Finance Is Conjectural

in LeoFinance23 days ago

Hey Jessintellecutals

The more I learn about finance, the more I realise how conjectural it is in nature. I feel we live in a world of so many absolutists and too few sceptics. I blame the parrot style education system we all have to go through, where we are trained to read and regurgitate "facts" and other popular tropes as if they are unquestionable.

We're never taught to question the nature of our reality, our reality becomes crystalised, and few take the time to review the rules and think, but this doesn't make sense. You can see it in many facets of life, so why not in finance?

I often talk about finding value in the market, but the value is subjective and changes from person to person, so what you value or what you find valuable can differ from me. It's why NFT's while fundamentally useless, trade for millions, the same with pokemon cards, art and designer clothing.

There is no fundamental value; there is only the perception of value from a group of people and the allocated purchasing power those people have at their disposal.

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Bitcoin challenging how money works

I NEVER gave a second thought to the way money works until I got into Bitcoin. I had a feeling something was wrong but could never articulate it. I could never understand the open acceptance that money has to lose value and that investing was the only way to stay ahead.

It never made sense; why would I work so hard to get this thing only to give it to someone else to be able to give me more value? Why do I get punished for keeping it?

For many, this isn't something they think about, realise and simply accept, as, in the parrot nature, we learn everything.

  • If we look at bond markets, there was a time when the words negative interest rates was a laughable idea; now we're doing it.
  • If we look at equities, there was a time when trading at 1000 times earnings was laughable; no, we're doing it.
  • There was a time when 80% - 130% debt to GDP was unthinkable, and yet we are doing it now in many countries.

The rules are changing; the game is NOT factual; in fact, it's being rewritten as we speak.

Breaking through the noise

I listen to ALOT of financial content, and the more I learn, the more I see how full of shit these people are and how the system rewards them for being full of shit. I listen to the rules of the game, how it is played, but I don't see them as absolute rules that cannot be broken.

Finance is NOT a set science. It's a narrative-driven dog and pony show, and the sooner you accept it, the sooner it becomes easier to understand.

Divided resources

By hook or by crook, money is allocated to different people in the economy; over time, certain people accumulate more than others. It's by no means a fair system; there is no fair system; the system works the way it works. Is Bitcoin a fair system? No, but it's fair in that we all force the same rules on everyone.

But we bring the variables; we bring the time you got in our the amount of old-world capital you have to allocate to the asset class, we bring the variables to Bitcoin. Bitcoin doesn't;t change; you change around it.

Now, if money doesn't change and is a one-trick pony, it brings with it a unique problem for people that it rewards the prudent person. Over time, the HODL'r who simply accumulated will do far better than those moving in and out of the asset class.

However, we all have different time preferences and needs, and we make decisions based on these variables.

What you as an individual needs to do is pick a game you like, learn the rules of that game, see how the rules are enforced or can be broken, and then and only then do you decide to put a dime of your money into this game.

You don't do into a game of soccer without knowing you can't pick up the ball and run with it, so why do you do it in finance?

Have your say

What do you good people of HIVE think?

So have at it, my Jessies! If you don't have something to comment, "I am a Jessie."

Let's connect

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Watching a video or two of Wences Casares, just found out about him, he's a cool dude, i like how he thinks.

Thanks for the recommendation I’m always keen to learn more will give it a look see when I get a chance

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Sticking to your point of NFTs, I actually think a lot of it has to do with people not knowing what to do with disposable income. Given the fees over on ETH it is amazing that people are still continuing to buy stuff over there. Is a specific piece of art really worth millions of dollars? Maybe... I think what is really happening is people bought ETH at like $10 and suddenly it is over $2000. They have all this money just burning a hole in their wallet and they decide to blow it on stuff that might not be valuable to other people. It's kind of a mentality with crypto that when you get a big win you are already looking for the next thing to throw some tokens at.

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I completely agree with you, its all a short term preference mindset that we brought over from fiat and now that we have a new tool, we applying some of those bad habits to this tool, that's why I always say a fiat mindset in crypto won't solve your money problems.

I see it in the junk we eat, we buy, why people will send money on onlyfans accounts its crazy, the money means nothing anymore so we will try to get anything out of it and ascribe value to the strangest things.

