July 5th, Day off in the US - lower volatility is expected in the market

By the end of the week, the major currencies showed a decline. The largest drop against the US dollar was shown by the Australian dollar (-0.81%). A smaller drop was recorded by the euro (-0.60%), the New Zealand dollar (-0.56%), the Swiss franc (-0.41%), the British pound (-0.33%), the Canadian dollar (-0.22%) ), Japanese yen (-0.21%).

On Friday, July 2, at the end of the day, the euro closed with an increase of 0.13% to 1.1864. The market reacted to the growth of jobs by buying the dollar. The euro rate renewed at least 1.1807, from which it ricocheted sharply to 1.1874. Investors were not satisfied with the other components of the report. Average hourly wages fell and unemployment rose. Additional pressure on the dollar was exacerbated by the long weekend in the US (Independence Day).

Scheduled statistics (GMT +3):

• From 10:55 to 11:00, Markit's services PMIs for June in France, Germany and the eurozone will be released.
• At 11:30, the eurozone will present the Sentix Investor Confidence Indicator for July. The UK is to release the June services PMI and will announce the change in mortgage loans issued for the 1st quarter.
• At 17:30 in Canada will be released a review of business prospects, according to the Bank of Canada, for the 2nd quarter.

Current situation:

Over the week, the euro has fallen in price by 0.60%, over the month - by 3.01%. During the quarter, the euro rose in price by 1.08%, in the first half of the year - by 2.94%. Buyers lost most of their profits after the FOMC meeting on June 16.

Key support goes through 1.1790 (daily trending). The minimum is fixed at 1.1807. The technical conditions are favorable for the resumption of growth. If the price rises to 1.1970 by July 9, the first signal to continue the recovery to 1.2100 will appear. Otherwise, the euro risks falling to 1.1660.

Trading in Asia opened with growth in the dollar. The market is correcting after Friday's drop. The euro fell to 1.1851 (sma55). At the time of this writing, the euro is worth 1.1865. Given that US exchanges are closed for a national holiday, trader activity is expected to be low on Monday. It is believed that the price will remain in the range of 1.1841-1.1885.

Summary: the euro closed higher on Friday, after mixed data on the US labor market. The States celebrate Independence Day on Monday. In this regard, a decrease in the activity of traders is expected on the market. We are waiting for fluctuations in the range of 1.1841-1.1885. Supports are the levels 1.1846 and 1.1820. Buyers need to go through 1.1885 to accelerate growth.

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