Crude oil supply and demand and position on ECB economy
The immediate past ECB governor (Draghi) is in a position that it is important to use high-quality debt to recover the economy. Meanwhile, according to the Ministry of Energy of Saudi Arabia, global crude oil demand will recover to the level before Corona 19 in the fourth quarter of this year. Let's take a brief look at the related content.
ECB leadership
The former governor of the European Central Bank (ECB) needs a reliable economic policy for the youth who are responsible for reimbursing the cost of countermeasures against the novel coronavirus, and highly appreciates the issue of joint bonds for the EU's recovery fund. In addition, the financial market is in a position that it should provide funds only for high-quality debt such as human capital. Meanwhile, the recovery of the euro zone (19 countries using euros) is a fundamental factor for the payment capacity of European banks.
The current vice-president of the ECB De Guundos, who argued that the banking sector in Europe, is unlikely to escape the crisis by 2020. For reference, the Eurozone consumer price in July 2020 (confirmed value) was 0.4% compared to the same month last year, which was higher than the previous June (0.3%) and is in line with the breaking news (0.4%). In June of the same year, the euro zone current account (billion euros) was 206.9 (29 trillion won), which is higher than the previous May (112.7 = 15.8 trillion won), and is the same as expected.
Postponement of ECB game judgment
In the minutes of the ECB's July Monetary Policy Meeting, economic decisions will be postponed to the September meeting of this year. This is because there is uncertainty about the future economic outlook and the scale of monetary policy easing required. ECB director Ren points out that the extent and extent of recovery is not uniform and partial. There are many opinions that the economic activity and mid-term price forecast will become clearer in September. In addition, participants will discuss whether to use the entire amount of 1,35 trillion euros (1,890 trillion won) allocated to the Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP) for Corona 19 Response.
The economies of major European countries are now
The Italian government is planning to submit a plan to support the economic recovery to the EU by mid-October, insisting that it will strengthen research investment by focusing on the presence/absence (type) infrastructure. Meanwhile, the demand for 30-year water treasury bonds in Germany is largely increased due to inflows from dollar assets. The bid rate of related bonds reached 2.9 times in 1997
It is the highest level since. On the other hand, some analyze that bond demand is structurally increasing as a result of continued selling of dollar assets. Some members of the Christian Democratic Union, the current ruling party, who held the position that the debt ceiling should be maintained within a short period of time, criticized the Minister of Finance, Scholtz, for a proposal to suspend the debt ceiling regulations stipulated in the Constitution until 2021 (next year). On the other hand, trade negotiations between the EU and the UK
We observe that the probability of consensus is very low. In the main issues recognized as the biggest obstacle to the agreement between the two sides-securing equal competition conditions with fishing rights, etc., most of them have not made progress, and negotiators are aware of the risk of breakdown. For reference, consumer prices in the UK in July 2020 compared to the same month last year were 1.0%, higher than the previous June (0.6%) and forecast (0.6%).
Global crude oil demand recovery period
The Saudi Ministry of Energy has a 97% probability that global oil demand will reach pre-Corona 19 crisis levels in the fourth quarter of this year, based on the predictions of many organizations related to oil prospects. We urge OPEC Plus (+) to increase the compliance rate of production cuts to support international oil prices. Meanwhile, OPEC+ is in the position that it needs to cut production by an additional 2.23 million barrels per day to adjust for overproduction. Internal beam
The old book analyzes that there is a need to adjust overproduction in May-July in August-September. OPEC+ sets a separate crude oil supply and demand scenario when the second pandemic of the novel Corona 19 is prolonged in the US, Europe, China, and India in the second half of the year. According to international joint petroleum statistics, Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports in June fell 17.3% from the previous month to 4.98 million barrels per day, the lowest level since January 2002.
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