My method of Determining NFT collections profit potential

No one is right 100% of the time its not possible, this being said you can increase your likelihood of being correct more often through rigorous study. Having never gone further with my education then high school my method of studying has nothing to do with a class room.

Disclaimer

The contents of this write up are for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. ... By using this info, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found in this post.

Through scouring the internet and immersion in a market or blockchain I find I learn much more then you can by simply reading about it. The scientific method is truly what all of this boils down to for those a little rusty the scientific method is defined as quote.

"The process in the scientific method involves making conjectures (hypotheses), deriving predictions from them as logical consequences, and then carrying out experiments or empirical observations based on those predictions. A hypothesis is a conjecture, based on knowledge obtained while seeking answers to the question."

What would the question be, typically my question is one of efficient means by which to profit or advance in a given system. Fairly straight forward you learn just as much or more by being wrong as you do by being right.

In my experience trial and error is part of while the other part is calculative both the information pertaining to the individual blockchain matters, as does consumer psychology & info pertaining to users in said market.

Sounds much more difficult then it actually is everything is gradual mistakes can teach you more then success. Record and internalize what you learn & eventually reading the earnings potential becomes second nature.

Total P2P sales

The number of sales in a given day on a Person to Person or P2P market tells you quite a bit about an asset. As well as this same info throughout the last few months, what is the overall supply of said asset, & finally what utility does the asset have.

Burn or blend use case NFT collections tend to do the best especially if ownership is a necessity in order to advance or profit more efficiently. Splinterlands NFTs check all of these boxes as well as some others ill get to in a while. Splinterlands NFTs are required to advance in their tier system, blending them together increases the assets burn value and therefore the owners account power.

Not only does this effect the NFTs value but its overall effectiveness when used in the game.

You see you increase the utility value by making this NFT more useful when playing the game both by increasing the burn value and the stats of the NFT. Though both types of value increase by blending these NFTs the number of NFTs required to keep advancing increases in an expediential fashion.

Since 1000s of NFTs will be required to do this you need to know what the overall supply of the NFT is. Is this number permanently capped at a set amount or can the overall supply increase instead of just diminishing further.

Since this NFT is from the Splinterlands Untamed packs no more can be bought from the game directly. So establishing how many packs remain on a P2P market is fairly easy.

Adding these we get 844 untamed packs on Hive-Engine, I'm just going to assume there are less available on WAX. However upon examining WAX it has many more packs for sale but further from that fact I got the total number of packs left all together, so there is a little over 1,200 packs for sale on WAX & the total amount left to open below.

So there is a total number of 147,043 left to open IE (Burn) of which about 2,000 are on the open market. Since the (cave slug) is a common rarity there are only a best case scenario 4 per pack I'm aware this isn't possible considering how the packs are designed to function. But I'm over shooting the possibility to go with the most absurd conclusion.

So I'm going to assume we got broken packs containing all 4 possible cave slugs
making the total number on the market in and out of the broken cave slug only packs. We get 8,324 left in an absurd scenario of broken cave slug packs of these 8,324 cave slugs we need 400 to make a level 10 NFT the max amount you can combine 20.81 level 10 cave slugs in this improbably absurd scenario.

In a game with 1,000,000s of players 20.81 Stacked lvl10 cave slugs isn't enough to go around & you have to remember this isn't mathematically possible we overestimated to get that total!!!

Its unlikely that even all the packs remaining plus the private supply unlisted contains enough cave slugs to make half that total of level 10 Cave slugs.

So what am I saying cave slug to the moon buckle up, No I'm not but I am saying they have gotten increasingly valuable. This leads to where this market starts to get risky subjective market demand means economic bubbles form quickly with this type of asset.

Even with the utility of this asset its not the only asset in this colection with a usage being worse in certain circumstances when playing the game. In other words not every player is absolutely going to need one, this creates a point at which the scales tip & the price crashes.

How far a price has risen, the cause, and for how long are the most important factors but not the only ones when examining a subjective NFT market.

I like to use these factors for a risk v.s reward analysis, in other words your investment is it for long or short term. How long did the price take to get to this point, why the increase, how many people may want or need one. Compared with how much do you wish to risk for how long is that possible and so on.

When its all said and done its a guess an educated one to be sure but a guess all the same.

Game to gain

Is the colection part of a game or service that can help you earn back your losses or used to not have to risk anything to begin with. Rising star is my zero input colection meaning I can only profit though it takes longer to see a meaningful return.
https://www.risingstargame.com?referrer=chubb149
All I put into rising star was effort, Splinterlands is a colection I had initially put very little into and did well enough by playing the game that I decided to risk a little money when the situation presented itself.

Little persistence potions and luck almost a year later $ I have nearly cleared $4,000 USD in profits off of buying, selling, & opening packs of NFTs. I try not to put anything into this little venture as much as I possibly can and playing games connected to popular collections helps mitigate the amount of money I need to put into investing in NFTs.

I still look to collections with similar design elements as Splinterlands, as in a playable game with the NFTs being required to do so. However it appears the market wants a little more then fun and games lately.

NFT side hustles

Collecting is fine but what else you got seems to be the question the market is asking NFT creators lately. Splinterlands renting system is a first step of something like a passive ROI from your NFT colection.

They have a SPS airdrops system as well as the land plot system on Splinterlands roadmap but as of yet they have only the rental system.

So I have been looking into NFT collections that have passed this part in their development on WAX mostly.

One such colection that's gotten to the active land claim system is alien worlds, another is Rplanet. Prospectors, Darkcountry, Mission to mars, & metal War all have functional land plot NFTs generating a crypto reward for the owner.

