financialgoals2021 | It's communities, Jim, but not as we know it

in LeoFinance2 months ago

image.png

Source

Very briefly, by way of introduction, I became an Orca way back in June 2020 and have a size-able Hive-Engine portfolio where I mainly invest in income generating tokens - SPI, EDS, LBI and INDEX. I also have a small amount of Bitcoin.

I'm your sensible auntie investor: I have goals and buying plans, based on a simple analysis (mainly business/use case and who is involved - their skills experience and reputation), I review my goals regularly and I rarely impulse buy.

Having worked and invested for the best part of fifty years, cryptocurrency forms a very small percentage of my investment portfolio. Although I was interested, when I was doing the research for this post, to discover that I, and most of my fellow UK Orcas, are outliers in terms of cryptocurrency ownership in the UK.

Having reached my numbers targets and with my investments starting to mature and produce income, my financial goals for 2021 are focused on how we increase the value of Hive and two inter-related questions:

  • how can we create value for people who are not yet on hive?
  • how do we normalise Hive and cryptocurrency?

One way of creating value is to solve a problem, and one of the mechanisms that we have available to us to do this is communities. Communities create niches where we can bring together social capital to solve problems in the world outside Hive.

For the past seven or eight months I've been researching and putting together a plan for The Ink Well, a community for writers and readers of short stories. It's taken a while to refine the focus and to see where there is the greatest opportunity to bring new users to Hive.

We're about there now and a couple of days ago, The Ink Well published its Manifesto setting out its business proposition for writers, readers and investors. This has been written for an external audience and is aimed at the UK as that is where I am based and have contacts and connections.

This post talks a little bit more about some of the research and assumptions behind the Manifesto and starts to set out some goals 2021. I did some research about the creative industries and publishing earlier this year and also posted about the writer economy. Fundamentally:

The creative industries, which includes publishing and broadcasting, adds £111.7bn each year to the UK economy - greater than the automative, aerospace, life sciences and oil and gas combined. At the same time, the numbers and incomes of writers continue to fall with the median annual income for a professional author at £10,500pa (USD 11,300pa) in 2018, with BME writers faring worse, calling into question the extent to which writers' contribution to the creative industries is properly valued.

We know that there are about 89,000 writers in the UK (2020), and that many of these are used to managing portfolio incomes from different sources for writing, and from supplementary activities such as teaching. Writers are already used to working across multiple channels.

The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) estimated that about 5.35% of the adult population in the UK owned cryptocurrencies (December 2019) - an increase of 2.35% from 1.5 million people to 2.6 million people. In addition, 73% of adults had heard of cryptocurerncies (42% previously). Most cryptocurrency owners hold small sums (75% hold less than £1,000) and were aware of the lack of regulatory protections as well as that prices are volatile. Only 15% 'expected to make money quickly'.

These findings seem to indicate a rapidly growing sophistication about cryptocurrencies. I've used the findings to estimate the numbers of the writer population that might naturally migrate or adopt Hive:

Cryptocurrency Writer Ownership Projections

Year%No of writers
20193.00%2,670
20205.35%4,760
20219.50%8,460

The table assumes the same growth in ownership in 2021 as there was in 2020. This is based on raised levels of MSM reporting of Bitcoin activity in December 2020-January 2021 which will have increased awareness and confidence in cryptocurrencies.

Using these projections, The Ink Well takes 8,460 as the baseline target for recruiting new, active writers to Hive over three years with a target of 1,410 new writers for 2021, 2,820 for 2022 and 4,230 for 2023. Assuming the same purchasing pattern for Hive as for cryptocurrencies in the UK:

Holdings202120222023Total
50% = £2501.2m Hive2.4m Hive3.5m Hive7.1m Hive
25% = £1,0002.4m Hive5.0m Hive7m Hive14.4m Hive
15% = £3,0004.2m Hive8.5m Hive12.7m Hive25.4m Hive
10% = £5,0004.7m Hive9.4m Hive14.1m Hive28.2m Hive
Total12.5m Hive25.3m Hive37.3m Hive75.1m Hive

Based on 0.15c Hive

Several things are not taken into account in these projections:

  • they are based only on UK writers, however, any activity or investment in the UK leading to increased activity in The Ink Well will have a network effect across other countries and regions.
  • they account only for writers and not for readers (or curators, as they would generally be known on Hive).
  • changes in the price of Hive.

Readers are an important component to the business proposition in the Manifesto. There is public funding available for audience development - targeted activities to attract readers to Hive as consumers. The Manifesto proposes that:

by opening a Hive account and purchasing Hive equivalent to the value of a paperback book once a month for a year, readers will receive rewards for reading which can be used in a variety of ways including exchanging for fiat currencies (eg USD, GBP, Euros). The greater the amount of Hive the reader has, the greater their potential to receive rewards.

The ability to reward readers for reading is a unique feature of tokenised communities. It is potentially highly disruptive as it removes the supply chain between reader and writer and creates a direct relationship where both parties are rewarded. It is going to be really interesting to see how this plays out.

Increases in readers and writers may create additional co-ordinating and governance demands with an increased need for editors and moderators. We anticipate that there will be an overlap between the roles of co-ordinating and governance, writing and reading.

Now that we have the Manifesto in place and have started to predict some target numbers for growth, our next step will be testing some of these ideas with University students on creative writing courses. The offer will be:

a learning/career development experience where there is also potential for earning spare cash to help them through uni[versity] source

Writing the Manifesto was a great help in defining and clarifying the business proposition for The Ink Well. This post has helped to identify targets and potential milestones, and also some of the many variables that will come into play.

The bottom line, though, is 1,400 readers and writers actively earning rewards in The Ink Well by the end of 2021.

