For almost two weeks I was on my New Year's vacation. I'd been traveled the areas though relatively civilized but remote enough to forget about Bitcoin and all crypto shit. And when I was back, I learned that I'd missed a Big Pump, and now I'm pretty much missing a Big Dump...
It seems everything was just fine until the last Saturday. BTC was making another ATH at about $42K, Mr. Musk was twitting about Bitcoin again, Mr. Trump continued to play his muppet show, Mr. Biden's guys were preparing to print more dollars, and the analysts were quoting BTC at $100K, $200K and beyond.
Only Mr. Saylor of Grayscale seems strangely quiet about new purchases. What the heck?! The fund has run out of money? They don't want to buy "at any price" anymore??
As far as I could understand, many were waiting for a dump. Because "the price can't go parabolic", "a healthy correction is necessary for the next rally", and so on. But why, actually? Why it managed to go parabolic to $40K, and not to $50k, and didn't dump at $35K? Why a correction is "necessary" if someone is ready to constantly buy tons of shit with a shrinking free float at any price?
Anyway, this Sunday dump looks rather unusual, as though someone wanted to drive prices down at a shallow market. Normally, if you want to dump your stack and fix your profit, you'd rather do it at a thick market full of buyers. Selling at a thin market looks more like stop hunting to buy the stuff cheaper and to outrun the other guys who will come buying on Monday. Or like an attempt to outrun the other guys if you know that on Monday the other guys will start dumping too.
Well, as far as I can see, currently the dips are bought back pretty quickly but the price continues to fall for the third day in a row. And currently, I prefer to stand on the sideline and watch.
Today I'd want to make some BTC price prediction, just for fun, as a wild gambling guess. This week I'd expect to see BTC at about $30K. At the weekend I'd expect a small rally, then the following week a spurt to $50K -- and then another big dump to I don't know where. I have some reasons for this statement, but I don't want to go into details at the moment. Let's simply consider it as a bet for now.
BTC is at $36K at the moment.
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