How long will crypto bull run be this time?

I heard more than one person which have infinite more information than I do say this bull run may not be like the ones before.

Yet enough people (including myself) seem to have a target for the bull run peak at the end of 2021.

But what if we are wrong?

I believe at a certain point, the relatively strong corellation between the halfing cycle of bitcoin and the full bull-bear cycle will be broken.

Either naturally, because the mining rewards will be too low to influence the bitcoin market (but that will take too long), or, more likely, because there will be a surge in demand that will put a constant buying pressure and postpone the bear.

I had a look one of the other days at the bitcoin's monthly chart, all the way back till 2011. It's easy to see the major cycles on it.

I included that chart here, and I drew verticals to delimitate the time when bulls were running the show, at the long-term scale.

If we look at the chart, the first bull run started in November 2011 and ended in November 2013, that's 2 years on the monthly chart.

The second bull run goes from August (or maybe September) 2015 till December 2017, as most of us know, and that's 2 years and 4 (or 5) months.

One cannot draw the conclusion we have a pattern here after only two bull runs, and say we have a longer bull run every time.

That's because we can have a third bull run of 1 year and 8 months and then there's no rule.

What we do have on the second bull run compared to the first one is a larger adoption of bitcoin and crypto in general, and now in the third wave, on top of increased retail interest we also have the interest of small firms to big corporations.

Our current bull market started after the crash in March 2020. That would put us 11 months into it.

End of year 2021 would be 21 months into it, or 1 year and 9 months.

Another year till the end of 2022 would be 2 years and 9 months. That's a few months longer than the previous bull run.

But who says it has to be December? The first bull run ended in November.

Anyway, these are pure speculations at this point. It depends a lot of the evolution of the market, as a very sharp move up into 6 figures, for instance, would likely hurry the return of the bears.

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