll gonna witness volatility at the level of thousands of dollars not tens or hundreds. That's when the show really begins.
What you could learn from your mistake with STEEM is to not get into any project when there's euphoria around it and extreme greed... and people act like a cult refusing to see the reality and rather fantasizing about what could come.
That's the way I see it and follow the good old rotchsild's advice: buy when there's blood on the street and sell when others are greedy.
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I fully agree about BTC cycles. Yet the only example we have about how alts behave was in 2017/18 because there were no alts in 2012/13...well there were but only a few...
So we are speculating too. BTC might do what we are all expecting it will but nobody can guarantee that alts will perform the same this time. Maybe they will...maybe not...
As for buying when there's blood on the streets...everyone knows that...but only a few live by that rule ;)
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The alt market is going to be super weird this time around. The next mega-bull run will clearly be fueled by institutional adoption. The vast majority of these institutions aren't going to want anything to do with altcoins.
This creates an awkward situation of hoping that either institutions will change their minds about altcoins (not likely) or Bitcoin retail holders with inflated bags will diversify to alts.
Considering all the money at stake and how small the market caps are of altcoins, we should get a nice run up no matter what, but we might not see those crazy x100 run ups this time around because the money coming in will likely stay in Bitcoin.
It also creates another interesting scenario where Bitcoin is being coopted by corporations, so all the Bitcoin holders who see that as a threat and a disadvantage may move to alts on purpose.