2018 vs 2020. A horror story...

in LeoFinance4 months ago (edited)

Very little did I know about crypto, till the very early days of 2018 after 30 days of waiting when I finally received the confirmation e-mail from the Steemit team that my account had been approved. As much as I hate to admit it because of all the events with the hostile takeover...the stolen funds...the hypocrisy, Steem (the technology / community) has been not only my gateway to the rest of the crypto world, but also a place where I was educated regarding various crypto projects that I had no idea they even existed.

Thankfully, 99%+ of those active users have migrated to Hive, so the journey is far from over.

What I can't forget though is BTC cruising at $20.000...ya it was during those days, right in the middle of the previous bull run where BTC was mooning and dragged every single crypto project with it...

BTC: From ~ $4.000 to $20.000 in 3 months. ~ 5x

ETH: From ~ $300 to $1430 in 3 months. ~ 5x

XMR: From ~ $95 to $495 n 3 months. ~5x

STEEM HIVE: From ~ $1 to $8.57 in 3 months. ~ 8x

And that's the tip of the iceberg. Some coins, especially some shitcoins went 20x...or 50x...or 200x...and made some investors really happy and wealthy too. At least those who had nerves of steel and held all the way up...

Being a newcomer during a bull run is a blessing and a curse all at the same time. I didn't know about bull runs...halving events...pump and dumps...I knew nothing. All I knew and all I wanted was to strengthen my position on Steem. Therefore I started buying when everyone else was dumping...

Bought at $4...at $2.8...at $1.6...all the way down to 10 cents...ya...silly me.

Since then a lot have changed. Everything can change in a blink of an eye when it comes to crypto, let alone almost 3 years later.

Hive was born...and all the big names have had a halving event which makes mining far more difficult and expensive.

Long story short, I was looking at my Hive wallet only to realize that I am close to 110K HP. And while it would definitely feel like an achievement back in 2018 and an account like mine would worth close to $500.000 (used $5/per Hive as a reference), nowadays it's worth...a bit less than $15.000 and I got to tell you, it feels weird...

At the same time BTC is roughly 40% down form its ATH, ETH around 70% down from its ATH and the rest is history. Every alt coins is being hammered day after day with few bright exceptions in which Hive is definitely not a part of.

So I was killing my time on the web when I stumbled upon this tool, this crypto converter which is pretty handy and instantly converts any amount of a specific currency to any other currency

20201025 20_01_52Cryptocurrency Calculator  Converter  WalletInvestor.com.png

All one has to do is fill the amount of tokens they want in the first tab, then the currency and select what currency that amount is equal to.

I had to check Hive...you feel me?


I used 100.000 tokens as a point of reference and kept swinging between BTC...Eth...XMR...and so on and forth.

Curious to see what 100K Hive is equal to? Let's see...

20201025 18_53_47100000 HIVE to BTC  Exchange  How much Bitcoin BTC is 100000 Hive HIVE _ E.png

20201025 18_52_51100000 HIVE to BTC  Exchange  How much Bitcoin BTC is 100000 Hive HIVE _ E.png

20201025 18_53_28100000 HIVE to BTC  Exchange  How much Bitcoin BTC is 100000 Hive HIVE _ E.png

OK...that's depressing...what I've been fighting for, for the past 3 years is equal to 1.06 BTC.

Just so you know...during ATH's 1.06 BTC = $21.000.
100K Hive was worth $850.000. So 100K Hive was 40.48 BTC.


We all know that BTC is the king of them all so let's see how does Hive perform against ETH.

20201025 18_57_44100000 HIVE to ETH  Exchange  How much Ethereum ETH is 100000 Hive HIVE _ .png

20201025 18_58_04100000 HIVE to ETH  Exchange  How much Ethereum ETH is 100000 Hive HIVE _ .png

So 100K Hive nowadays = 33.85 ETH... While back in the day...one could trade 100K Hive...wait for it... for 566 ETH. And plz don't start with that same story...that Hive is just 6 months old and blah blah blah...

Also...100K Hive = ~80K LEO...just saying...

With all that being said...there's still room for accumulation...just think that only 1.06 or 34 ETH is required and BANG...you got 100K Hive in your wallet.

Every comparison I've made with the most famous tokens...the result was equally depressing. i see no reason why HIVE shouldn't compete with them...the technology is there...the community is there also...we just need to find the missing piece of the puzzle...

I see all those beautiful things being built on Eth Network...with the ridiculous fees and wonder what would it take to build the same if not better stuff on Hive...

I have a feeling that we still have a long way to go...and if we want to see HIVE thrive at some point, a lot of things need to be done, like marketing which is solely depended on our shillings on Twitter or other social media platforms...

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There are so many promising projects out there that people get confused about which to follow. Meanwhile, HIVE is working great and taking small steps every day to get to the top. Let's hope it will happen, though. Together we can do it, I know!

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Honestly I think the biggest problem with this sob-story is that it hasn't completed yet. We've still got one more year to go before we complete the next Bitcoin halving market cycle. We're all on this clock, whether we like it or not.

If at any point Hive is trading at or above all time highs again all these comparisons sort of melt into the background and become irrelevant... or perhaps that's just what I keep telling myself to retain sanity.

