What Do You Call a "Dying Pattern"?
If there's one thing that humans always craved after that is definitely certainty. I guess that's why we have engineers and doctors. These types of individuals give us certainty, to some extent, but often times is uncertainty that gives birth to some of the most glorious opportunities.
The best things that happened in my life have occurred during uncertain times, when the ship was simply sailing through the fog and over the waves. You simply know you're getting somewhere, but you don't know exactly where, how the place is going to look like, how long it will take and how exactly the trip will be.
One of the best teachers in this regard has been my grandpa. Being a beekeeper for his entire life he had to embrace uncertainty. You never know how a year will be when spring commences. Nobody knows if there's gonna be too rainy or not, or how much pollen the bees will have available to collect to make that sweet honey that your living depends upon.
Being involved in this boat cruises business every summer for the past three years, I've noticed a pattern. Most of the ones having similar businesses tend to project a year ahead what's to come based on the past one. WRONG. No year will be similar with the previous one.
Everybody was expecting 2020 to be a shitty year due to covid and instead it was quite a blast. We only had about three full months of business, but thanks to traveling restrictions most people got stuck in this shitty country and had to travel inside the borders.
Now... the majority has expected 2021 to be at least as good as 2020 was. Quite a few have based their projections on potential new restrictions that would keep tourists hostile to Romania one more year and what do you know... many are getting to Greece, Croatia and whatever other countries they feel like.
The majority has been wrong and it always is wrong. Same principle applies to crypto as well and you've probably noticed the pattern as well. What happens when patterns become obsolete? A new pattern is created.
I watched a video of Datadash last night and the man was saying at a point that according to his analysis this cycle might be elongated and the blow off top following a parabolic run like in December 2017 might occur actually in November 2022, and not by the end of 2021 as some expect.
Quite a few analysts are comparing this cycle with the 2017 one and the 2013 one as well, but it might actually be totally different, it could be longer, the correction could hold the prices in a narrow range for months to come until Bitcoin and the whole cryptocurrency market will proceed in continuing its after the halving extended rally.
That might happen, no one knows for sure, but humans definitely love certainty and that often times proves to be disappointing. What if our projections of a 2013 or 2017 similar bull market might be wrong? Well, no problem, we'll just have to embrace uncertainty and hold tight.
Personally, I do not believe the bull market is over and that we're entering any multiple year bear market, but I don't know if this one will replicate any previous one. There are whole different metrics we should take into consideration that could lead to a super cycle and an elongation of previous patterns. That can definitely happen.
Meanwhile, embrace uncertainty and build up your portfolio. Just don't sell, it might be too soon... Have a great weekend folks and see you to the next one.
Thanks for attention,
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta