Market Sentiment - On-chain, Pi Cycle, Fear & Greed Index

The rise of crypto market was supposed to make a correction since everyone was waiting for any sign to realize their profit. I did not expect to see such a sharp decrease in the price of cryptocurrencies within such a short time. However, this correction made me more bullish.

Source

In the wild nature of Bitcoin, so do cryptocurrencies, we are used to seeing bloody days for our crypto investments. Regardless of the price ranges, I stick to Moving Averages, strong support levels and my sentimental analysis. A months ago I published a post about Stablizing your portfolio in a bull run to be more secure and to have more rooms for maneuver.

Even though Since the very first day of Elon Musk's manipulative statements, I have been expecting to see 38k for Bitcoin. I mentioned my expectation on my previous post.

Though I could foresee the deep correction triggered by FUD, I did not want to sell my crypto investments and I accepted to see my portfolio bloody red. At that point, I should control my emotions and take some actions by solely using my brain 😅

Time For Rest Until Healthy Signs

I'm not concerned with this harp decrease though it's a real psychology tester. Now that the market chose to end up the flowing liquidity, it's better for me to watch the things from outside.

Meanwhile, I would love to share one of my favorite indicators that I'm going to rely on before getting into train again with further investments on cryptocurrencies.

Pi Cycle Top Indicator

I saw this indicator on a social media platform while reading posts about crypto and trading. To be honest, I'm fascinated with its successful mechanism.

For 111 days MA, the price was between $51.500 - $52K when we see the sell signal.

For 350 days MA, the price was above $53k. After testing the lower levels, you can see the sharp decrease clearly.

While we are testing Lower Highs and Lower Lows, I refrain from buying or longing cryptocurrencies. However I cannot admit that we are in the bear market. The only thing I see is that the second phase of bull-market is postponed for a while.

PlanBTC

There is a nice chart shared by PlanBTC over the previous tops and the color of the dots from the top levels. If you check the current top, the sentiment looks yellow but for red in color.

I give credits to On-chain analysis though normally I rely mostly on it for Ethereum. However, there is a clear representation of indecisive market situation.

Greed & Fear - Being Warren Buffet 😄

For stock market, the motto "be greedy when everyone is fearful" works perfectly as it's nothing compared to our wild crypto market. Even if everyone is greedy or fearful, you have to be watchful in crypto to be able to survive.

Index

The Fear & Greed Index is appreciated by many people. For me, it reveals nice insight regarding the investment decisions taken by crypto enthusiasts. Yet, I cannot solely rely on this indicator. Basically, there are always deeper levels to be tested ^^

Conclusion

As I expected, we are around $38k for Bitcoin and the whole market is depressed. I do not think that we are getting into a bear market even though the Lower Highs and Lower Lows are not perfect signals 💁‍♂️

My personal opinion is to adopt an observer role until everything settles. Though I care about $38k, we may even test $25K levels for some technical analysts. Meanwhile, I'll be checking Elliott waves, Pi Cycle Indicator, volume and EMA/MA to feel secure enough to invest even more. I'll be looking for right time to open buy orders. For now, time to rest for me.

What about you guys?
Are you bearish, bullish or indecisive?
Enlighten us with your vision.

Thanks for your attention.

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