Can you sell for profit are will you over-HODL in 2021?

in LeoFinance2 months ago

SPinvest is a tokenized investment fund/club experiment open to all HIVE users. The concept of SPinvest is to get rich slowly by using time tested methods of earning, saving and compounding long term. We encourage long term investing on and off the blockchain. We hope someday everyone will HODL some SPI tokens that can be bought directly from hive-engine by search SPI.
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Hello, SPIer's. Today we are going to look into how to make the most money during this coming bullrun that has already begun assuming you own some cryptos. Maybe a better way to word it would be how to preserve your profit before the bear run reappears and prices start tanking. A lot of people are so focused on their holding 10x, they forget the rollercoaster does not go up forever and fall victim to over HODLing. Yep, over-HODLing.

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What is over-HODLing

Over HODLing is continuing to HODL a token between the bullrun and bear run stitch over. Over HODLing is when the value of your ALT token drops 80% in 3-6 months after a strong bullrun. This is how you get destroyed and lose all the sweet gains you had only a few months back. Let's look at the first 4 months of 2018 and see what happened for people that HOLDed their crypto.

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This is the result of over HODLing. This was after only 4 months of the bubble popping, we all know that the above token prices went much lower. BTC went to around $3600, ETH to around $130, STEEM went to $0.11 and EOS is traded for under $2.

HODLing long term, as in 10 years plus will bring you fantastic gains but we dont live forever and market cycles are taking 4ish years. What if you were you sell your position close to the top, and rebuy back in much stronger during the "peak" of the bear market? Would you not 2-3x your crypto holdings each market cycle? Im not talking about selling at the peak and buying at the bottom because it's not possible to know when these will happen but you can guess based on past history and get within a ballpark range. The goal would be to buy back more than you sold, if you can do that, you win.

Why stay on the horse when you know it's going to be running through mud for the next few years slowing it down?

2 Things to watch out for

  • The crypto market always peaks at the end of the year
  • The final push from bulls has always pushed BTC 300-400% in 3 weeks before the bubble pops. This could be thought of as the last big push before fresh money runs out and everything pops.

If its between November and start of January and your crypto tokens explode 300%, you better be quick to start selling some out and converting them to other assets. Looking at number 1, do not have "the fear of losing out on future profits". Learn you take your profits before they...pop and disappear into the wallets of those that are selling and taking profits. Dont be a greedy twat.

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If you follow these 2 rules, you would have done very well in 2013 and 2017. Im willing to put a large chunk of SPinvest's holding on the line and say it's going happen for a third time during 2021. If I am wrong, we will have a fund worth a few hundred thousand dollars so win-win really when we consider where we started from 20 months back.

Selling your crypto

When to sell your crypto is really up to you. What i would suggest during a bull run year to be more focused on exiting from November onwards. One thing you can do is set your own moon. Let's say you hold 20 ETH and you personally think ETH will hit $5k. Make this your moon, forget about all the FUB in the news, that is day to day BS that will be forgotten about in a few weeks. Focus on your personal moon number. Think about what you will do with that money when ETH hits $5k and you cash out your $100k. Have your mind already made up and know exactly how your going to allocate your $100k when you get it. This will be your goal and you will use the goal to help you pull the trigger on sell orders when the time comes. If you plan to buy a boat for $100k, you should fantasize yourself in your boat, boating about a local lake drinking beer, fishing and doing whatever else boaters do. Talking to other boaters about their boats and stuff i guess. Picture yourself doing all that stuff. You should window shop for boats and make this your goal. Believe me, when ETH hits $5k, selling will be easy. This is how you think your dreams into existence.

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If ETH were to continue and go to say $8k before the bubble pops and its drops to under $3500 by Apr 2022, would you be annoyed that you missed out on $60k profit as you sail in the boat you've been dreaming about? You might think, i could have got a bigger boat but not really because you have hit your personal target and got your reward.

