Half Way Into The Bull Run, The Unit Bias Trades Are Running
Hey Jessinvestors
Warning a massive amount of thumbsucking and generalising ahead.
I've been in cryptocurrency since 2016, it's not that long in human years, but in HODL years, it's a lifetime of experience. I've gone through a full bear and bull and bear run, so I'd like to think I am more prepared than before. I'd also like to think I am better equipped than many traders in this market for the first time.
Over the last 5 years, I've won and lost money in fiat terms like you wouldn't believe. Stomaching losses of 80% is always harder when the unit number in fiat is larger.
After these past few years, I've become desensitized and less emotive; I have learned a lot and am more systematic in buying and positioning.
Do I take a flyer on a shit coin here and there? Absolutely, but this is well within my risk-reward ratio, which I refuse to break. I preach Bitcoin, but I am no maxi; I think it is still the best version of cryptocurrency to date, but I am not opposed to seeing what else is out there and scoring me more BTC in the future.
Perhaps I'm a Semi-maxi, lol, if there's such a thing!
Looking at the data
We've been enjoying quite the bull run from the BTC floor of $3000 after the crash down from $20 000, and man, what an amazing ride it's been since the halving. If we overlay the previous halvings date ranges and look at BTC on-chain data of how many wallets are pulling into cold storage, it's still very bullish.
So I am going to assume that if that doesn't revert, that we're halfway through the bull run. The problem with being halfway is the second half is exponentially more violent in its dips and rips. If it plays out as it has previously, we will eventually have an altcoin season that will mint more millionaires than ever before.
This part of the bull run is where you need to keep your greed in check and try to roll out of positions as best you can without spooking the market and enjoy some of those profits.
Beginners luck or do I suck?
One of my personal key indicators of a frothy market is who is buying. I am starting to see many crypto haters starting to get in; the gains are too good, and people think it will continue like this forever and FOMO in. As one friend makes gains, so it provides social proof that you can do it too. Suckering in a host of unsophisticated retail investors who buy and sell at the spot price.
I've had people who I would never imagine ask me about crypto, and they're buying in on all sorts of coins without knowing the risk they are taking. Some have even outperformed my trades, and I'm supposed to be the one taking this thing seriously lol, man wtf am I doing with my life?
Remember I mentioned coins are still getting clawed off exchanges? As retail gets in, they tend not to move off exchanges, and as that builds up, I will start to worry.
As soon as that reverts and speculators start to hold bags ready to dump, then I think we'll start to turn net sellers, but for now, exchange liquidity continues to drain.
Unit bias buyers are taking aim
Bitcoin has become a serious mans buy, you can see it in how quickly the dips are gobbled up, and as the price keeps moving up, people feel "priced out" of Bitcoin. This is where altcoins thrive; the unit bias kicks in; we can already see that with shitcoins like XRP and Doge getting pumped 500% and 22 000% in the last year. If a coin is close to a dollar, under $10, people will buy the fuck out of it.
Since no one gives a shit about issuance rate, market cap, circulating supply, all they see is the unit price as a factor on if it's cheap or expensive. You're going to see over the next few months anything under $10 get pumped the sky-high.
People will feel priced out of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and even BNB as it crosses the $1 000, and the low-value altcoins will be where all the speculation drives.
Institutions will continue to pick up Bitcoin and ETH, and this pressure will force retail into more unit bias trades. As these unit bias trades move up, it provides a positive reinforcement loop that can continue running for some time.
If you don't believe that the market is that stupid and people will figure out something is overpriced, then you only have to look as far as Tesla. They did a stock split, and as soon as the new share price was seen as lower in fiat terms, people gobbled it up even though the stock was considerably overbought before the stock split.
The unit bias bull market is starting to pick up, so hold on to your coins this is going to be a hell of a year.
Have your say
What do you good people of HIVE think?
So have at it, my Jessies! If you don't have something to comment, "I am a Jessie."
Let's connect
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Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
Why do you think it's halfway through the bull-run? Nobody really knows.
I was looking at the charts overlayed with 2013 and 2017 for both the price tracking and wallet creation and it's tracking pretty similar, if we don't get a super cycle then I'd say we've reached the midway point based on those metrics
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
Well I don't think taking profits is a bad idea. The price tends to turn away many small investors who think about buying whole amounts of a token and it also gets harder for the price to pump. But eventually either people stick it out with diamond hands or sell out. Its a common market cycle. But if you can free up some cash for the dip and get some extra profits, I see no reason not to.
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Yeah I'm not too concerned with the super cycle since I never sell my BTC if I miss out on gains in alts that's fine as long as I've secured my principle back and a healthy stack to start to rebuild over the next cycle. I know this is a long term play for me and I am not trying to get greedy and milk the last few percentage points
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Hey, what's your plan then?
