How to lose in trading even with 92% correct prediction for stock price directions
Yesterday I went through some stock charts and picked 13 I liked to consider for trading this week. I ended up picking 8 stocks for SHORT position and 5 for LONG. At the same time I continuing to watch StockDweebs' predictions that he announced on Sundays.
Among my own picks I really liked one, $HHR and placed an order before going to bed. That was only trade for the day. Good news is on the first trading day for the week, 12 out of my 13 picks performed as I predicted as far as direction of the price goes. All my shorts dropped in price, all but one of my longs increased in price.
Now the sad part is that the only trade I chose to take ended up going against my prediction. However, since the picks are based on 4 hour charts and meant to play out throughout the week, there is time for reversal and this trade becoming a profitable one.
Another interesting thing is that both StockDweebs and I believe $PENN is worth watching, but we are taking opposite positions. StockDweebs thinks it can be good long play, I think it is due to drop. It dropped today a tiny bit, not really significant. Will be interesting to see if I can beat StockDweebs prediction.
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I'm interested to see how this plays out. I've been trading a lot more lately and sticking to the mechanics and getting a lot of trades on to make sure that the probabilities play out has been important.
p.s. I shared the link to your post over on our new Reddit for some extra SEO juice :)
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Thank you @khaleelkazi. I am trying to slowly keep increasing trades with more disciplined approach. I would like to get to a position to make more frequent trades. I saw you like trading options. That my goal to learn more about options trading. Thanks for sharing on reddit.
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Well you actually discover more everyday and your trading experience so far hasn't been really bad at all despite the you know, ups and downs. I think you going a little against StockDweebs is quite great, feels like you're coming up with your own predictions and it would be nice to see it pan out that way. Cheers @geekgirl
Thank you @josediccus.
Thats unfortunate that the stock you chose to trade was the only one that went against your prediction. Hopefully it turns around. The market right now is baffling to me. I don't understand why the general trend is going up when half the world is either shut down or running at a reduced capacity. Unemployment is high across the globe. Why is there so much market confidence? Irrational markets I guess? I understand the trading aspect though. The volatility makes it a traders dream
While I don’t fully understand how it works, I have read and heard several times that Fed has been pumping money(hundreds of billions) into the market through repo market and this has kept markets going so far.
Interesting. I'll have to read up on that some more. Thanks!
As long as your averages are positive, it’ll be fine. Trading is like baseball. Hit 3/10 and you’ll make it to the hall of fame.
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