Its because of the land plot system functioning in Mission to mars I stressed buying a pack at the time of their launch I paid 64 WAX for this pack 3 days prior look what it sold for.

200 WAX not bad I think it may go higher in price but it is not a sure thing as the ownership NFTs in these packs are finite in number.

Rplanet has a great number of features designed to turn NFTs into assets generating Crypto. They allow for a number of asset collections to be staked generating the owner AETHER a WAXP alt. They have their own Miner NFTs that when staked do the same. On top of this they have land plots generating several different forms of their crypto.

All about the NFT DEFI and Farming now a days asking for more then just appealing collectables or ownership of digital art. This may be a good thing or it could cause problems in the future this remains to be seen.

Bargen buys

If you watch a market long enough understand a NFT creators collections and how they tend to work can give you an idea of potential future demand. This is fairly common on WAX the market tends to drop the value of collections before a secondary use case is released

Though this isn't always the case most collections on WAX I made money on function this way and I buy on the dip. This can mitigate risk as buying at launch is only advisable if the colection has a smaller number of packs then average.

One recent example of me buying on a dip was Luna Park given its an R2 colection I was very skeptical of this colection as I have lost money on R2 NFTs before. Though skeptical I knew exactly how this colection would eventually function with a unreleased burn use case. So when the prices where less then 1 WAX I would buy some common ones under 2.5 WAX for uncommon ones.


once it launched I used the burn use case

I got one of these for some reason I think R2 is loosing their touch this isn't this collections bonus pack.

eventually I burned to mythic and then


Extraordinary- when you buy the parts low the end result is usual more profitable but this colection sucks.

I profited but to little to care, waste of time but the concept worked even with trash.

Observe

If your uncertain or new to an NFT market the best thing to do in my opinion is just watch it. Dont spend anything unless you understand why that asset has value subjective consumerisms fine but shouldn't be viewed as an investment.

So if your buying because you like the colection it appeals to you but this doesn't necessarily mean it holds value especially in the long run.

So when I decided to flip NFTs on WAX I just watched the market every day for a month, when I realized the volume of the assets sold I had to know all the reasons why before I felt comfortable risking money.

Last week I started buying these ultra horrors NFTs

I have seen ultra rare (Ultra Horrors) collections before so I had a hunch they would pay off.

See this was something I gleamed by watching the WAX atomic hub market, This is one of the what I call priority collections as in its a priority to check in on this colection. Bud Farm is another colection I consider priority

Record info

Got to say Hives sorta letting me cheat on this one my posts acting both as a record for reference and a crowd source of info or opinion on collections I'm looking into. This is why post interaction is so valuable because second opinions are valuable. Any time I can help make you the reader money I know I'm on the right track this is important when talking subjective market investments.

Sorry if this is offensive my whole life is an experiment data that I utilize to formulate better approaches to similar scenarios. This is helpful when your a contractor and even more so as an investor.

What im smoking

Well I stopped by Sun Provisions to try their new strain but first I have a weed quote from Bill Murry-

“I find it quite ironic that the most dangerous thing about weed is getting caught with it.” – Bill Murray
Dont we know it hell until recreational cops would bust medical patients regularly & rob dispensary owners in Michigan using search and seizure laws to make it imposable to contest as they took all your money for a legal defense.

Well dark times are fading here they are still very dark for others hang in there.

A strain created by sun provisions called Loo Goo, they are not great with records & the grower wasn't there at the time the staff thinks its an Indica dominant hybrid but no one was sure.

22.75% THC harvested last month fresh on the shelf is an understatement their Instagram clued me in so I got it as soon as I could. Not bad still a little fresh but impressive none the less.

Free NFT 1 time airdrop URL

I try to include a single claim airdrop URL for WAX wallet users containing free NFTs, It may only be claimed by the first lucky person to click the link. After claimed once the URL will no longer be active. The lucky reader should receive 6 NFTs if you received less then 6 check your whitelist settings.
https://wax.atomichub.io/trading/link/190514?key=5JjGZfui73ZYMXsqXfFK8SfGbpnBYEBh68EPcZdYSrChcXDSSJ5

Once claimed please let the other readers know in the comments it helps.

Perhaps your interested in purchasing any of my NFTs from my ever expanding collection you may do so here.

My stock constantly rotates so it changes daily
https://wax.atomichub.io/explorer/account/akyqy.wam

Prospectors topping the NFT sale value for 3 days now also a free to play game check it out at the link below. BTW they have roulette so the Martingale system works here however no site reward and its not a large project so doing this could be detrimental. this game is free it makes real crypto give it a shot its not bad honestly you can make quite a bit on it.
https://prospectors.io?waxref=akyqy.wam

more free WAX games, rewarding free NFTs/Crypto
https://alienworlds.io/
https://rplanet.io/
https://collect.social/referral?r=akyqy.wam
Rising star is a totally free HIVE game no input for steady output my kind of investment.
https://www.risingstargame.com?referrer=chubb149

Up to 4 NFTs on Womplay each of which adds to my accounts EOS bonusses daily. Nice little system of improving payout through involving their NFT collections which increases their Utility value. Making it a investment not a frivolous expenditure this helps market demand increasing price.
This makes 5 total NFTs thus far & $1.31 EOS for free increasing in payout due to the ownership perks of the NFTs. Seriously it takes very little effort once you have NFTs which give EOS payout bonuses each week.
https://womplay.io/?ref=EDHNQLM