This may not seem many, but when set against the current 20,000 Hive users globally, and the ten largest OCD supported communities, each of which offers similar opportunities to The Ink Well, between them, there is significant potential for growth.

What will this do for the price of Hive by the end of 2021? Hard to say at this stage, but if we are broadly doubling the user base across communities, I'd suggest 50c would not be unreasonable.

References
Cryptoasset consumer research 2020 - FCA, UK (June 2020)
Cryptoassets: Ownership and attitudes in the UK - FCA, UK (March 2019).
How and why consumers buy cryptoassets - Revealing Reality, UK (March, 2019)
Authors' Earnings 2018, a survey of UK writers - ALCS, (2018)

image.png

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

Sort:  

If you can bring thousands of British writers to Hive that would be massive considering we only have about 100 Brits active here now. I see great potential in niche areas for Hive. Keep up the good work.

That's true, I had forgotten the tiny user base in the UK.
Let's see what we can do.

Well, isn't this a beautiful view into the number-related environment of The Ink Well. It's nice to see these projections for the project and also knowing there's a community over there to support this idea of giving writers more freedom, public and income. Looks like 2021 will be a profitable year for writer in Hive as we have more waves of Pandemic going on.

I hope so: the pandemic creates other opportunities.

Things will get moving and the community will get a spotlight in the internet. That much I hope for.

So awesome to see the community of finance content providers growing and flourishing with innovations like #leofinance!

The supply of $HIVE seems to be a little too high now with so much printed every day so I am concentrating on just earning as many as possible. When the printing starts to diminish, then we will see huge gains.

Still, Hive is creating bloggers, LeoFinance is creating financial bloggers, and a slow trickle of new users can accelerate with duplication.

You had me at beer. ;)

beerologistapproved.png

Haha, I needn't have written all the rest ... or maybe beer x 1,333 times 😁.
Good plan to soak up all that excess Hive while you can!

Those figures don't in any way sound unrealistic to me!

Great work you're doing for the Ink Well!

Always good to have another spreadsheet enthusiast look them over.
I do wonder who the FCA include in their surveys, though, we're a long way in front of the curve!
How's Portugal? Is it any warmer? Very cold here, I've just bought a new coat which is lovely and warm and comes right down over my knees. Lovely!

It was freezing yesterday, so cold I just abandoned the day, stayed in bed and watchd season one of Dark on Netflix, the whole thing. And at biscuits.

Much nicer today, cold but brighter.

The cold here is short lived though, not as persistent as in the UK, I don't even think it'd be worth my buying a really proper winter coat, I can get by with what I've got!

It was freezing yesterday, so cold I just abandoned the day, stayed in bed and watchd season one of Dark on Netflix, the whole thing. And at biscuits.

I guess that's very similar to how we spent a lot of very cold days at one stage, although without Netflix.

I do wonder how people used to cope 1000 years ago, in Northern Europe.

Life must have just been shit in winter.

Good to see another Brit here and looks like you have a pretty epic plan that's been thoroughly thought through. Guess that comes with 50+ years of experience!

I am not surprised by the number of people knowing about crypto in the UK increasing as it's being more talked about. Surprised the majority only have a grand in or less, guess I'm just a reckless fool 😁

Hope you manage to get to where you want to be with The Ink Well and love the idea of combining with uni students for extra income. Students will always be grateful for a bit of cash, those folks get a raw deal with tuition fees!

Hello @nickyhavey, good to connect 😁.

Surprised the majority only have a grand in or less, guess I'm just a reckless fool 😁

This surprised me, too, I thought it would be larger sums.

Yes, it will be fun to see what happens, there is a natural synergy between blogging and writing begging to be exploited. I'm just waiting until it's slightly warmer and less chaotic regarding pandemic regulations and what education establishments are able to do.

With luck we'll get to meet this year ... you're somewhere around London?

Yeah the pandemic has pretty much wrecked everything and closing schools/universities - I think this academic year is another write off but hoping with the 3rd vaccine now there's enough tools in the arsenal to get things back in action.

I'm in between Oxford and London but London is easier to put on the profile! Takes about an hour to get in via tube if I remember that far back 😁 you near the capital too?

I'm in Leicester but when there isn't a pandemic I work in London once a week, near Kings Cross. I like to get to meetups when I can, hopefully we'll see more of those later in the year.

Thanks for continuing to make Hive awesome.

YOu make me smile every time @star.lord 😍

I have on-boarded several writers. Unfortunately, none of them of really come on board. They jumped ship or never really get started for 4 reasons.

(1) The platforms have a steep tech/coding curve.
Most people don't know HTML/markup and don't know how to learn it.

(2) They lose their passwords

(3) They are reluctant to 'permanently' post written work and thereby cut off any opportunity to publish with traditional publishers

(4) They are often censored for posting older work

From my experience, it isn't just about attracting people; it is also about keeping them.

it isn't just about attracting people; it is also about keeping them.

I would agree wholeheartedly and that is about having an offer which is about more than "join us", including having specialist niches that respond to specific needs. I agree about the technology and people's awareness of the significance of passwords and keys: that will change over time with improvements in technology and people's understanding of blockchain.

With regard to publishing, that's about understanding the role that Hive can play within a broader portfolio of earning opportunities by both writers and publishers. A portfolio of well-written stories on Hive can be a showcase for a writer's work and lead to other work as well as not instead of.

I don't know enough about the context of posting older work that you're talking about, but we have tipping now, which is a new opportunity for earning beyond the seven day pay out period. Writers can create a bookstore where they showcase their best/most popular work to bring it to the attention of new readers. Several writers in The Ink Well already have these; others are in preparation and The Ink Well will also soon have one.