Taking out my principle, plus whatever I can get tax free, spinning off the rest into Bitcoin and consolidating. Then dropping a percentage of my BTC into an interest account while the stable coins I used to take profits will also be placed in various interest accounts.
Then take that interest payments and stack them up to go and pick up staking coins once they're good and cheap again or take some positions in de-fi
Should take me around 6-8 months to unroll everything so plenty of work ahead
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Woohoo 6-8 months... Okay, illustration be patient. Hehe... I already diversified my investments and the other one is earning pretty good, more than what I would earn as general Doctor in the Philippines so maybe it should just start chillin? Lol
Am even thinking of a good business that would give job opportunities for the in my hometown, plus the labor pay in the Philippines is so cheap especially in the province. There are so many ideas in my head but I hate the double taxes rule unless it's a sole proprietorship.
Any suggestions?
Well if you want to start a business I think what you can do is once you have 3 months of cash flow approach the bank for a loan and then keep the loan on your books for that financial year so you can use it as a right off against your tax. You can also do things like acquiring assets, be it stock, machinery, property, even Bitcoin for your business as part of operating expenses, to reduce your income.
I don;t know what the rules are in the Phillippines are so you may have to consult a tax professional. I think its admirable that you want to start a business and create jobs, that's awesome.
I was about to ask the same question. 😂
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
Haha, then that's for the both of us 😁
!ENGAGE 10
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ENGAGEtokens.Well r/wallstreetbets is now deep in crypto for better or worse thanks to Robin Hood. Expecting yolo degen plays especially on the smaller coins.
I am fully with you on that and with these trading platforms, people don't go off-chain they buy and sell in those apps, so they are an endless source of arbitrage for experienced traders, they'll be gobbling up doge for exaaple and robinhood will need to buy it from other exchanges where we can dump at premium
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I won't be taking profits because if I do I don't know what to do with them. 😂 I don't feel confident enough to move them into something else.
My focus is on making what I have work for me and I'm only just starting to get together the information for that, whilst dollar cost averaging into bitcoin.
My longish term plan is to take out the earnings to fiat every year at amount just below the tax threshold. I have no idea at this point how realistic that is at present.
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
LOL If you're in a position where it doesn't matter to take it out by all means keep stacking for the long run I think you'll beat out a lot of traders that way too.
I just want to be able to set myself up for the next bear market to be honest, so if I have a few tax free dollars sitting in a kitty after this once we correct I can buy up some staking coins or get into DE-fI where i get more than stable coin interest and run it from there again for the next 4 years and rinse and repeat
Thats on condition we don't get a super cycle though
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Yeah I love bull run but I love bear market more because then you get to buy more and see strong crypto
I am also a bear market fan, it just makes it easier to track where you are and focus on consistent profit taking then making these fomo based decisions
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Price tend to scare small investors but if they are only interested in units they can always invest in satoshi. We call. It it’s smaller unit of BTC only but this satisfies the need to put a whole unit rather than a portion of it.
It’s matter if making people aware of.
Though in know that whole unit does not matter as the Profit is proportional to the investment.
I think the satoshi is not well known or people just don’t want it or realise the utility of a satoshi yet and that’s why alt coins are so popular with retail it’s easy to think 1 dollar gets me 10 or 100 of this coin kinda thing it’s similar to stocks or so people think
Happy for everyone to take their own journey and I’ll stick to picking up these Sats
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
Really nice speculation but how is xrp a shit coin? I could take some to be a shitcoin but not xrp
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How is XRP not a shit coin according to you?
To me it's centralised, it's basically a database more than a blockchain, they can mint as much as they want, they actively change the issuance all the time, and they constantly dumping into pumps and then buying back and "burning" it. lol what a joke of a coin that was premined and handed out to institutions pretty much exactly like fiat is used.
Its entire business model revolves around institutional settlement but liquid BTC can do exactly that and already as synthetic assets like stable coins making it better than XRP in my opinion
There's also no incentive system for validators so there's a greater financial incentive to mess with supply and issuance
To me, there is no real future for XRP except for the short-term extortion of speculators.
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
such an interesting post! I also think that we are about halfway through the bull market... sometimes I can hardly imagine it and think that we are already at the end, because many of my friends have reinvested in the last 2 months, who were absolutely not interested in crypto before... and they are absolutely sure that they won't make any losses...
and yes that's absolutely true about the "cheap" coins... coins that are worth several hundred or thousand dollars are worth nothing ;)))))) tesla is an interesting example!
you can already see it with etheremu classic... people think it is the cheaper etherum lol