How you retain your profits

Nothing fancy are hard to do here. You can simply convert all you crypto when your sell them into stable tokens and stake them on a platform like Nexo, celsuis are one of the other 4-5 creditable saving/lending platforms. Earn 6-11% on your stables and wait for BTC to drop 70-75% from its market cycle peak. When this happens, rebuy back into crypto tokens with a bigger bag.

Retain profits is simple. The problem is making profits, sorry let me try that again. The problem is selling crypto when they are in profit and not over HODLing them thinking the party will never stop. Most HODLer's that hold tokens that drop 95% say "you dont lose money until you sell" but this is not true. The moment you buy in any investment, you lose your money right away and you only get it back when you sell the asset. You need to sell you make a profit are a loss, this is the hardest thing for HODLer's to do. They do not like to sell and they pay for it when the bubble pops and they get wrecked and watch their wallets shrink 80% in dollar value over 3-6 months. Dont make yourself this person, make your own moon number and dream about it. Dream it into reality and seize the moment when it appears. The experience of winning will be worth more than any amount of money and you have learned an important lesson in discipline and sticking to your target. If you can not learn to sell investments, you will always lose money but when you need to sell them, chances are they will not be close to all time highs assuming all-time highs come for 3-4 weeks once every 4 years.

Anyways, this is not financial advice. We are all free you lose our money in our way, this is how I will lose mine.

Hope you enjoyed the post, smash the upvote 100% if you liked this post and free feel to leave comments below.


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I think the people who say you only lose when you sell are hurt because they missed the opportunity to sell. There are certain things I won’t sell but most of the crypto isn’t because that’s their purpose in many ways. Buy and sell, use it like a currency. I missed the train at 42k for bitcoin but will I miss the next one? Time will tell! I’m not going to hold it all though that’s for sure lol

Some say that because many think bitcoin will get to $140 - $150k. But it will take years to get there and it's an IF as no one can guarantee that, right?

It comes down to each individual after all. If you are in desperate need of fiat and you have no choice, you sell to save your life. If you're not pressured by needs, you can make a better choice.

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I haven't converted anything into Fiat, but I do do a lot of trading of the HE tokens and converting blurt via ionomy, I even have a few ION tokens and a couple of miners there, no real big amounts of anything anywhere, but I am constantly trying to take advantage of price changes, not very good at it yet, but I am learning. Another year and a half and I may get start to look at KYC exchanges to really begin investing via buying and selling.

Can we knew who authored the article please?

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Thanks, that's really helpful for a newbie like me. :)

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Yep. From your perspective I'm an over-hodler but I'm also in it long-term, for BTC at least.

I find buying and selling way too stressful. Just buying is bad enough. But I will look into the staking platforms at some point since, what I'm really after is steady income rather than just capital growth.

It could be said I lost out by HODling Steem but, by keeping it I got the Hive airdrop and I sold that for BTC which worked out rather well. 😁

I can't see myself selling my little bit of BTC and if it moons (no idea where my moon is) that will mean more income for me, less CGT to pay for me and the kids can do with it what they will.

It would be nice to get a whole BTC though. It would be so much neater than a fraction. 😂

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Don't sell BTC...next 5 years it will be costly. Sell your other coins for BTC and book profits, there is going to be shortage of BTC you know, its digital gold.

I'll personally do both. Sell profits at some point and hodl at some point. For me, the balance is necessary especially when you have some needs that require funding.

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I AM NOT SELLING MY BTC...right now, its maddness to think its a profit making asset, its a wealth preservation asset. I am learning to sell parts of my ALT coin now, part by part for BTC and HODLING BTC...

Lets see...this bull run is different than 2017 for sure.

Thank you for writing this post. Being new to the world of crypto I have often been wondering about how to handle it when the markets come down again.

What you are saying, about selling and then buying in stronger at a lower price, makes perfect sense. Thanks for sharing this information!

If you ain't a trader you can't over-hodl.

I hold all of my crypto in the Celsius Network and I get dividends every week. Why would I sell??