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We've still got one more year to go before we complete the next Bitcoin halving market cycle.

I've seen you discuss about that cycle. History might repeat itself, but if it was that easy everyone would simply wait...and start investing when we would be close to that cycle...every 2-3 years. They would take their profits and reinvest 3 years later. Don't get me wrong I DO want history to repeat itself...

If at any point Hive is trading at or above all time highs again all these comparisons sort of melt into the background and become irrelevant

True, yet unless we give people reasons to hold HP I don't think it's gonna happen any time soon. Not even during a bull run actually.

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but if it was that easy everyone would simply wait...

You say that... AND that is what SHOULD happen, but then human psychology comes into play and everything gets extremely irrational (especially when dealing with vast sums of currency).

True, yet unless we give people reasons to hold HP I don't think it's gonna happen any time soon.

I think it's weird that everyone seems to exclusively focus on this. What reasons to users have to power up their Bitcoin? Oh wait, there is no such thing as powered up Bitcoin. Every price point is "simply" a matter of buying vs selling pressure. There are thousands of variables that go into each side of that equation.

It's one thing to provide liquidity or place a sell order and another one to "kill" every single Hive token one earns.

I had an interesting discussion the other day in discord with a guy, I won't name names. You know what label did you use for Hive? The blockchain of the poor...I was like "wtf are you even talking about bud"?

The conclusion, his conclusion, was that there are far more poor people who simply blog and kill their rewards trying to make a living off of Hive that the price might never recover...

Sure for every seller there's a buyer but whales already possess tons of Hive and they will only buy again probably when price goes 50% down from where we are now. And they'll strengthen their position...And that's how a "decentralized" blockchain becomes "centralized"... That's what everyone should do imo. Strengthen their position. Not just whales...

So ya, there's not such thing as powered up BTC but Hive is be default a place where holding HP matters.

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Do not miss the last post from @hivebuzz:

Hivebuzz support the Papillon Foundation Charity project

we just need to find the missing piece of the puzzle...

Marketing.

I see all those beautiful things being built on Eth Network...with the ridiculous fees and wonder what would it take to build the same if not better stuff on Hive...

High fees somehow give value to the project same as in gas consumption to powerful sports cars.

marketing which is solely depended on our shillings on Twitter or other social media platforms...

I would get even further to have some sort of spokespersons featured in crypto related podcasts, youtube interviews, make the headlines of news outlets once in a while, have some damn Hive adds on different websites and so on...

Sorry about your poor investment and hope you learned your lesson. I have my similar ones as well, not on this scale honestly but still quite painful and disappointing.

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High fees somehow give value to the project same as in gas consumption to powerful sports cars.

People hate it just like they hate slow transactions. During bull runs nobody will feel comfortable paying $50 for an Eth transaction...let alone BTC transactions...

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You have to get recognized though to have high revenues during bull runs, but you have a point it's the little things that matter.

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Well to this discussion I have to add that for the hive that is worth little over 1 btc or 33.85 ETH you have something else too.
That is tons of crypto experience though intangible yet invaluable.
Which I am sure would help you capitalize on any future bull runs @mindtrap

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Fortunately, day after day the number of people thinking that Marketing is our next target project is increasing.
Hope the owners of this blockchain takes the message and use the DAO on that purpose better than developing stupid things.

Hope the owners of this blockchain takes the message and use the DAO on that purpose better than developing stupid things.

You mean the very big stakeholders, right?

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It would be nice for HIVE to have some leaders though.

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yes, @blocktrades in particular

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At this rate Hive will go even lower, big inflation, no marketing and alot of circle jerks are destroying Hive.

You must know alot about circle jerks being involved with the backscratcher curation trail.

Backscrather curation trail has the mostly minnows.
Circle jerks are people who have more then 100k Hive power and upvote strickly people of that caliber.

minnows dont have 18 cent upvotes right now

Hmm.. idk anyone like that.

You are one greedy human being!

I am? I had no idea.

Yes u are.
Reciving 15$ per shit post and downvoting my 2$ posts!

Its been alot of work over many years, maybe if you put work into your posts you could too.

The only reason you got noticed is for using a upvoting service on Hive. After HF21 there was to be no more of that.

It’s all about the rewards. More abundance=more users. If people are able to actually earn a decent amount of monthly income from Hive ecosystem the platform will sell itself.

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Someone would say that this is a pesimist post, but I would say that it's a realistic look at things... Yes, price is awful, and that's a fact...

On the other side, the possibilities of the blockhain infrastructure here are gigantic, and some of dApps build on it are doing great... So, or they are crazy that have built their business here, or others don't know all the possibilities of this chain...

I would say that second is the case... And I hope that we will find a way to attract more great dApps (or tribes, social media projects) that will pave the road for Hive...

I wouldn't expect anything else. It's Halloween time just around the corner.
I'm optimistic, though. Big guys don't need marketing. They mining Koin now to later on jump on Koinos chain, dump koins for profit and keep milking.

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lol

Most likely...

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I can feel every word that you have written here as if it was my story.
I learned a lot from the last bull run, I hope next time we will be more smart and take some profits!

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Hive will thrive, we just got through our first hard fork and many more great things to come.

I think POSH has helped Hive gain some attention on twitter but more needs to be done.

nice post sir good calculate.