Week 5 Results | 23W-14L-4P | +2.590 Units Profit

in LeoFinancelast month (edited)

This is a weekly overview of my personal handicapping and live betting results on teams from the Belgian Jupiler League with some insights on my overall approach.

Some solid results in week 5 as my 2 main positions ( 1st half Under in Zulte-Waregem vs Charleroi & Beerschot +0.5 ) ended up in clear winners. I'm back in the green on the season but I can't help but feel somewhat disappointed as my handicapping has been pretty good while I failed to really capitalize on it since I've been way too cautious in my stakes since I do have quite some self-doubt. If you are in betting and the Asian handicaps that have higher limits for a long time, you really learn to respect the market because you fundamentally know it the edges are quite thin.

Doing some analysis it shows that I corner bets so far cost me quite some (-22.09% ROI on 41 Bets, 17W-21L so mostly some bigger live bets lost, pre-game corner markets tend to have low limits) while both the pre-game (+13.97% ROI on 34 bets) and live-bets (+5.53% on 84 Bets) are quite profitable. My average stake is also way too low coming in at 0.285 units.

I am tracking the actual performance of the pre-game selections I am sharing in all my preview posts and they have been performing extremely well.

1Week 1Cercle Brugge Team Total under 0.75 @ 1.88WON0,8800,880
2Week 1Sint-Truiden Team Total Under 1 @ 1.88LOST-1,000-0,120
3Week 1Zulte-Waregem +0.5 @ 2.04LOST-1,000-1,120
4Week 1Mechelen vs Anderlecht Under 2.75 @ 1.890LOST-1,000-2,120
5Week 1Oostende Team Total Under 1.25 @ 1.85WON0,425-1,695
6Week 2Moeskroen vs Mechelen 1st Half Under 1 @ 2.08PUSH0,000-1,695
7Week 2Moeskroen vs Mechelen Under 2.75 @ 1.813WON0,813-0,882
8Week 2AA Gent vs Kortrijk 1st Half Under 1.25 @ 1.89WON0,445-0,437
9Week 2Antwerp 1st Half -0.25 @ 2.07WON1,0700,633
10Week 2Antwerp -0.5 @ 1.901LOST-1,000-0,367
11Week 3Antwero vs AA Gent 1st Half under 1 @ 2.085PUSH0,000-0,367
12Week 3Racing Genk Corners +0.5 @ 1.97LOST-1,000-1,367
13Week 3Club Brugge vs Beerschot 1st Half Under 1.25 @ 1.850WON0,425-0,942
14Week 3Oostende Corners +1.25 @ 1.85WON0,850-0,092
15Week 3Oostende 1st Half Corners +0.5 @ 1.930WON0,9300,838
16Week 4Oostende +1 @ 1.725WON0,7251,563
17Week 4Waasland vs OHL 1st Half Under 1 @ 2.12PUSH0,0001,563
18Week 4Moeskroen vs Zulte-Waregem 1st Half under 1 @ 2.16WON1,1602,723
19Week 4Moeskroen vs Zulte-Waregem Under 2.75 @ 1.934WON0,9343,657
20Week 4Club Brugge 1st Half +0 @ 1.724WON0,7244,381
21Week 4Beerschot +0.25 @ 1.947LOST-1,0003,381
22Week 4Charleroi vs Antwerp 1st Half Under 1 @ 1.99PUSH0,0003,381
23Week 4Antwerp +0.5 @ 1.729LOST-1,0002,381
24Week 5Oostende 1st Half +0.25 @ 1.869WON0,4302,811
25Week 5Oostende +0.75 @ 1.821WON0,8213,632
26Week 5Oostende +1.5 CK @ 1.934WON0,9344,566
27Week 5Oud-Heverlee Leuven +1 @ 1.81WON0,8105,376
28Week 5Sint-Truiden Team Total Under 1 @ 2.06LOST-1,0004,376
29Week 5Stvv +1.5 CK @ 1.80WON0,8005,176
30Week 5Stvv vs Antwerp Under 10 Corners @ 1.787WON0,7875,963
31Week 5Zulte vs Charleroi 1st Half Under 1 @ 2.197WON1,1977,160
32Week 5Zulte vs Charleroi 1st Half Under 0.75 @ 2.71WON1,7108,870
33Week 5Beerschot +0.5 @ 1.869WON0,8699,739
34Week 5Beerschot 1st Half +0 @ 2.38PUSH0,0009,739

The gap is huge though as I only managed to win around 2.5 units from these myself compared to the 9.739 in case I would have taken them all with flat 1 unit stakes. This is due to multiple facts. To start the limits often don't allow me to take the bets at full stake, many of them are multiple bets on similar positions or split stakes and 1 unit in my regular betting currently represents a big bet with full confidence.

No official pre-game or Live bets on Copytip or the SBC Discord this week as I always like to see how it goes the first week after an international break. I do continue to share most of the live bets I take on the SBC Discord though and plan on continue doing this as it brings about consistency for myself in the first place and I know at least a couple are watching them.

Discord / Copytip Live-Bets Season 2020-2021

30/08/2020 Club Brugge -0.25 @ 1.846 (20' 0-0) FT 2-1 Bet WON
22/08/2020 Zulte-Waregem Team Total over 2 @ 1.924 (37' 1-0) FT 4-1 Bet WON

I take all my Live bets with my Betting Broker Sportmarket Pro who always provide the best offers on the market with a 1 click solution and don't limit winning players offering high limits. For more info check my Sportmarket Pro Review

It's great to be back in the green zone and I hope to be able to build on that as I do feel I have quite a good grip on the league at the moment after a difficult start with unusual circumstances. I'm still a bit below what I expect to win over the long run but the season is still very early on and I only have 159 bets in so far. If anything, volume really is key to betting and being able to tell your actual performance. Anyway, I'm very much enjoying the process of watching the matches, handicapping the league and trying to beat these betting markets even after all these years and am looking forward already to the action next 7 days!

Previous Personal Results 2020-2021

Week 05 Results 41 Bets | 23W-14L-04P | Staked 09.880u | +2.590u Profit..
Week 04 Results 39 Bets | 16W-18L-05P | Staked 12.258u | -0.604u Loss..
Week 03 Results 44 Bets | 19W-17L-08P | Staked 11.580u | +2.748u Profit
Week 02 Results 21 Bets | 08W-12L-01P | Staked 05.972u | -1.096u Loss..
Week 01 Results 15 Bets | 04W-10L-01P | Staked 05.618u | -2.724u Loss..

 Regular Season 2019-2020 Results
159 Bets | 70W-71L-19P | 45.308 Staked | +0.913u Profit | +2.01% ROI

Season 2019-2020 | 1406 Bets +2.48% ROI
Season 2018-2019 | 1090 Bets +2.47% ROI
Season 2017-2018 | 821 Bets +7.22% ROI

On to next week!

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