Some solid results in week 5 as my 2 main positions ( 1st half Under in Zulte-Waregem vs Charleroi & Beerschot +0.5 ) ended up in clear winners. I'm back in the green on the season but I can't help but feel somewhat disappointed as my handicapping has been pretty good while I failed to really capitalize on it since I've been way too cautious in my stakes since I do have quite some self-doubt. If you are in betting and the Asian handicaps that have higher limits for a long time, you really learn to respect the market because you fundamentally know it the edges are quite thin.
Doing some analysis it shows that I corner bets so far cost me quite some (-22.09% ROI on 41 Bets, 17W-21L so mostly some bigger live bets lost, pre-game corner markets tend to have low limits) while both the pre-game (+13.97% ROI on 34 bets) and live-bets (+5.53% on 84 Bets) are quite profitable. My average stake is also way too low coming in at 0.285 units.
I am tracking the actual performance of the pre-game selections I am sharing in all my preview posts and they have been performing extremely well.
|1||Week 1||Cercle Brugge Team Total under 0.75 @ 1.88||WON||0,880||0,880|
|2||Week 1||Sint-Truiden Team Total Under 1 @ 1.88||LOST||-1,000||-0,120|
|3||Week 1||Zulte-Waregem +0.5 @ 2.04||LOST||-1,000||-1,120|
|4||Week 1||Mechelen vs Anderlecht Under 2.75 @ 1.890||LOST||-1,000||-2,120|
|5||Week 1||Oostende Team Total Under 1.25 @ 1.85||WON||0,425||-1,695|
|6||Week 2||Moeskroen vs Mechelen 1st Half Under 1 @ 2.08||PUSH||0,000||-1,695|
|7||Week 2||Moeskroen vs Mechelen Under 2.75 @ 1.813||WON||0,813||-0,882|
|8||Week 2||AA Gent vs Kortrijk 1st Half Under 1.25 @ 1.89||WON||0,445||-0,437|
|9||Week 2||Antwerp 1st Half -0.25 @ 2.07||WON||1,070||0,633|
|10||Week 2||Antwerp -0.5 @ 1.901||LOST||-1,000||-0,367|
|11||Week 3||Antwero vs AA Gent 1st Half under 1 @ 2.085||PUSH||0,000||-0,367|
|12||Week 3||Racing Genk Corners +0.5 @ 1.97||LOST||-1,000||-1,367|
|13||Week 3||Club Brugge vs Beerschot 1st Half Under 1.25 @ 1.850||WON||0,425||-0,942|
|14||Week 3||Oostende Corners +1.25 @ 1.85||WON||0,850||-0,092|
|15||Week 3||Oostende 1st Half Corners +0.5 @ 1.930||WON||0,930||0,838|
|16||Week 4||Oostende +1 @ 1.725||WON||0,725||1,563|
|17||Week 4||Waasland vs OHL 1st Half Under 1 @ 2.12||PUSH||0,000||1,563|
|18||Week 4||Moeskroen vs Zulte-Waregem 1st Half under 1 @ 2.16||WON||1,160||2,723|
|19||Week 4||Moeskroen vs Zulte-Waregem Under 2.75 @ 1.934||WON||0,934||3,657|
|20||Week 4||Club Brugge 1st Half +0 @ 1.724||WON||0,724||4,381|
|21||Week 4||Beerschot +0.25 @ 1.947||LOST||-1,000||3,381|
|22||Week 4||Charleroi vs Antwerp 1st Half Under 1 @ 1.99||PUSH||0,000||3,381|
|23||Week 4||Antwerp +0.5 @ 1.729||LOST||-1,000||2,381|
|24||Week 5||Oostende 1st Half +0.25 @ 1.869||WON||0,430||2,811|
|25||Week 5||Oostende +0.75 @ 1.821||WON||0,821||3,632|
|26||Week 5||Oostende +1.5 CK @ 1.934||WON||0,934||4,566|
|27||Week 5||Oud-Heverlee Leuven +1 @ 1.81||WON||0,810||5,376|
|28||Week 5||Sint-Truiden Team Total Under 1 @ 2.06||LOST||-1,000||4,376|
|29||Week 5||Stvv +1.5 CK @ 1.80||WON||0,800||5,176|
|30||Week 5||Stvv vs Antwerp Under 10 Corners @ 1.787||WON||0,787||5,963|
|31||Week 5||Zulte vs Charleroi 1st Half Under 1 @ 2.197||WON||1,197||7,160|
|32||Week 5||Zulte vs Charleroi 1st Half Under 0.75 @ 2.71||WON||1,710||8,870|
|33||Week 5||Beerschot +0.5 @ 1.869||WON||0,869||9,739|
|34||Week 5||Beerschot 1st Half +0 @ 2.38||PUSH||0,000||9,739|
The gap is huge though as I only managed to win around 2.5 units from these myself compared to the 9.739 in case I would have taken them all with flat 1 unit stakes. This is due to multiple facts. To start the limits often don't allow me to take the bets at full stake, many of them are multiple bets on similar positions or split stakes and 1 unit in my regular betting currently represents a big bet with full confidence.
Discord / Copytip Live-Bets Season 2020-2021
30/08/2020 Club Brugge -0.25 @ 1.846 (20' 0-0) FT 2-1 Bet WON
22/08/2020 Zulte-Waregem Team Total over 2 @ 1.924 (37' 1-0) FT 4-1 Bet WON
It's great to be back in the green zone and I hope to be able to build on that as I do feel I have quite a good grip on the league at the moment after a difficult start with unusual circumstances. I'm still a bit below what I expect to win over the long run but the season is still very early on and I only have 159 bets in so far. If anything, volume really is key to betting and being able to tell your actual performance. Anyway, I'm very much enjoying the process of watching the matches, handicapping the league and trying to beat these betting markets even after all these years and am looking forward already to the action next 7 days!
Previous Personal Results 2020-2021
Week 05 Results 41 Bets | 23W-14L-04P | Staked 09.880u | +2.590u Profit..
Week 04 Results 39 Bets | 16W-18L-05P | Staked 12.258u | -0.604u Loss..
Week 03 Results 44 Bets | 19W-17L-08P | Staked 11.580u | +2.748u Profit
Week 02 Results 21 Bets | 08W-12L-01P | Staked 05.972u | -1.096u Loss..
Week 01 Results 15 Bets | 04W-10L-01P | Staked 05.618u | -2.724u Loss..
Regular Season 2019-2020 Results 159 Bets | 70W-71L-19P | 45.308 Staked | +0.913u Profit | +2.01% ROI
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