Reading the death of money its like so clear that we repeating many of the same mistakes and symptoms of a failing currency like we saw in Wiemar Germany and even during the fall of Rome, the similarities are striking

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Wow, that is a bit scary to even think about. Thankfully I have at least one foot in the "new world"!

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Its actually really funny, in reality fiat loses value real fast but this isn't what we can actually say about about crypto. You can't still believe that there are a lot of people who question the prospects of bitcoin it still feels unreal to them.

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I understand it’s unreal it took me years to get the hang of it and I’m still learning people see prices in their frame of mind because they think on in fiat going up and down and it’s hard to break that frame of thinking

I don’t even think many will get there but the few that do will have the largest stack of Bitcoin! Altcoiners and shitcoiners are into Bitcoin too, they just want your Bitcoin by selling you there token

I see a lot of people in crypto thinking Bitcoin is too obvious or boring they think the solution needs to be more tech to me that’s like saying the solution means more money printing!

Sometimes simple is what we need! Look at ETH they’ve been hard forking that chain like crazy and yet it’s not even close to Bitcoin

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I don’t even think many will get there but the few that do will have the largest stack of Bitcoin!

This is somewhat scary, imagine a few people controlling that huge chunk of wealth, it's a plausible reality because many wouldn't get the hang of it like you said.

Sorry for the late reply.

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You're right, getting into BTC really changed the way I see money now. It's like the "price action" of the asset is considered "volatile" whereas I see Bitcoin as stable and the fiat is volatile. 10k sats is still 10k sats and I'm not going to move out of the asset if I can help it!

Exactly and i have a guarantee that anyone who comes in after me needs to spend a fair bit to get as many Sats as I have now! No one at the top is going to print a bunch of Sats out of thin air and push me down the ladder

I wonder what full dilution will be like for us since we won’t be around in 2140 when the last one is mined and I’m sure a bunch more bItcoin will be lost over the next few decades so I feel like 1 coin could even be more than enough but who wants just 100 million Sats when you can have 500 million

Every day I thank the person who says I have low time preference I’m getting rid of this Bitcoin on the cheap and allow me to grow my stack!

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No one at the top is going to print a bunch of Sats out of thin air and push me down the ladder

I love that! Something that a lot don't understand the importance of the devaluation of your cash!

Lol, why 500 million when you can have a billion! You can be a satillionaire!

Its because everyone tends to follow the crowd and that is why they usually end up losing quite badly. Its all about perspective and doing your own research. Those NFT selling for millions might just end up as a few dollars given that everything is in the development/experimental stage.

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Yeah there’s a thing about safety in numbers that we fall for so if enough people do something it simply feels legit and it becomes hard to be the contrarian even when you feel something just isn’t right

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The work of many goes to feed the few.
It is strange like you say that people don't question the structure and parents really try to indoctrinate their kids into just following along the same path.

It's an interesting structure out there and most people don't realize they are never really getting ahead.

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I think so too, the world has changed and what worked for the previous generation isn't going to work for this one, and a lot of people have not realised that and are still pressing their kids to take the path they took only for them to end up failing and then people are like well I did it why cant you you must be lazy?

Boomers and Gen X's are setting their kids up to fail, and that's why we have this forth turning with crypto at the forefront of the change

Exactly..... for whatever reason the previous generations always act like people today are lazy but oftentimes they confuse going to a job and getting bossed around with getting work done. They are all about being physically present to have someone else to give you instructions.

Then if you ask if Elon Musk has ever had a job they will say that is different.... He is Elon Musk...etc.

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All we have to do is stand up and the game is broken. In my humble opinion, crypto is helping us do it. Sadly, there are too many copycats and too few critical thinkers. A great read!

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I agree, I do think there’s merit in some of what’s going on in Alts but the vast majority is rubbish and a waste of resources that could be put into better projects

But the idea of getting something for nothing is so strong people would rather spin up a scam to get rich than build something real

Crypto isn’t just about the tech it’s about the mindset the beliefs and the want to change! Yes getting rich and having resources is important if you want to change things I get that but we need to use it to educate more people and give them a chance to participate too!

I’ve orange pilled a few people already and is great to watch them on their Bitcoin journey

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thank you very much for sharing information about the blockchain,have a great day and have a great mood

Thank you and you too! Keep learning about blockchain it’s only going to lead to good things

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