April 25th 2021 - How Many Will Stay in the Bear Market

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(Edited)

German television set from 1936/37 (source: Wikimedia Commons)

Some estimates tell that there are at least 150 million people in the world currently involved, directly or indirectly, with cryptocurrencies. Most of them have entered this world only recently, partly motivated with COVID-19 related economic crisis and its impact on traditional finances. Many of those new arrivals are also motivated by unprecedented profit opportunities and expect their modest investment to bring them Lamborghini or a yacht by Christmas.

Needless to say, most of those dreams are likely to turn into nightmare if the history repeats itself and we experience another massive dump that would start long and painful crypto winter. And if the history repeats itself many who became crypto enthusiasts in 2017 will become instant crypto sceptics and probably miss the next bull run. The only question is how many of them will react to rude awakening to this day.

If the history is any reference, the most likely answer is that the crypto world will see an exodus of new users, but not in numbers that would decrease cryptosphere population to levels before the this bull run. In other words, number of people involved in crypto during the next bear market will be significantly larger than the number of people involved in crypto during the last bear market. Crypto adoption will be slowed down, but lack of large profits will not stop technological innovation nor cancel convenience and other benefits of cryptocurrencies.

In many ways situation will be same as with the introduction of television. By late 1930s many countries, like USA, UK, Germany, France, USSR, Japan and even Poland, have already developed their own television stations, began to air television programmes and produced television sets. All this development was snuffed with the start of Second World War, when television stations ceased working. Yet, by late 1940s, only a few years after the war ended, number of television sets in the world was larger than number of television sets a decade ago. The same thing can happen with cryptosphere.

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