Game Over?

Yesterday BTC price touched $19499, being only $166-some short of the 2017 ATH. In several hours it dumped like 12% to $17170. People say "WTF???!"

The market analysts rushed to bake their explanations. Coinbase closed marginal trading (and the traders have to unwind their leveraged longs). The whales moved shitloads of BTC to exchanges (presumably in order to sell it all at $19665.39). It's simply a "long-awaited pullback". At least, that's what I see in the news this morning.

It may be true. Or may be not. I don't know. After all, there's no reason why BTC can't dump. Being an absolutely speculative vehicle with an implied price of exactly $0.0, it costs exactly what people at the moment think it must cost. The most important thing is what is next.

At the moment BTC continues to slide down, the sell-off goes on. The bears are shorting, leveraged longs get liquidated, quite a few small shrimps probably do panic sells. At the moment I'm watching BTC below 17K.

A couple of days ago I made an article, a kind of "price prediction".

Personally, I still believe that in the coming weeks the big guys will try to push BTC to new ATH. Probably it will not be easy, because close to 19665.39 too many smarty guys will try to short it like hell. Besides, retail hodlers who missed to sell at ATH in 2017, will probably want to take revenge for their three years full of pain.

So why would the big guys want to push BTC to new ATHs instead of selling it all right now? Because they've already stuffed their leveraged bags with BTC at 10K or 12K or maybe even at 5K and they would want retail FOMO run to sell it all off without dumping the price. The big guys don't play against each other (not because of friendship, but because it's more profitable for them to cooperate), they play against casual "investors" who make investments in between jerking off, as one smart guy put it. A real retail FOMO needs good hype, and a new ATH is a good reason to start a decent hype outside the crypto community.

Anyway, personally, I wouldn't be surprised to see BTC somewhere around 15K in the coming hours or days. But only to see it being pushed to a new ATH once again in the coming weeks and the current dump being labeled as "the last chance to buy BTC cheap". The funny thing is that it might well be "the last chance" before new ATHs (and the subsequent dump).

That's a simple conspiracy theory I love to see.

However, personally, I wouldn't buy any crypto right now, until the dust completely settles.

Posted Using LeoFinance ^Beta